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  • #61
    Markets are taking a bit of a dip.

    If the slide continues it could be a potential rare Christmas present to long term investors.


    • #62
      Yale's Robert Shiller: Fed is being reasonable amid rate hikes - YouTube


      • #63
        Interest’ing article:

        Sizing Up the Bond Market - Barron's
        James Grant

        “There was nothing precipitous about the tempo of rising rates in the early years of the previous bear bond market. Long-term government yields were 2.25% in 1946. They were 3.25% in 1956. You hardly noticed they’d moved.
        Then, again, past performance guarantees nothing. Big deficits and radical monetary policy could force a faster rate of rise this time. America needed 192 years to amass its first $1 trillion in gross public debt; it hit the mark in 1981. Now there’s $22 trillion on the books, with another $1 trillion looming in this ostensibly prosperous fiscal year alone.”...

        James Grant
        Well in that era, in the '90s, people in fact did talk about it. It turns out that the debt was not such a problem because as recently as 1998 Bill Clinton said that he could see the possibility of extinguishing every last penny of it by the year 2015.

        James Grant
        James Grant
        But nonetheless, in the 1990s, people talked about it. They stopped talking about it fairly recently, which on Wall Street is always a good sign that something is possibly about to happen.

        James Grant
        James Grant
        When people lose interest in a particular company or a topic or a trade, that's at least a starting point for investigating, when something is in the papers, when it's on the tip of everyone's tongue, that's generally a good reason to stay away, but we now have the pregnant silence with respect to public debt.

        Last edited by KC; 21-06-2019, 06:12 PM.


        • #64
          Note the oil patch comments.

          U.S. corporate insiders selling shares at fastest pace since financial crisis a decade ago | CBC News

          Last edited by KC; 09-09-2019, 02:02 PM.


          • #65
            First time he’s been short the S&p500 “since before the financial crisis” “2007...” “commodity prices invariably go down”. (Listen at 3:40 min)

            Investors should short the S&P 500: Gary Shilling
            Oct 2019

            Last edited by KC; 20-10-2019, 06:29 AM.


            • #66
              This guy’s timing on his books seems to be a good long term contrary indicator.

              James K. Glassman: Why I Was Wrong About 'Dow 36,000' - WSJ

              By James K. Glassman
              Updated Feb. 24, 2011

              “Mr. Glassman is the author of "Safety Net: The Strategy for De- Risking Your Investments in a Time of Turbulence," just out from Crown Business. He is executive director of the George W. Bush Institute.“

              David Moon: Record stock prices not predictive

              October 31, 3019

              “ Knowing that the DJIA is at 27,000 tells us nothing about where the DJIA ought to be or what the stocks in the index are worth. Nor does it help answer many investors’ most pressing question: where is the market headed?”

              I have some other interesting books lying around. Kiplinger personal finance columnist James Glassman wrote “Dow 36,000” in 1999, at the peak of the Internet bubble. Although Glassman predicted we would reach 36000 by 2005 (the DJIA peaked around 14000 that year), 20 years later we are still waiting. Following the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession and a 55 percent DJIA drop, Glassman held to his “trend continues” mindset, penning “Safety Net: The Strategy for De-Risking Your Investments in a Time of Turbulence.” In the 2011 book, Glassman acknowledged that “Dow 36000” was incorrectly optimistic and that investors should move away from equities.”

              Last edited by KC; 25-11-2019, 08:43 AM.


              • #67
                KC's bump caused me to go back and look at past posts. This one is still very applicable:

                Originally posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
                Market timing is a mug's game. You don't just have to predict a crisis, you have to predict the timing of it. And then you have to predict the timing of the recovery. Many of the doomsday predictors had been doing so for years before the crisis finally hit, and almost none got the timing right. If you'd listened to them and sold in 2006, you'd have missed a huge amount of the run up before the crisis.
                All we've been hearing for the past few years is that a (global) recession and/or bear market were going to happen any day now, that the expansion/bull market had run it's course and the bubble would be popped by Trump's trade policy or whatever else. Given that inevitability, everyone should have moved to cash or de-risked or whatever. Anyone having done so would have missed out on a great 2019. For my index portfolio (Bonds 30%, Canadian equity 23%, global equity 47%), 2019 is going to have an annualized return of around 15-20%, barring any large swings in the markets over the next month (wait for it...). That means it'll be the 2nd or 3rd best calendar year since the Great Recession (2009 and 2013 being the other two big years).

                No one can predict the future of markets. Don't believe anyone who claims they can, or that you should base your investment decisions on that ability.