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  • Edmonton Centre Riding discussion

    For discussing candiate platforms, praises, and concerns.
    Ow

  • #2
    Project Democracy has poll data by riding on easy to use pages. Here's the one for Edmonton-Centre.

    Hawn is leading but with weaker numbers than last election. The Liberals have regained a lot of ground and I would guess that having Anne McLellan actively campaign for Mary MacDonald is helping.

    My personal analysis is that since the election was called the Liberals have climbed from 'no chance' to 'slim chance'. Lewis Cardinal is still pulling numbers fewer than the NDs received last round. It will be interesting to see if on voting day enough NDP voters decide to vote Liberal to swing it. I've spoken to a few people who are regular, traditional NDP voters with Cardinal signs on their lawns who thinking of voting Liberal if it looks like MacDonald is close Hawn.

    So the question is: Can MacDonald get the numbers up to striking distance?

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

    Comment


    • #3
      I certainly hope so. When I first came to Canada that clown Hawn came a'knocking, and the second he heard I couldn't vote he actually turned and left. He didn't say a single word, just marched away when he heard I couldn't vote for him.

      Screw that. Left a sour taste in my mouth ever since and I'm actively campaigning against him now, where I probably wouldn't have if he wasn't a jerk to me. It's personal now =P

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      • #4
        Good grief -- Laurie's been nailing his signs into trees!
        “Son, one day this will be an iconic structure shaping Edmonton’s skyline.”

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by JamesL View Post
          Good grief -- Laurie's been nailing his signs into trees!
          What a tool. Who does that?

          Comment


          • #6
            Mary has been door knocking for over a year and a half. She is very serious about winning this riding, she has great people supporting her and on her team. www.electmary.ca

            Hey, I'll vote Liberal here if someone in Edmonton Strathcona is willing to vote for Linda :P
            www.decl.org

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            • #7
              ^Consider it done, GreenSPACE.
              “Son, one day this will be an iconic structure shaping Edmonton’s skyline.”

              Comment


              • #8
                Projections by http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com have Mary consistently within 3-6% of Hawn. These are only projections though based on large assumptions. Mary and her team know at the door, though, that her support is strong enough to be a serious threat to the Tories. Hence why Martin and Ignatieff where here Saturday working with Mary.
                www.decl.org

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                • #9
                  Projections by EKOS have Mary in the lead for the first time - http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-conte...il_19_2011.pdf I'm inferring this considering they have 1 seat projected in Alberta...
                  Last edited by GreenSPACE; 19-04-2011, 01:45 PM.
                  www.decl.org

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                  • #10
                    It's a bit odd that they'd rate Mary McDonald with a higher chance of success than Linda Duncan (which is what their projection appears to be). I think, maybe, there was a transcription error and the projection is actually 27 Conservative - 1 NDP.
                    “Son, one day this will be an iconic structure shaping Edmonton’s skyline.”

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                    • #11
                      ^ya, who knows.
                      www.decl.org

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                      • #12
                        It's possible Duncan could lose the seat, Project Democracy's poll rollup puts Duncan behind as of three days ago. They haven't added in the newer polls yet.

                        Three Hundred Eight has her still holding the seat..

                        The big problem is that these are national polls whose sample size at the riding level is very low. It's really hard to say how accurate they are.

                        "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          A good set of candidate interviews from the Edmonton Journal. Me likes! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIHUk...embedded#at=46
                          www.decl.org

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
                            It's possible Duncan could lose the seat, Project Democracy's poll rollup puts Duncan behind as of three days ago. They haven't added in the newer polls yet.

                            Three Hundred Eight has her still holding the seat..

                            The big problem is that these are national polls whose sample size at the riding level is very low. It's really hard to say how accurate they are.
                            I think at the riding level it will largely come down to turnout. Linda Duncan runs very good campaigns and her supporters are highly motivated, but Hastman is running a better campaign than Jaffer ever did. This is going to be a really exciting riding to watch on election night.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I would take all those polling sites with a huge grain of salt. Even local phone polls are sort of accurate at best, but most of those sites never take local issues, or the actual candidates into account.

                              This site predicts riding by riding - http://www.electionprediction.org/
                              Interesting to read up on the swing ridings on here.

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