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Thread: What are we going to do when oil prices collapse?

  1. #901

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    That is what is saving Edmonton's economy right now and thank goodness! Whereas, our partners to the south - who's ego was so high they thought they were in space - is a one trick pony.

  2. #902

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    ^ I think most Calgarians expected price and economic volatility too. I'm sure many in their private sector had the attitude of making 'hay while the sun shines'.


    Regarding the hot news today about the drop in capital spending (see article below). In percentage terms I'm not sure how this compares with the past (of course in dollar terms whatever happens today will be record breaking...), however, the nature of the business changed here from drilling to building massively expensive capital structures to produce oil sands, while the new shale drilling model ruling the USvand southern Canadian territories is more like the old conventional drilling business model.

    Capital Investment in Canada's Oil and Gas Industry Down 62% in 2 Years | news.sys-con.com

    http://news.sys-con.com/node/3757369

  3. #903

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    Quote Originally Posted by ctzn-Ed View Post

    That is what is saving Edmonton's economy right now and thank goodness! Whereas, our partners to the south - who's ego was so high they thought they were in space - is a one trick pony.
    Edmonton has a few more ponies (pharmaceuticals / IT), but not that many more (Calgary has other strengths, like CP rail HQ, and YYC cargo facilities, tourism/stampede). The difference is more the nature of those ponies within oil and gas. You still need oil and gas trades people to keep the refineries going, to maintain the equipment, to finish capital projects. But you don't really need a team of a dozen engineers if you aren't doing new projects, and you don't need all the regulatory and support staff that come with them. So the engineers / support staff go first (especially those on contract, of which there are many), the tradespeople might start getting cut eventually as capital projects finish, but not to the same extent. Edmonton has historically weathered oil and gas downturns better for this reason, but the service companies in particular are having a very ugly time right now, so its going to sadly, probably get worse before better. The good news is oil prices have ticked up a bit lately to an almost "sustainable" level I think. The other bit of good news for both cities is a lot of construction contracts were started before the downturn, so that keeps some momentum (even if the towers and similar end up empty when they are completed).
    Last edited by moahunter; 07-04-2016 at 08:13 AM.

  4. #904

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ctzn-Ed View Post

    That is what is saving Edmonton's economy right now and thank goodness! Whereas, our partners to the south - who's ego was so high they thought they were in space - is a one trick pony.
    Edmonton has a few more ponies (pharmaceuticals / IT), but not that many more (Calgary has other strengths, like CP rail HQ, and YYC cargo facilities, tourism/stampede). The difference is more the nature of those ponies within oil and gas. You still need oil and gas trades people to keep the refineries going, to maintain the equipment, to finish capital projects. But you don't really need a team of a dozen engineers if you aren't doing new projects, and you don't need all the regulatory and support staff that come with them. So the engineers / support staff go first (especially those on contract, of which there are many), the tradespeople might start getting cut eventually as capital projects finish, but not to the same extent. Edmonton has historically weathered oil and gas downturns better for this reason, but the service companies in particular are having a very ugly time right now, so its going to sadly, probably get worse before better. The good news is oil prices have ticked up a bit lately to an almost "sustainable" level I think. The other bit of good news for both cities is a lot of construction contracts were started before the downturn, so that keeps some momentum (even if the towers and similar end up empty when they are completed).
    Being a government town, lot of Edmonton's economy has little to do with the oil sector, except that, it is the oil sector that funds much of government spending. And "he who has the gold, makes the rules."

    Even the NDP should agree that the oil sector should rightly feel that their views on tax levels, investment etc are somewhat legitimate and should be strongly considered because of the level of industry support for government spending. Similarly, the NDP feel that they should have a say over how AHS operates because (as was mentioned in the news today) 40% of the province budget is health care related. Cash always comes with expectations and strings attached no matter how much the system states it's a "hands off" relationship.

  5. #905
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    I don't think that works when the "industry support" we're talking about is simply paying taxes and royalties levied by the government. They should have just the same say in how the government minds it's finances as the guy I sell my house to should have a say in how I spend mine.

  6. #906

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    Canada’s oilpatch suffers biggest drop in investment in almost 70 years, CAPP warns.

    Capital spending in the Canadian oilpatch sector is set to drop by US$50 billion since 2014 — the largest two-year-decline since at least 1947 — thanks to the protracted plunge in oil prices, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers said Thursday.
    “We have had the largest two-year reduction that we have had at any time since we started keeping track,” Tim McMillan, president and chief executive officer of the industry group, said in an interview. “It is reflective of what we are seeing on the ground in Canada.”
    Investments were expected to decline 62 per cent to $31 billion in 2016, from a record $81 billion in 2014, and $48 billion in 2015, according to CAPP, which represents the oil and gas industry. The oilsands may see investments drop to around $17 billion this year, half of the figure spent in 2014.
    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/canad...382/story.html
    "The man who does not read has no advantage over the man who cannot read." –Mark Twain

  7. #907

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    Quote Originally Posted by highlander View Post
    I don't think that works when the "industry support" we're talking about is simply paying taxes and royalties levied by the government. They should have just the same say in how the government minds it's finances as the guy I sell my house to should have a say in how I spend mine.
    No of course not, but as taxpayers, big taxpayers, they can throw their weight around and threaten to do things that will reduce government receipts.

  8. #908

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gemini View Post
    Canada’s oilpatch suffers biggest drop in investment in almost 70 years, CAPP warns.

    Capital spending in the Canadian oilpatch sector is set to drop by US$50 billion since 2014 — the largest two-year-decline since at least 1947 — thanks to the protracted plunge in oil prices, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers said Thursday.
    “We have had the largest two-year reduction that we have had at any time since we started keeping track,” Tim McMillan, president and chief executive officer of the industry group, said in an interview. “It is reflective of what we are seeing on the ground in Canada.”
    Investments were expected to decline 62 per cent to $31 billion in 2016, from a record $81 billion in 2014, and $48 billion in 2015, according to CAPP, which represents the oil and gas industry. The oilsands may see investments drop to around $17 billion this year, half of the figure spent in 2014.
    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/canad...382/story.html
    And my thoughts on this are in post #904 above.

    Additionally, as the world consumes the now cheaper oil first, and continues to grow global demand, eventually we should see a return of large capital investment to build massive high-up-front-cost oil sands plants. Eventually.

  9. #909

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    Nothing new but posting for the record... It's a volatile commodity.


    Alberta expects 90 percent plunge in 2017 royalty revenue from 2014

    Reuters April 7, 2016

    CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) - Alberta expects oil and gas royalty revenue to plunge almost 90 percent next year to around C$1 billion ($761.73 million) from 2014 levels, the Canadian oil-producing province's Premier Rachel Notley said on Thursday.

    This is roller coaster we've all been talking about," Notley said in a televised address ahead of the release of the provincial budget next week.

    ...

    http://ca.reuters.com/article/domest.../idCAKCN0X5029

    Last edited by KC; 11-04-2016 at 10:27 PM.

  10. #910

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    What are we going to do when oil prices recover?


    Oil prices will slowly rebound, energy analysts predict

    Deloitte report forecasts $80 US by 2022 as global glut shrinks
    By John Gibson, CBC News Apr 05, 2016


    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...itte-1.3521298

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    ^That would be good news indeed but I wonder at what point will the oil companies ramp up their capital investments. Another couple of years?

    One of my relatives is an engineer who got laid off from WorleyParsons last year and was hoping to get hired back on contract this year but looks llike that won't happen now. It will probably be at least a couple of years before he gets back into the game.
    Last edited by norwoodguy; 12-04-2016 at 12:53 AM.
    Did my dog just fall into a pothole???

  12. #912

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    Unfortunately it isn't really news at all. Not the type that reports facts anyway. It's reporting of near useless opinion. There may be a kernel of truth in the opinions and reasoning so they are worth reading and banking - way, way back in one's mind.

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    Default What the oil recovery will look like

    National Post

    Meaningful cash will start to trickle back into the system once oil prices pop above $50/B again. But the money won’t be going back into the ground – the first dollars will be headed to bank vaults, placating bruised bankers who pushed out too many loans. Next, producing companies will have to take time to restock their wallets and heal their balance sheets. The result: investment, activity and employment momentum will lag oil price recovery by many months, well into 2017.
    Unlike the last recovery, tomorrow’s returning investment dollars won’t be spent across the full spectrum of oil projects. Prudent, selective, cautious and impatient; these new adjectives will be used to describe “short cycle” investing. The first meaningful dollars will go back into North American tight oil plays in the U.S. and Canada, where capital can be minimally exposed before returns are realized. In Canada, this means that the spending split between oilsands and non-oilsands will shift significantly to the latter, as it was up to the mid-2000s.
    Did my dog just fall into a pothole???

  14. #914

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    Quote Originally Posted by norwoodguy View Post
    National Post

    Meaningful cash will start to trickle back into the system once oil prices pop above $50/B again. But the money won’t be going back into the ground – the first dollars will be headed to bank vaults, placating bruised bankers who pushed out too many loans. Next, producing companies will have to take time to restock their wallets and heal their balance sheets. The result: investment, activity and employment momentum will lag oil price recovery by many months, well into 2017.
    Unlike the last recovery, tomorrow’s returning investment dollars won’t be spent across the full spectrum of oil projects. Prudent, selective, cautious and impatient; these new adjectives will be used to describe “short cycle” investing. The first meaningful dollars will go back into North American tight oil plays in the U.S. and Canada, where capital can be minimally exposed before returns are realized. In Canada, this means that the spending split between oilsands and non-oilsands will shift significantly to the latter, as it was up to the mid-2000s.
    Pretty much what we've been saying. The days of big capital investment here are over until prices rise to the point of almost guaranteeing adequate returns no matter what the future volatility dies to prices.


    Interesting article and ideas in it...



    Could lower wages be a solution to oil slump pain?

    Alberta Oil Magazine

    To illustrate the point, ATB Financial’s Todd Hirsch draws a contrast between Canada’s energy and agricultural commodities. “I keep reminding people that oil is only at a 12-year low, and in the grand scheme of commodities that’s really not very unusual,” Hirsch says. “Farmers in Alberta today still seem to get by with the price of wheat being the same as it was in 1976. It’s just that, over the decades, they’ve constantly become more efficient. But the energy sector has a harder time recalibrating as quickly now that oil prices are back where they were just 12 years ago in 2004. But, remember, 2004 was not a recession; it was a pretty good year.”

    http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2016/03/wage-war/




  15. #915

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    Nothing good about this news for us. Make China self-sufficient.

    Fracktastic

    Category: News - Articles Published: 2016-Apr-22 Author: Maurice Smith

    Serial inventor seeks to quadruple multi-fractured well production

    The so-called fracking or tight oil revolution that has rocketed the U.S. to energy superpower status and led to an oversupply that precipitated today’s commodity price rout was accomplished by pumping a mere 10 per cent of crude oil from tight rock reservoirs. What if producers could drain 40 per cent of the oil, increasing unconventional production by 300 per cent?

    ...He believes that if it works as modelled, it could make a country like China, which recently surpassed the U.S. as the world’s biggest oil importer, self-sufficient in crude inside of five years. - ..."

    http://www.oilweek.com/index.php/919-fracktastic
    Unless we can sell captured CO2 to them - as if they couldn't make their own.

  16. #916

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    ^I wouldn't worry, sounds like he has failed before per the article.

  17. #917

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    ^I wouldn't worry, sounds like he has failed before per the article.
    Many entrepreneurs suffer repeated failures - even the hugely successful ones.

    So, who knows. Horizontal drilling was a shunned, failed technology for decades too. Government subsidies, corporate research and new technology changed all that in a massive way. This now is incremental change, with a large number of companies already engaged in the sector so there are now significantly better odds of someone trying out the idea.

    Remember, they have upwards of 90% of their oil still sitting there. No more exploratory costs, etc.

  18. #918

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    ^its possible, it will be cool if he is right. I'm a bit skeptical when his main backer is an oil tool maker. I've seen a few "high tech idea" oil start up's fail (after getting lots of suckers to invest). On the other hand, I've seen some start ups make people filthy rich, those ones can most often fund through the bank though (e.g. some engineers buying out a small company in receivership), not outside investors.

  19. #919

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    Grantham on a possible oil price recovery...


    Jeremy Grantham’s Take on Oil, Metals and Agriculture
    The commodities guru argues that oil stocks can recover while farmland is his “first choice” for the long run.
    ...

    I do not believe that the current distress in commodities is caused by the workings of some super cycle, some decadal cosmic force, as some observers have been tempted to say.

    I believe we are seeing three quite different and coincidental forces in three distinct commodity groups.

    1. Grains, dragged down by a...

    2. Metals and coal, buried by an unparalleled, ...

    3. Oil, glutted by the surge of U.S. fracking and the strange gamble by Saudi Arabia.
    ...



    As with stock prices, I am encouraged by the rise in oil prices since my unusual bullishness of last quarter. My belief remains that a multi-year clearing price for oil would be the cost of finding a material amount of new oil. This appears to be about $65 a barrel today, and costs are drifting steadily higher as the cheapest old oil is pumped.

    My guess is that the price of oil will indeed be as high as $100 a barrel again within five years and, perversely, I feel encouraged by the growing host of longer-term pessimists. Much as I would love as an environmentalist to have oil for transportation almost disappear in 10 years, it simply isn’t going to happen.
    However, there will be dramatic technological improvements in non-oil based transportation well before 10 years is out, and after 10 years… well, the oil companies will wish they had taken Ted Levitt’s advice in 1960 in his then groundbreaking “Marketing Myopia” article and defined themselves as energy and chemical companies and not defended their narrower definition of “oil companies.”
    ...




    http://www.barrons.com/articles/jere...ure-1462908054

    Last edited by KC; 19-05-2016 at 08:32 AM.

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    Talk seems to be of the upswing of late, but for some perspective, WTI was trading around the $60 mark at the begining of last year's 'driving season'.
    "The only really positive thing one could say about Vancouver is, it’s not the rest of Canada." Oink (britishexpats.com)

  21. #921

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    The dynamics of supply and demand.



    "We cannot ever produce enough oil, in my opinion, to satisfy global demand five or 10 years out. We have to start using natural gas and more biofuels as a source of transportation fuel," he said in an interview with CNBC's "Power Lunch."

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/19/oil-p...shell-ceo.html

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    A very sobering read...


    As bad as 1998, 1985 or even 1890s? Peter Tertzakian takes the fiscal pulse of Canada’s oil crash

    Economists and analysts have been trying to find historical comparisons to the lengthy oil price downturn that began 21 months ago. As bad as 1998? 1985? Or even the 1890s?...

    Governments feel the fiscal pain of contraction – Last year was the first year since 1998 that COGL reported an income statement loss ($20.1 billion). The loss in 2016 will be even greater, estimated at ($26.4 billion). Negative earnings means that corporate income taxes from oil and gas producers to provincial and federal governments will be net zero. Royalty income to provinces is expected to total $3.0 billion in 2016, the lowest level in decades....


    http://business.financialpost.com/ne...nadas-oilpatch
    "The only really positive thing one could say about Vancouver is, it’s not the rest of Canada." Oink (britishexpats.com)

  23. #923

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    How Far Can Oil Rally? Investors Wager on Surge Above $100
    Javier Blas June 10, 2016

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...urge-above-100

  24. #924
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    $100 oil? Sure, in about 25-35 years from now.
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

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    So if gas was $1.10 when oil was $100 why is gas now $1.00 and oil is $50 ? If oil goes back up to $100 rest assured we will be getting hit $2 a litre

  26. #926

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    $100 oil? Sure, in about 25-35 years from now.
    Did you predict $30/bbl? Few did. Why now decide that one can predict the future? All I feel I can predict is volatility, but even there I could be wrong.

    My view is that as soon as prices start back up, excess capacity would come on stream and drive it back down - but what do I know. Next to nothing. So going back to $100 is as good as anything else. What's interesting is that they feel that a lot of capacity has been removed. So, could it come back or are there factors that could prevent that?

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    Most likely you have heard of peak oil. Depending on who one talks to, oil supply is about to hit near bottom in about 50 years. Unless you believe in oil as a renewable resource as some do. Also, there are arctic emerging supplies so oil might not be dead yet. I'm just going by peak oil. So if we just go by peak oil alone, then its not unreasonable to predict the future of peak oil prices based on how much recovery oil is available. I'm no market annalyst but I can add 1+1 as much as anyone else.
    Last edited by envaneo; 11-06-2016 at 02:14 PM.
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  28. #928

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    Calgary...


    Downtown office vacancy rates top 21%
    Cresa predicts the rate will continue to rise next year
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...cies-1.3712856


    Calgary downtown vacancy rate moving towards 25%
    But there are upsides as charities and non-profits may have better access to market

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...sing-1.3611785
    Last edited by KC; 09-08-2016 at 08:17 PM.

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    And debt delinquencies rising in Alberta & Sask.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...nada-1.3714711

  30. #930

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kitlope View Post
    And debt delinquencies rising in Alberta & Sask.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...nada-1.3714711
    As the tactless and thoughless people say: ' just clearing out the deadwood. '

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    Well, the bottom line is a lot of people, in order to keep up to the Jones's, go into heavy debt. I have zero sympathy for these types.

    Image is an incredible powerful force here in 'Burta. I just came back from a 10 day drive/trip to Vancouver Island and people actually aren't ashamed to drive an older vehicle with a little rust on it.

  32. #932

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kitlope View Post
    Well, the bottom line is a lot of people, in order to keep up to the Jones's, go into heavy debt. I have zero sympathy for these types.

    Image is an incredible powerful force here in 'Burta. I just came back from a 10 day drive/trip to Vancouver Island and people actually aren't ashamed to drive an older vehicle with a little rust on it.
    Same there too. Loads of very high end cars out there. Many here have been there and done that, in terms of driving beaters throughout the 1990s and early 2000s.

    Though, in good times it's easy to justify replacing a perfectly usable asset with a brand new one. We've been doing that all over the place here in Alberta for the last decade. (Cars, houses, buildings, arenas...) Now that the money and borrowing power is running out, watch all the arguments about deferrals surface just when we most need the economic activity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kitlope View Post
    Well, the bottom line is a lot of people, in order to keep up to the Jones's, go into heavy debt. I have zero sympathy for these types.

    Image is an incredible powerful force here in 'Burta. I just came back from a 10 day drive/trip to Vancouver Island and people actually aren't ashamed to drive an older vehicle with a little rust on it.
    I don't think going further into debt is about "Keeping up with the Jones." If anything its about keeping ones head above water. If I didn't have oas "to look forward to" and the bank offered me a 50 % increase on my Visa, I'd take it.
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  34. #934

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    I've been through 3 up-and-downturns since the late 70s and the pattern seems to be highly repeatable: lots of jacked-up spending on show-off items, then the fall, and lots of deals at garage sales for whatever were the trendy consumer gizmos of the time, at 1-cent on the dollar. All 3 had twenty-somethings buying big trucks, followed by an explosion of these vehicles on used-car lots. All 3 had the tackiest "what were you thinking?" consumer products showing up at garage sales and flea markets and now Kijiji with the scent of desperation in their prices. The wheel turns as it has always done...
    I feel in no way entitled to your opinion...

  35. #935

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spudly View Post
    I've been through 3 up-and-downturns since the late 70s and the pattern seems to be highly repeatable: lots of jacked-up spending on show-off items, then the fall, and lots of deals at garage sales for whatever were the trendy consumer gizmos of the time, at 1-cent on the dollar. All 3 had twenty-somethings buying big trucks, followed by an explosion of these vehicles on used-car lots. All 3 had the tackiest "what were you thinking?" consumer products showing up at garage sales and flea markets and now Kijiji with the scent of desperation in their prices. The wheel turns as it has always done...
    Hence why in Jr.high social, their exposed to the Boom and bust cycle of the economy.
    " The strength of a man is in the stride he walks."

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    Stats Can reported today that gasoline sales were at an all-time high in 2015, 4.5% higher than 2014. And look at which provinces had the biggest sales increase.

    Gross sales of gasoline for which road taxes were paid rose 4.5% in 2015 to 44.6 billion litres. This followed a 0.6% decrease in 2014.

    The increase in gross sales occurred during the same period that, according to Natural Resources Canada, the average retail pump price of regular gasoline in selected cities across Canada fell by 15.0%, from $1.28 per litre in 2014 to $1.09 per litre in 2015.

    Gross sales of gasoline were up in all provinces and territories, except Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan. The province with the largest gain in volume was British Columbia (+793.4 million litres), followed by Quebec (+693.0 million litres).
    http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...60812b-eng.htm

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spudly View Post
    I've been through 3 up-and-downturns since the late 70s and the pattern seems to be highly repeatable: lots of jacked-up spending on show-off items, then the fall, and lots of deals at garage sales for whatever were the trendy consumer gizmos of the time, at 1-cent on the dollar. All 3 had twenty-somethings buying big trucks, followed by an explosion of these vehicles on used-car lots. All 3 had the tackiest "what were you thinking?" consumer products showing up at garage sales and flea markets and now Kijiji with the scent of desperation in their prices. The wheel turns as it has always done...
    Except the B&B 1980's bust lasted for ~ a decade. The 2008 bust or the money market crunch was measured in months. This current bust has the stench of the 1980 cycle. We're not out of this (imo) anytime soon. Will this current downturn last the length of the 1980 cycle? Difficult to predict this one. The only thing similar to the 1980 cycle is Canada has a Liberal Government. I don't think we did much better here in Alberta under Paul Martin either. In other words these "boom and bust cycles" are not predictable in terms on how long they will last but rather when global oil prices softens so does our unemployment rate. At the same time there are other factors at work here.

    Some asides while we're going down memory road.

    I remember the ETS transit strike in 1982 walking across the High level bridge from my girlfriends place on 80th to get to Great West Saddlery building downtown on a bitter cold February morning.

    I remember when social services in 1989 (was working during most of the '80's) provided food vouchers to be redeemed at Safeway.
    Last edited by envaneo; 12-08-2016 at 11:44 AM.
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  38. #938

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Spudly View Post
    I've been through 3 up-and-downturns since the late 70s and the pattern seems to be highly repeatable: lots of jacked-up spending on show-off items, then the fall, and lots of deals at garage sales for whatever were the trendy consumer gizmos of the time, at 1-cent on the dollar. All 3 had twenty-somethings buying big trucks, followed by an explosion of these vehicles on used-car lots. All 3 had the tackiest "what were you thinking?" consumer products showing up at garage sales and flea markets and now Kijiji with the scent of desperation in their prices. The wheel turns as it has always done...
    Except the B&B 1980's bust lasted for ~ a decade. The 2008 bust or the money market crunch was measured in months. This current bust has the stench of the 1980 cycle. We're not out of this (imo) anytime soon. Will this current downturn last the length of the 1980 cycle? Difficult to predict this one. The only thing similar to the 1980 cycle is Canada has a Liberal Government. I don't think we did much better here in Alberta under Paul Martin either. In other words these "boom and bust cycles" are not predictable in terms on how long they will last but rather when global oil prices softens so does our unemployment rate. At the same time there are other factors at work here.

    Some asides while we're going down memory road.

    I remember the ETS transit strike in 1982 walking across the High level bridge from my girlfriends place on 80th to get to Great West Saddlery building downtown on a bitter cold February morning.

    I remember when social services in 1989 (was working during most of the '80's) provided food vouchers to be redeemed at Safeway.
    Governments can do very little - they shuffle money about. Much of our service economy also just shuffles money about. It's oil, gas, timber, agriculture and such that export products that bring in the wealth (net of the cost of imports) that we then pass about amongst ourselves. (That's where moahunter has clear and concise viewpoints about Alberta's competitiveness. You can shuffle money about amongst family all you want and it will keep people busy, but someone needs to have a job and be able to get that job that "brings in" the money.)

    A huge chunk of our economy (actually exporting a product and so generating new wealth) is driven by oil and gas. That's why it's incredible that so little effort is ever expended on preparing for the inevitable downturns.
    Last edited by KC; 12-08-2016 at 12:19 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by East McCauley View Post
    Stats Can reported today that gasoline sales were at an all-time high in 2015, 4.5% higher than 2014. And look at which provinces had the biggest sales increase.

    Gross sales of gasoline for which road taxes were paid rose 4.5% in 2015 to 44.6 billion litres. This followed a 0.6% decrease in 2014.

    The increase in gross sales occurred during the same period that, according to Natural Resources Canada, the average retail pump price of regular gasoline in selected cities across Canada fell by 15.0%, from $1.28 per litre in 2014 to $1.09 per litre in 2015.

    Gross sales of gasoline were up in all provinces and territories, except Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan. The province with the largest gain in volume was British Columbia (+793.4 million litres), followed by Quebec (+693.0 million litres).
    http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...60812b-eng.htm
    British Columbia and Quebec, the two most opposed to new pipelines

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    In complete agreement
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Drumbones View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by East McCauley View Post
    Stats Can reported today that gasoline sales were at an all-time high in 2015, 4.5% higher than 2014. And look at which provinces had the biggest sales increase.

    Gross sales of gasoline for which road taxes were paid rose 4.5% in 2015 to 44.6 billion litres. This followed a 0.6% decrease in 2014.

    The increase in gross sales occurred during the same period that, according to Natural Resources Canada, the average retail pump price of regular gasoline in selected cities across Canada fell by 15.0%, from $1.28 per litre in 2014 to $1.09 per litre in 2015.

    Gross sales of gasoline were up in all provinces and territories, except Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan. The province with the largest gain in volume was British Columbia (+793.4 million litres), followed by Quebec (+693.0 million litres).
    http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...60812b-eng.htm
    British Columbia and Quebec, the two most opposed to new pipelines
    BC and Quebec special interest groups (imo) are being influenced by the US dirty Oil campaign. New Brunswick wants Energy East pipeline to go through but as long as these special interest groups are being funded by (imo) foreign interests, Energy East has about as much chance of going through then the Oilers winning another Stanley Cup.
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    TransCanada needs to hire the Connor McDavid of pipeline marketing for this job.

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    ^ You got that right. One *good thing* about the dirty oil campaign is they can hire local rent-a-mob protestors, like at Trump rallies and the Burnaby Mountain Kinder Morgan project. Gives local unemployed, and FN groups something to do.
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    Yes. It's a bloody farce is what it is. The part that adds salt to the wound is that Quebec and BC have the ports and import almost half of the oil used in this country from places like Venezuela, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and other places and then shut us out. It's hard to understand that reasoning, especially when they would benefit from the royalties, taxes, jobs and more as much as anybody.
    Last edited by Drumbones; 12-08-2016 at 02:29 PM.

  45. #945

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    ^Its interesting how nobody minds oil tankers coming into our ports, but supposedly oil tankers leaving them would be terrible, and too dangerous.

  46. #946

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    Well maybe because, coming in, they're empty?
    I feel in no way entitled to your opinion...

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    Oh it's that dirty oil don't you know, that imported stuff is clean like you can take a bath in it and come out smelling like a Rose. Lol. Idiots

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spudly View Post
    Well maybe because, coming in, they're empty?
    Nope, they are coming in full and leaving empty

  49. #949

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    ^Because we import oil?
    I feel in no way entitled to your opinion...

  50. #950

    Default As oilsands punished, tanker loads of cheap Saudi oil sail into Canadian ports daily

    Quote Originally Posted by Spudly View Post
    ^Because we import oil?
    Yes, about 650,000 barrels a day, most of it arriving by oil tanker.That's a huge part of the whole idea behind energy east, to replace imports.

    As federal and provincial politicians pat themselves on the back for their climate change ‘leadership,’ and pipeline opponents gloat about stalling construction of new Canadian pipelines, tanker-loads of foreign oil are delivered regularly to Eastern Canadian refineries, including increasing volumes from Saudi Arabia.

    That’s right. Saudia Arabia, the oil-rich kingdom that is waging a brutal price war to shore up its market share and devastating Canada’s oil and gas sector in the process, dumped an average of 84,017 barrels a day of its cheap oil in New Brunswick’s Irving Oil Ltd. refinery in 2015, according to data compiled by the National Energy Board (NEB). That’s up from 63,046 b/d on average in 2012.

    Overall, refiners in Quebec, Ontario, Newfoundland and New Brunswick imported about 650,000 barrels a day from foreign producers in 2015. In addition to Saudi Arabia, the oil came from the United States, Algeria, Angola, Nigeria, because there is insufficient pipeline capacity to import it from Western Canada, which produces far more oil than it needs.
    http://business.financialpost.com/ne..._lsa=4075-4fa9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spudly View Post
    Well maybe because, coming in, they're empty?
    Spudly, you from PEI ?

  52. #952

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Spudly View Post
    ^Because we import oil?
    Yes, about 650,000 barrels a day, most of it arriving by oil tanker.That's a huge part of the whole idea behind energy east, to replace imports.

    As federal and provincial politicians pat themselves on the back for their climate change ‘leadership,’ and pipeline opponents gloat about stalling construction of new Canadian pipelines, tanker-loads of foreign oil are delivered regularly to Eastern Canadian refineries, including increasing volumes from Saudi Arabia.

    That’s right. Saudia Arabia, the oil-rich kingdom that is waging a brutal price war to shore up its market share and devastating Canada’s oil and gas sector in the process, dumped an average of 84,017 barrels a day of its cheap oil in New Brunswick’s Irving Oil Ltd. refinery in 2015, according to data compiled by the National Energy Board (NEB). That’s up from 63,046 b/d on average in 2012.

    Overall, refiners in Quebec, Ontario, Newfoundland and New Brunswick imported about 650,000 barrels a day from foreign producers in 2015. In addition to Saudi Arabia, the oil came from the United States, Algeria, Angola, Nigeria, because there is insufficient pipeline capacity to import it from Western Canada, which produces far more oil than it needs.
    http://business.financialpost.com/ne..._lsa=4075-4fa9
    Meanwhile in Nfld they pay $1.25 for gas and generally refined gas in the east remains very lucrative. The oil companies and refineries love the status quo. They get cheap oil by tanker, knock off workers in Alberta who will never see the high salaries again, they effectively shut in oil they control, while Saudi oil is depleted but Irving and the US owned oil co's profit from the situation regardless.

    The trade barriers between provinces is just a huge incentive for big companies to profit from cowering Canadians who won't stand up and demand fair pricing and consumer protection.
    Last edited by Edmonton PRT; 12-08-2016 at 03:54 PM.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

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    Since I'm from the Vancouver area (transplanted here since 1979 many people are saying, along North Vancouver Pointe Grey etc think the tankers in English Bay are a eye soar. Its my opinion that Quebec mayors (just follow the money) are bought off by the dirty oil campaign, FN and aboriginal groups as well.
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  54. #954

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    Quote Originally Posted by Drumbones View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Spudly View Post
    Well maybe because, coming in, they're empty?
    Spudly, you from PEI ?
    No, despite my handle. Neither am I from Idaho.
    I feel in no way entitled to your opinion...

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    Ireland?

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    Last edited by Cardinal Fang; 15-08-2016 at 03:43 PM.
    Summer 2017!

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    It's just a shame. This great country being hampered by the shenanigans of a handful of 'mini countries', i.e. provinces. Who's bigger here? Canada as a whole, or these bloody tinpots? Time for Ottawa to put the hammer down on these guys.
    Nisi Dominus Frustra

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    Quote Originally Posted by howie View Post
    It's just a shame. This great country being hampered by the shenanigans of a handful of 'mini countries', i.e. provinces. Who's bigger here? Canada as a whole, or these bloody tinpots? Time for Ottawa to put the hammer down on these guys.
    Not sure what your getting at here. Would you mind elaborating a bit please?
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  59. #959

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    ^^ http://debatepost.com/2016/07/15/oil...igs-firing-up/

    Reminds me of that slogan 'if there's another oil boom please don't pi$$ it all away' (something on those lines).
    "The man who does not read has no advantage over the man who cannot read." –Mark Twain

  60. #960

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by howie View Post
    It's just a shame. This great country being hampered by the shenanigans of a handful of 'mini countries', i.e. provinces. Who's bigger here? Canada as a whole, or these bloody tinpots? Time for Ottawa to put the hammer down on these guys.
    Not sure what your getting at here. Would you mind elaborating a bit please?
    I think what Howie is referring to is that provinces are stopping the oil industry, pipelines in particular, to cross through their provinces. Provinces should not be allowed to do this. Canada is set up with several provinces but in this case all of Canada should be united behind the oil/gas industry as it is a big driver of the Canadian economy. Ottawa (Trudeau) should get his act together and tell the provinces he is not going to put up with their stalling tactics. The pipelines are to be built. We are a nation and one or two provinces should not stand in the way of what's in the best interest of Canada.
    Howie can correct me if I'm wrong.
    Last edited by Gemini; 16-08-2016 at 02:00 PM.
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    ^ Ok thanks. See my previous posts about Quebec mayors and the money trail. Also, this might come as a response to Quebec's have not status change and transfer payments.
    Last edited by envaneo; 16-08-2016 at 02:18 PM.
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    ^^ Exactly my point, Gem. Thank you. It's as though the whole country is being impeded. Oil, being largely the lifeblood of the national economy, and the importance of getting it to the ports, should be paramount and Ottawa really should jump in and override these provincial pests.
    Nisi Dominus Frustra

  63. #963

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    You not refering to the biggest welfare case in this country that bit the hand that feeds it are you now.

  64. #964

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    Saudi Arabia Is Willing To Crash Oil Prices

    By ZeroHedge - Nov 04, 2016, 10:52 AM CDT

    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Ge...tm_campaign=im

  65. #965

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    Peak oil demand expectations...

    This could be, relatively speaking, good news for Alberta. Investors abandon all hope for oil and so stop increasing production. We go into "run off" and earn good money on the last oil sands production. Then hope gas production has more longevity, even though it's almost as bad as oil for causing greenhouse gases...


    http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-indu...ing-1480248012

  66. #966

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    This simply reinforces the need to move Alberta away from oil. It's a dead end. Kenney is willing to throw 4 million people under the bus so he can get be premier. This province needs to move forward, and oil is not it. If the right has a different plan, they better unleash it. The NDP would be smart to start having the tough talk about the province moving past oil.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

  67. #967

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chmilz View Post
    This simply reinforces the need to move Alberta away from oil. It's a dead end. Kenney is willing to throw 4 million people under the bus so he can get be premier. This province needs to move forward, and oil is not it. If the right has a different plan, they better unleash it. The NDP would be smart to start having the tough talk about the province moving past oil.
    Diversify into what?
    I hate to see a lot of taxpayer money lost in trying to pick market winners.

  68. #968

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    The NDP has put up incentives in digital media, tourism, and food manufacturing. All large industries that we barely touch. They won't offset oil each on their own obviously, though they play a part. Food manufacturing is one that I can't believe we aren't already bigger in.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

  69. #969

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chmilz View Post
    The NDP has put up incentives in digital media, tourism, and food manufacturing. All large industries that we barely touch. They won't offset oil each on their own obviously, though they play a part. Food manufacturing is one that I can't believe we aren't already bigger in.
    All good but lacking the blockbuster revenue streams of oil and gas. We now have a larger population built up based on a peak revenue stream that now needs sustenance. This is similar to the 1980s but no diversification really came about. I don't think we will see it this time around either. So, being cynical the second time around, I would say banking what we can from our resource sell off and investing the proceeds globally for income generation may be the best we can hope for.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Chmilz View Post
    The NDP has put up incentives in digital media, tourism, and food manufacturing. All large industries that we barely touch. They won't offset oil each on their own obviously, though they play a part. Food manufacturing is one that I can't believe we aren't already bigger in.
    All good but lacking the blockbuster revenue streams of oil and gas. We now have a larger population built up based on a peak revenue stream that now needs sustenance. This is similar to the 1980s but no diversification really came about. I don't think we will see it this time around either. So, being cynical the second time around, I would say banking what we can from our resource sell off and investing the proceeds globally for income generation may be the best we can hope for.
    That's not accurate. Alberta is significantly more diversified now than in 1980.

    https://www.albertacanada.com/files/...esentation.pdf

    Refer to page 10.

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    A good chunk of our foods industries were scared out by the unions. They went to smaller towns in Manitoba and Saskatchewan etc

  72. #972

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    Quote Originally Posted by AAAAE View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Chmilz View Post
    The NDP has put up incentives in digital media, tourism, and food manufacturing. All large industries that we barely touch. They won't offset oil each on their own obviously, though they play a part. Food manufacturing is one that I can't believe we aren't already bigger in.
    All good but lacking the blockbuster revenue streams of oil and gas. We now have a larger population built up based on a peak revenue stream that now needs sustenance. This is similar to the 1980s but no diversification really came about. I don't think we will see it this time around either. So, being cynical the second time around, I would say banking what we can from our resource sell off and investing the proceeds globally for income generation may be the best we can hope for.
    That's not accurate. Alberta is significantly more diversified now than in 1980.

    https://www.albertacanada.com/files/...esentation.pdf

    Refer to page 10.
    Excellent information. Thanks for posting it.

    In looking at page 9 and 10, I still wonder if we have diversified much. Real estate, construction, finance are very closely tied in with the good times the oil sector brought to Alberta. The lagging nature of those sectors combined with a drop in GDP of the oil sector makes them look relatively stronger - until they themselves slow down. Similar effect for sectors tied to government spending which has been furthered through massive borrowing to create a soft landing and/or bridge the low oil price gap.

    Diversification to offset oil royalty cash flows and oil extraction build out cash flows really needs exportable goods and services and maybe foreign investment cash flows. In those terms, I'm just not aware of great advances in diversification.


    From that link, I think this is the chart to look at (see below).
    I'd like to learn more about what's going on in therms of diversifying our exports.

    In 2015, Alberta exported $92.3 billion worth of goods to 195 countries, a decrease of 24 per cent from 2014.

     Alberta’s drop in exports in 2015 can be attributed mostly to much lower prices for crude oil and natural gas.

     Alberta also exports an increasing amount and variety of manufactured products such as petrochemicals, food products, and metals and machinery.

     After declining sharply during the recent recession, manufacturing exports have recovered strongly since then, and increased by 21% between 2010 and 2015 to $23.9 billion.

     Exports of crops and livestock rose 65% between 2010 and 2015, while processed food exports increased by 35%.
    Last edited by KC; 01-12-2016 at 09:09 AM.

  73. #973

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    I'd like to see this chart below in a slightly different form. Actually, I'd like to see total exports compared as well, to show how much better off, or not, we are as a result of population growth. The question: are we better off with a larger population or are we just dividing a natural non-renewable resource base over an ever larger population base, thus reducing the resource revenue available to each and every existing Albertan?

    It's very much like looking at a small growing company that is diluting shares owned by the founding investors, constantly issuing new shares and bringing in new investors and shrinking the relative pie for those already there. Are those early investors made better off or worse off though the managements efforts to grow the company? Many of those companies, dilute, dilute, dilute and then fail and wipe out the early investors.

    So I'd like to see the per capita inflation adjusted version to see how Albertans have faired over the years though increasing our population.


    http://www.energy.alberta.ca/Org/pdf...enuesGraph.pdf

  74. #974
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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    I'd like to see this chart below in a slightly different form. Actually, I'd like to see total exports compared as well, to show how much better off, or not, we are as a result of population growth. The question: are we better off with a larger population or are we just dividing a natural non-renewable resource base over an ever larger population base, thus reducing the resource revenue available to each and every existing Albertan?

    It's very much like looking at a small growing company that is diluting shares owned by the founding investors, constantly issuing new shares and bringing in new investors and shrinking the relative pie for those already there. Are those early investors made better off or worse off though the managements efforts to grow the company? Many of those companies, dilute, dilute, dilute and then fail and wipe out the early investors.

    So I'd like to see the per capita inflation adjusted version to see how Albertans have faired over the years though increasing our population.


    http://www.energy.alberta.ca/Org/pdf...enuesGraph.pdf
    Your premise is backwards, I believe. The economy exists because people exist. We do not want to start thinking that the economy is this independent thing, that is 'diluted' when more people are here.


    Rather, the people create the economy through their actions, buying and selling, learning and governing and thinking.


    As for diversification, you will have to agree that even diversification into related industries of the O&G sector is still some level of diversification. We have gone beyond this, though in many areas in Alberta and are continuing to do so.

  75. #975

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    Quote Originally Posted by AAAAE View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    I'd like to see this chart below in a slightly different form. Actually, I'd like to see total exports compared as well, to show how much better off, or not, we are as a result of population growth. The question: are we better off with a larger population or are we just dividing a natural non-renewable resource base over an ever larger population base, thus reducing the resource revenue available to each and every existing Albertan?

    It's very much like looking at a small growing company that is diluting shares owned by the founding investors, constantly issuing new shares and bringing in new investors and shrinking the relative pie for those already there. Are those early investors made better off or worse off though the managements efforts to grow the company? Many of those companies, dilute, dilute, dilute and then fail and wipe out the early investors.

    So I'd like to see the per capita inflation adjusted version to see how Albertans have faired over the years though increasing our population.


    http://www.energy.alberta.ca/Org/pdf...enuesGraph.pdf
    Your premise is backwards, I believe. The economy exists because people exist. We do not want to start thinking that the economy is this independent thing, that is 'diluted' when more people are here.


    Rather, the people create the economy through their actions, buying and selling, learning and governing and thinking.


    As for diversification, you will have to agree that even diversification into related industries of the O&G sector is still some level of diversification. We have gone beyond this, though in many areas in Alberta and are continuing to do so.
    Yes, people make the economy, so the economy will persist. However, a family can trade bills and services amongst themselves and that creates economic activity by keeping everyone busy and it creates positive measurable transactions that could be measured and treated like positive GDP. Add more families and everyone gets busy. However, as soon as they start buying god and services from outside that small circle, leakage of wealth occurs. Selling outsde the cirlce brings weatlh back in. If the values don't net out over time, then you get gains or losses to the economy.

    The Great Depression's make-work projects, New Deal, etc. all provide great examples of makret intervention that can generate economic activity that can be used to increase spending and economic growth even though it was government driven. Here we brought in more people for private sector's resource development needs and now may have to make a shift to government support to encourage economic activity however, that is again privatizing the gains and socializing the losses - in the hope that it is temporary, until other economic actiivty generaties the wealth that resource developemt brought us in the past.

    However, I'd say that we do want to start thinking that, not the economy, but the abiliyt to generate increasing wealth and increases to the population's broad standard of living requires a deepr understandign of where and how Alberta is achieving improvements in overall or median wealth and standard of living. Can it be dilluted through the addition of more people? The question is when do more people grow the net benefits of the economy long term and when do more people come at a greater long tem cost.

    I'd say that the problem in Alberta is that we rely on a stream of incoming resource based revenues and capital expenditures to create much of our economic activity and those revenues get disbursed throughout the population. Drop those revenues by $50-60 billion a year and that may have an impact here. Borrowing billions helps offset that reality but only partially. The borrowings of course grease the economic wheels and increase the velocity of money up front, while eventually draining the principle and interest out later - hopefully at a devalued level and hopefully after fueling a net profit on that leverage.
    Last edited by KC; 06-03-2017 at 02:39 PM.

  76. #976

    Default

    Nothing surprising here - as we've discussed on this forum, but worth reading:


    OPEC Deal Cancelled Out By Rising Shale Output

    By Nick Cunningham - Feb 28, 2017
    U.S. oil production continues to rise, threatening to offset much of the output reductions from OPEC, and yet again pushing out the time horizon for the oil market balancing. There is a growing consensus that oil prices will remain below $60 per barrel in 2017 even if OPEC decides to extend its production cuts by another six months.

    Estimates for the rebound in U.S. shale vary, but they differ only on magnitude and not on trajectory. Nearly all major oil analysts and investment banks see a strong resurgence in shale output.

    Production gains are already more or less baked in for the next few months. Rig counts have surged roughly 90 percent since last May, with sharp gains since OPEC announced its deal in late November. However, gains in production often lag behind increases in the rig count by a few months, meaning that gains U.S. shale production stemming from those additional rigs have yet to show up in the data.


    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil...le-Output.html
    Have The Majors Given Up On Canada’s Oil Sands?

    By Nick Cunningham - Feb 24, 2017

    Canada’s oil sands could struggle to rebound, with potentially billions of barrels of oil being kept underground permanently.

    Canada’s oil sands are incredibly expensive, some of the costliest sources of oil in the world. Unlike conventional oil drilling, or even drilling in shale, producing from oil sands is more like open-pit mining in many cases. The oil, often found as a sticky, viscous semi-solid known as bitumen, requires extra steps to extract and process before it can be shipped. That stands in stark contrast to conventional oil, which merely requires drilling into an oil field and pumping out the crude.

    As a result, the breakeven cost for Canada’s oil sands is dramatically higher than most other places in the world. Obviously, costs vary from company to company and project to project, but a 2016 estimate from IHS put the average breakeven price at a new greenfield oil sands mine at between $85 and $95 per barrel. A steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) project could cost between $55 and $65 per barrel just to break even. With those figures, it is easy to see why very few, if any, greenfield projects could move forward in the near- to medium-term, particularly when companies could look elsewhere for oil.

    To make matters worse, Canadian oil typically trades at a discount to WTI, due to its lower quality and because it needs to be transported longer distances. A dearth of pipeline capacity ...


    Finally, developing oil sands requires billions of dollars and the payback period is stretched out over decades. The great thing about that for producers is that it provides consistent output for years. But that is no longer ...


    But the de-booking is even more interesting because of what it says about Canada’s oil sands. ...



    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Ge...Oil-Sands.html

  77. #977

    Default

    ‘We’ve got the fight in us’: Oilsands companies battle for dollars as investors favour short-term plays

    JESSE SNYDER, FINANCIAL POST 03.08.2017
    excderpt:

    Lance said that while oilsands provide long-term stable oil supply, such projects tend to be higher cost and therefore riskier.

    “So how many of these long or medium cycle projects can you stack up in your portfolio? You have to be really careful.”

    Gains in oilsands productivity come as depressed prices, political fragility and uncertainty over long-term oil demand have caused investors to seek refuge in U.S. shale plays.

    Major international players like Exxon Mobil Corp. and ConocoPhillips Co. have allocated larger portions of their capital budgets toward shorter-cycle shale assets, particularly southern U.S. basins like the Permian and Eagle Ford. Smaller companies have pursued a string of equity deals in recent months to fund aggressive new drilling plans.

    While capital has been refocused on shorter-cycle developments, some commentators said the trend extends beyond energy investment. In particular, years of political fragility has caused a wider case of so-called “short-termism” in a number of industries as investor confidence fades.

    “People have been reluctant, they’ve been cautious,” said Thomas Fanning, the president and CEO of Southern Company, one of the largest utility companies in the U.S.

    http://www.calgaryherald.com/fight+o...653/story.html

  78. #978

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    Alberta Trying More Booze to Ease the Pain of Oil Price Slump
    by Robert Tuttle
    March 22, 2017,

    excerpt:

    “Alberta barley has a beautifully sweet flavor,” said Farran, who is also president of the Alberta Craft Distillers Association. “When you taste a good malt whisky, that sweetness comes from the barley. Alberta is considered to be one of the best, if not the best, barley producers in the world.”

    Details about the distiller subsidies are still being worked out, according to Mike Berezowsky, a spokesman for the finance ministry of Joe Ceci, who announced the program last week. The goal is to encourage existing distillers to expand and to attract new ones. A new distiller might spend more than C$1.5 million ($1.1 million) for equipment, according to Farran.

    The new incentives may mimic those already in place for local craft beer that the government says are creating jobs and driving new investment. Last August, the government began the Alberta Small Brewers Development Program, which offers grants of as much as C$1.15 per liter sold to small manufacturers. That program is included as part of C$135 million earmarked in the 2017-18 fiscal budget to “support ongoing efforts to expand existing and open new markets for Alberta’s agriculture products,” according to budget documents.


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...gy-price-slump

  79. #979

    Default

    OPEC Be Warned: Russia Prepares for Oil at $40 - Bloomberg
    Excerpt:
    Perhaps the Bank of Russia knows something the world doesn’t.

    As the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies prepare to meet for a review of their production cuts this weekend, the central bank of the world’s biggest energy exporter is hunkering down for years of oil near $40 a barrel.

    ...
    “Once (actually more than once) bitten, twice shy,” said Elina Ribakova, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. “The central bank and the Finance Ministry are sticking to the conservative $40 oil scenario because they want to be ready for and protect themselves against the worst-case scenario.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-for-oil-at-40
    Last edited by KC; 25-03-2017 at 09:30 PM.

  80. #980
    I'd rather C2E than work!
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    Default

    Long term $40 oil could spell economic disaster.
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  81. #981

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    Tough times ahead, again?

    Oil surplus or scarcity? Shale makes it even harder to predict | Reuters



    Yet Goldman Sachs, the only bank to make more than $1 billion a year from commodities trading, believes a looming recovery in U.S. output on the back of higher oil prices combined with an avalanche of new conventional projects will create a substantial surplus by 2019.

    Prior to the shale revolution, conventional oil was the only game in town. Estimating future supply essentially involved calculating the project pipeline and factoring in the "unknown knowns" such as political risk in oil-producing nations.

    The ability of the shale sector to adapt quickly and nimbly to a lower-price environment means production cycles have shortened as fields can be switched on and off in a matter of weeks.


    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oi...-idUSKBN17C0WO

  82. #982

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    Chevron said to be considering sale of stake in Shell oilsands mining project
    April 13, 2017, CTV News, The Canadian Press
    excerpt:

    CALGARY -- California-based Chevron Corp. is looking at selling its 20 per cent stake in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project in northern Alberta, according to a media report.
    The company has discussed with investment banks the idea of selling its stake in the oilsands mine and upgrading project, Reuters is reporting, citing anonymous sources.
    http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/chevr...ject-1.3367890

  83. #983

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    Down forever, no last hoorah: Why the market for fossil fuels is all burnt out
    Excerpt:

    "For oil companies who heed Helm’s advice, the route ahead is a ruthless harvest-and-exit strategy. This would mean an aggressive slashing of capital expenditure, pumping of remaining oil reserves while keeping costs to the floor and paying out very high dividends."
    ...
    “Many low-cost producers have rationed supply with a view that if they do not produce a barrel today they can produce a barrel tomorrow,” Dale said earlier this year. “I think it is increasingly likely that there will be technically recoverable oil reserves which will never be extracted.”

    http://www.calgaryherald.com/down+fo...302/story.html
    Last edited by KC; 20-04-2017 at 07:00 AM.

  84. #984

    Default

    U.S. plan to sell oil reserve shows declining import needs | Reuters
    Excerpt
    "President Donald Trump's proposal to sell half of the U.S. strategic oil reserve highlights a decline in the biggest oil user's reliance on imports - and a weaning off OPEC crude - as its domestic production soars.

    The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) SPR-STK-T-EIA, the world's largest, holds about 688 million barrels of crude in heavily guarded underground caverns in Louisiana and Texas."

    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN18J0T2




    U.S. Shale Roars Back at OPEC - Bloomberg

    Excerpt:

    "There are areas in the enormous Permian and Eagle Ford shale fields in Texas where producers can break even at prices as low as $34 a barrel, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

    And analysts now say U.S. shale production will grow even faster than expected. Macquarie Group now thinks production will increase 1.4 million barrels a day through December, up from a previous growth estimate of 0.9 million barrels a day. JPMorgan Chase & Co. doubled its forecast to an increase of 800,000 barrels a day for the same period."


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-back-at-opec
    Last edited by KC; 23-05-2017 at 10:13 AM.

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