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December 31, 2019 WTI and WCS Oil Price Predictions

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  • December 31, 2019 WTI and WCS Oil Price Predictions

    Happy New Year to all.

    First a reprise of 2018 which started with a lot of promise in the oil markets but ended in another bloodbath.

    WTI closed at $45.41 on December 31, which means that KC's pessimistic prediction of $38 was closest to the mark. Next closest was Howie at $54.40. Congratulations to KC for his 2018 prognostication skills and honourable mention to Howie. You can read for yourself how far off the mark the rest of us ended up in the first 16 posts of last year's thread. I won't depress you with the details.

    Rules for 2019 are the same as last year with the addition of a new guess for the Western Canada Select (WCS) oil price. Guess the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and/or a barrel of Western Canada Select (WCS) quoted in US dollars at the end of the last trading day of 2019 which is Tuesday, December 31.

    To be counted, a specific price for one or both WTI and WCS is needed, not a price range, and must be posted on this thread before March 31.

    To ensure a level playing field, posters who guess early on can revise their guess (if they want) until the end of March. I'm going to hold off for a day or two before rendering my predictions but thought I'd get the ball rolling in case anyone else was ready to guess.

  • #2
    FYI: some X-references to the old oil price forecast threads in case anyone is interested:



    Oil Price Prediction - December 31, 2015
    http://www.connect2edmonton.ca/showt...cember-31-2015


    December 30, 2016 WTI Oil Price Prediction
    http://www.connect2edmonton.ca/showt...ice-Prediction


    December 29, 2017 WTI Crude Oil Price Predictions
    http://www.connect2edmonton.ca/showt...ce-Predictions


    December 31, 2018 WTI Crude Oil Price Predictions
    http://www.connect2edmonton.ca/showt...ce-Predictions



    .
    Last edited by KC; 01-01-2019, 09:51 AM.

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    • #3
      Wti - $50.00
      wcs - $30.00
      "Talk minus action equals zero." - Joe Keithley, D. O. A.

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      • #4
        wti 70.65
        wcs 56.65

        not sure whether that makes me an optimist in regard to oil prices or a pessimist in regard to world affairs....
        "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

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        • #5
          After the events of the past several years I seriously don't have a clue, but here goes:

          WTI - $55.00
          WCS - $40.00

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          • #6
            Canada is currently learning lessons as a young country when it comes to nation building.

            I believe WTI will hover around 65 per bbl and WCS will narrow the gap between using supply management and the coming online of Enbridge’s replacement line running to Wisconsin. WCS to 58 per bbl by year’s end.
            There was no need to change that plaque. We are the City of Champions.

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            • #7
              Somewhat optimistic on my part but anyway:
              WTI - $80
              WCS - $70
              “You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012

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              • #8
                Oil prices likely to rise significantly--perhaps $5 to $10 per barrel--after Saudi Arabia's production is cut by half following drone attacks on their production facilities.

                https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/14/busin...ack/index.html

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by OffWhyte View Post
                  Oil prices likely to rise significantly--perhaps $5 to $10 per barrel--after Saudi Arabia's production is cut by half following drone attacks on their production facilities.

                  https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/14/busin...ack/index.html
                  Maybe, but maybe not. This is the moment the world will realize oil is not as important and scarce as we once thought is. US consumers will be protected as this facility is used to sweeten Saudi oil, the quality of crude Shale now well supports, at least domestically. If the outage lasts beyond a week or so, China, India etc have a nice cover to import Iranian oil. US will bark at Iran, but with election on the way, no further punishment on their oil will be implemented to avoid oil price rally. This incident will throws a wrench into Saudi’s plan of an IPO of their oil company but I doubt by year end oil prices would budge much.

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                  • #10
                    Russia has also cut back on production to prop up prices. They can ramp back up fairly quickly.

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                    • #11
                      ^^Good points. I was referring mostly to a near-term spike driven by speculation rather than fundamentals. WTI up 12% this evening to $61.60.

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                      • #12
                        “Oil Prices May Slump Heavily In 2020”
                        Oil Prices May Slump Heavily In 2020 | OilPrice.com

                        “OPEC has been overcomplying with its production quotas. U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and, to a lesser extent Iran, have helped this. And yet, prices have failed to rise again and stay higher. Brent has been hovering around $60 a barrel and WTI has been rangebound between $50 and $58. And now, prices are due to fall even further if demand forecasts from some of the world’s top energy agencies are correct.

                        Bloomberg’s Julian Lee warned this week even tougher times were ahead for the oil-producing cartel and its partners next year as oil demand slowed down, according to the Energy Information Administration and OPEC itself.”

                        https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...y-In-2020.html

                        Oil Demand Growth Weakest In Nearly A Decade

                        https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...-A-Decade.html


                        Saudi oil attacks: Will fuel prices go up? - BBC News

                        Saudi Arabia's state-owned company Aramco is the world's biggest oil producer, generating 10% of the world's oil, but it is also one of the world's most profitable businesses.

                        For a drone attack to have knocked half of its - and 5% of the world's - oil supply offline, speaks to the vulnerability of their plants and in turn to the vulnerability of a vital part of the global energy infrastructure.

                        ...

                        A barrel of crude oil cost $60 (£48 ) on Friday and some analysts believe that could spike up to $80 (£64) or more - a knee-jerk response from traders to the shock attacks and to the many unknowns still surrounding the scale of the damage.

                        ...

                        For Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at the Royal Bank of Canada, these drone attacks are "a game changer in the escalating Iranian regional stand-off".
                        ...


                        https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49708220

                        Bolding mine
                        Last edited by KC; 15-09-2019, 06:22 PM.

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                        • #13
                          wti is at 83cad bbl today sept 16 due to the explosions in Saudi.
                          Last edited by Drumbones; 16-09-2019, 11:06 AM.
                          Just enjoying another day in paradise.

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                          • #14
                            Bumping up this thread to remind myself to put a wrap on it on New Year's Day and to start a new one for 2020. Too few guesses in 2019. Maybe there will be a few more next year.

                            BTW, here is a link to my favourite source for tracking oil and natural gas prices: https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/ene...and-gas-prices

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