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December 31, 2020 WTI and WCS Oil Price Predictions

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  • December 31, 2020 WTI and WCS Oil Price Predictions

    Happy New Year/Decade to all.

    2019 did see some price recovery in the global oil market with a WTI closing price on December 31 of $61.06 US, an increase of almost $16 US per barrel compared to a year earlier. The Alberta oil market - due to ongoing takeaway capacity constraints - did not fare as well. WCS closed at $38.31 US yesterday with a trend toward a growing differential compared to WTI in the latter half of 2019.

    There were very few guesses posted by C2E members in 2019. Stevey_G's guess of $65 for WTI was closest, and my guess of $40 for WCS ended up be closest to the actual price. Congratulations to Stevey_G and me.

    The 2019 guesses that were posted are available on this thread: https://www.connect2edmonton.ca/foru...ce-predictions

    I encourage C2E to submit guesses to this thread of closing prices in US dollars per barrel for both WTI and WCS on December 31, 2020.

    The thread will be open for your guesses (and brief rationale) until March 31. I will post my own guesses in the next day or two.

  • #2
    Okay. I'll go first.

    WTI: $64
    WCS: $40

    Comment


    • #3
      Wti $72
      wcs $53
      My antidepressent drug of choice is running. Cheaper with less side effects!

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      • #4
        wti 70.65
        wcs 56.65

        same numbers and same rationale as last year...
        "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

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        • #5
          Just an update, WTI May Contract at -, that's a negative, $35!!!
          http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM

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          • #6
            Keep in mind that's a function of the May contract closing tomorrow. Whoever is left holding the contract has to take delivery, hence why it's gone so negative. June's sitting at ~22 still, but dropping.

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            • #7
              in other news, the western canadian select oil price has remained around usd $10/b, which is what partly supported tsx levels today.

              in essence, canadian oil was trading at a $24 premium to wti's -$37.60 close (since recovering after hours to -$14)!

              quite an anomaly.
              Last edited by kcantor; 20-04-2020, 04:44 PM.
              "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

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              • #8
                A friend at Suncor said that's because refineries still need the heavier oil and can't easily switch to the lighter, cheaper stuff.

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                • #9
                  https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/19...ore-oil-tycoon

                  wasn’t sure where to post this as it doesn’t warrant a new thread so thought this was as good a place as any...
                  "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

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                  • #10
                    Wti 37
                    wcs 22
                    Nisi Dominus Frustra

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                    • #11
                      Haven't been on here in forever, and I'm sure this has likely been posted, and hope this thread is okay to put it in....

                      https://edmontonjournal.com/opinion/...-a89a8d0192b5/ David Staples: Green activists finally admit that green power is polluting and inefficient

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                      • #12
                        I've tried several times to post links that show why that documentary is full of falsehoods, out of date information, intellectual dishonest and misinformation but the spam filter keeps unapproving them. But in any case, that "doc" is basically full of crap.

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