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  • #46
    ETFs like MOAT and dividend achievers already somewhat reflect some of that sentiment. Also there are several conglomerates that provide diversification and also think and act long term and ignore demands for quarterly forecasts.

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    • #47
      Think long term...


      Oaktree's Howard Marks Says Donald Trump Scaring Investors - Bloomberg Business

      “They’re scaring the hell out of people,”


      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ring-investors


      This $9 Billion Fund Manager Says He's Sticking With Cash - Bloomberg Business


      The issue, as Douglass sees it, is valuations. If the economy recovers and the Federal Reserve gradually raises interest rates, some of the best-loved stocks are going to look overpriced. Once they fall he’ll start buying again, he said.

      Expensive Shares

      High-quality shares “are still at very expensive levels, effectively factoring in a zero interest rate world virtually forever,” he said. “We’re holding cash rather than the most defensive equities we would have otherwise held.”
      ...

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-happy-in-cash
      Last edited by KC; 18-02-2016, 09:04 PM.

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      • #48
        I've been linking to Hussman's bearish articles for a few years now. This one is worth reading.

        I can't quote from him, but I can re-quote one he is using: "Buy not on optimism, but on arithmetic."-Benjamin Graham


        Bearishness Is Strictly For Informed Optimists

        http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160314.htm

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        • #49
          I suppose each generation bring their own favorite style to investing too. Here is for your Friday Afternoon/weekend reading pleasure: YOLO investing style:

          Market Watch, 5-Apr.-2016
          There’s a loud corner of Reddit where millennials look to get rich or die tryin’

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          • #50
            Originally posted by FamilyMan View Post
            I suppose each generation bring their own favorite style to investing too. Here is for your Friday Afternoon/weekend reading pleasure: YOLO investing style:

            Market Watch, 5-Apr.-2016
            There’s a loud corner of Reddit where millennials look to get rich or die tryin’
            Pity. I understood at an early age that a dollar lost at an early age is far, far worse than a dollar lost in old age. Figuratively, losses compound for the rest of one's lifespan, and beyond.

            Unfortunately, the internet aggregates the outliers and makes them seem normal. So these bets will mostly loose but the followers, like followers of value investing gurus, growth investing gurus, etc, all feel that they can perform like the lucky few superstars.

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            • #51
              well, not everyone is as smart as you. This is also a symptom of bigger societal problems. When even six-figure-salaries can't afford to live the American dream. When smartphones have reduced attention spans to seconds and no one really reads a book anymore. The age of instant gratifications and reality TVs. The inequality and so on.

              But, hey, take it easy. This was meant to be a fun read. Just look how much fun Mark Zuckerberg has Enjoy!



              Source

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              • #52
                What I know and what I practice are two different things.

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                • #53
                  Sensible article but I think he's wrong on the age thing. Older people tend to be far, far less reactionary over "the latest threat" being promoted. It's due to something called "wisdom" that occurs with age.

                  However, there's nothing wrong with being conservative. The idea that you're a loser if you aren't getting S&P500 or better returns is nonsense. One, markets can and do go down and can go down for extended periods of time. Older people that have held off on a balanced investing approach to capture higher probably equity returns should be concerned that equities could drop. At age 70 or so one's remaining savings have to sustain no matter what happens in equity and bond markets and the reality that short-term equity losses are highly likely to revert over any 10 year period is nonsense in terms of their own remaining time, longevity, etc. In other words, if they are overexposed and know it, and know that they may be on thin ice if markets drop, they may be right to feel edgy and any sense of panic may be justified. They just need to avoid knee jerk subjective, manic-depressive responses.


                  Beware the Pessimists!
                  John Rekenthaler
                  24 Feb 2017


                  Second, fear plays to the elderly. The young respond to hope and greed—day trading, pyramid schemes, double-your-money offers. (Those were my father’s idea of “investing.”) The way to separate them from their money is to convince them that life is surprisingly easy. There are shortcuts that others just haven’t figured out. It’s the opposite with the old. They are all too willing to believe that the world is degrading. Tell them that their fears are correct. The cataclysm really is coming.

                  The third is politics. I’ve written before how right-wing talk radio hosts impoverished their listeners by persuading them to sell stocks during Barack Obama's presidency, because the Democrats would bring financial ruin. Uh-huh. My acquaintance has the opposite problem: She dreads the “Trumpocalypse.” Different party, same diagnosis.

                  Most of you, I realize, need no prompts to ignore the prophets. After all, you are reading this article, not that one. For such readers, treat this column as a friendly reminder to stay on the straight and narrow path. And consider the possibility of sending it to friends of a certain age who are feeling insecure about the financial markets, and might be prone to being sold a scare package. If this article helps to prevent such an action, it will be among my more useful deeds.

                  http://beta.morningstar.com/articles...essimists.html
                  Last edited by KC; 27-02-2017, 10:35 AM.

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                  • #54
                    Family warns about online investment scam after businessman’s suicide | Edmonton Journal

                    http://edmontonjournal.com/news/loca...ommits-suicide

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                    • #55
                      BlackRock Warns It Would Be ‘Folly’ to Ignore Home Capital Woes
                      by Maciej Onoszko
                      May 3, 2017

                      excerpt:

                      "The focus now is on the potential for a systemic issue across the economy and it would be folly just to ignore that," Basdeo said.

                      The Canadian dollar has fallen 2.5 percent over the past month, the worst performance among Group of 10 currencies. It was little changed at C$1.3708 per U.S. dollar as of 2:18 p.m. in Toronto, after sliding to the weakest since February 2016 on Tuesday.



                      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-capital-woes

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                      • #56
                        "But having said that, I must admit to having detracted from my usefulness as an investor by assuming that investors overall would at least respond sensibly most of the time to the data they are given. And they do not. " Jeremy Grantham

                        Grantham: Why Are Stock Market Prices So High? - Barron's

                        "For the record, if you need yet another rebuttal of the Lucas/Fama and French model of economic efficiency on the part of investors, this model is it: a long-term testimonial, and a very stable one, to investor behavior that they would have to describe as inefficient by their definition. And though this investor behavior may be loosely described as rational, it is certainly economically and financially innumerate. I am happy to say that I never believed a word of their theory on the efficiency of the market, which I have always thought is better described as a behavioral jungle. But having said that, I must admit to having detracted from my usefulness as an investor by assuming that investors overall would at least respond sensibly most of the time to the data they are given. And they do not. The effectiveness and persistency of our behavioral model, almost all the components of which should not work in a resolutely sensible world, let alone an efficient one, should have persuaded me to change my thinking years ago. But, here I am, trying to explain during these last nine months or so why the general discount rate of assets has dropped by roughly two percentage points from the 1900 to 1997 average. ..."

                        ...They felt this way from 1925 to 1997 and they felt exactly the same way in our new era of 1997 to 2017. So, behaviorally it is absolutely not a new era. It is precisely – to a 0.90 correlation – the same ole same ole. The peaks of 1929 and 1965 delivered favorable margins and inflation inputs but for a very short while in both cases. In contrast, the period of 1997 to 2017 has delivered to investors their preferred conditions almost the entire time, with only two very quick time-outs for market breaks. Can the market really be this easy to explain? Well, it has been for 92 years! And what can we investors do with this information? It tells us..."



                        http://www.barrons.com/articles/gran...igh-1501794059


                        Bolding was mine
                        Last edited by KC; 08-08-2017, 04:16 PM.

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                        • #57
                          Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin - Hussman Funds

                          https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mmc171218/

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                          • #58
                            Measuring the Bubble - Hussman Funds
                            https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180201/

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                            • #59
                              Holding cash:

                              Mark Cuban owns just a handful of stocks and 'a whole lot of cash' because he's worried about the market

                              "I'm down to maybe four dividend-owning stocks, two shorts, and Amazon and Netflix," the billionaire says.

                              "We borrowed from the future to kind of pump up the current market," says Cuban, an outspoken Trump critic.

                              "There just no way where you can say, 'I just trust everything that's going on.' And that concerns me," he says.

                              Excerpts:
                              ...
                              "Put aside tariffs, put aside what the president is doing, he's got his reasons," said Cuban, an outspoken critic of Donald Trump as a candidate and as president. "There just no way where you can say, 'I just trust everything that's going on.' And that concerns me."

                              "We borrowed from the future to kind of pump up the current market," said Cuban, owner of the NBA's Dallas Mavericks. Running up the national debt is just as bad as the Federal Reserve continuing historically low interest rates much longer than needed after the 2008 financial crisis, he contended.

                              "If I get a feeling that [economic] growth will continue at 4-plus percent and the debt will then come down, then I'll get back into the market," said Cuban.


                              https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/13/mark...aboolainternal

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                              • #60
                                Line of Inquiry: John H. Cochrane on how to prevent financial crises
                                Chicago Booth Review
                                499 views

                                https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCth...VUCW0KEbiyINcg

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