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Thread: YEG Passenger Numbers for 2008 (aka aggravate grish sticky)

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    Default YEG Passenger Numbers for 2008 (aka aggravate grish sticky)

    I know this topic started appearing in other threads, but I thought we should dedicate a thread to it, and watch the numbers as the year progresses. I hope those who posted in the other thread will post their estimates here again.

    2007 saw about 6.1 million passengers through YEG, and my guess is for about a 12% increase overall, so: 6,800,000.
    Almost always open to debate...

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    7.15 M based on those future routes that have yet to be announced.

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    although i think it will be closer to 6.8 i do love the look of


    6,666,666

    my guess
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    Though I'd like to see almost 7M pax by the end of the year, I just don't think it'll happen. For the numbers to increase again by 900,000+ pax, there would need to be a BIG increase in frequencies and some additional routes. Thus far, this is definitely not the case. I think I'm being optimistic (and a realist) when I say we'll be lucky to make it to 6.65M. I'll happily retract that statement if we easily eclipse that.

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    i think I have guessed 7 million before. With the new Mexicana thing I guess 7,000,001

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    10% growth would put us at 6.7+ million - I think that's ambitious enough given the scarcity of gate positions at the favoured times.

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    Quote Originally Posted by grish
    i think I have guessed 7 million before. With the new Mexicana thing I guess 7,000,001
    I too am going to exploit that old "Price Is Right" bid strategy and say 7,000,002.
    “You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012

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    I'll go for 6,450,000....there are not that many new flights and it would be nice to see controlled growth until the hammer-head comes on line or I'll never get to park near the terminal again!
    Edmonton, Capital of Alberta

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sonic Death Monkey
    Quote Originally Posted by grish
    i think I have guessed 7 million before. With the new Mexicana thing I guess 7,000,001
    I too am going to exploit that old "Price Is Right" bid strategy and say 7,000,002.
    hmm i want to challenge your guess. MOD? MOD?







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    7,000,003

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    6,500,000.
    Fly Edmonton first. Support EIA

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    6 521 498.73

    Or $ 1.00.

    Depends on how I feel.
    President and CEO - Airshow.

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    looking back to 07, i think the major 1 000 000 jump was caused by new west jet routes, YEG-LHR on AC, and air transats frankfurt and london gatwick's increased route #'s... [just an opinion]

    i think that the south american market will start to open since Mexicana starts routes in June ...

    i think if more routes are introduced, there will be another jump.

    i'd say 7.2 million this year.

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    As I said in a previous post I will go with Reg Milley and predict an 8% growth which calculates to 6,550,326.6. More or less.

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    it would be nice to have no single month with less than 500,000 and at least 3 months with 600,000+. starting with January 08.

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    Quote Originally Posted by grish
    it would be nice to have no single month with less than 500,000 and at least 3 months with 600,000+. starting with January 08.
    So what is your guess for January?

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    518,129 in Jan

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    At the risk of over-utilizing the Price is Right tactic, I'll say 518,130 pax flew in January. Sorry, grish, your guess was just too damn good. Tell ya what, I'll go first for February's numbers, k?

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    what's this? aggravate grish sticky?

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    by your command.
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    oh no you didn't.

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    518,131

    whatchoo talkin' 'bout Willis?
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    My guess 6,750,000 for 08.

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    Quote Originally Posted by grish
    what's this? aggravate grish sticky?
    Notoriety.

    My guess for January is 505,440

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    I suppose that since this is a leap year, we can expect a 'built-in' 3 or 4% increase in pax numbers for the month. Assuming February would've tallied a 7-8% increase, the extra day will push that up to somewhere between 10 and 12% for the month, no? That said, my guess for February stands at 509,000. Would be nice if we stayed above the "half-million" mark every month of the year.

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    yesterday at the airport, both the value park and the parkade was full - they opened up the overflow lot.

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    I posted this in the other thread, but just for simplicity's sake come next year:

    Quote Originally Posted by me (JayBee)
    What's with all these non-round numbers?

    I don't know anymore. In '06 we got growth over 15% and I surmised we'd never see that kind of number again. Then we get 16% for '07.

    Oil is now at $100 a barrel, and I don't see anyone backing off of their projects (other than the Province that is...) and frankly I can't remember what clouds on the horizon even look like anymore. As far as bottlenecks go, we did see in July, August and December distinctly lower growth than in the other months, which would seem to say that even though Dec was down in percentage growth, there is no reason to believe that that's not just a function of empty seats being unavailable, and the numbers are just due to roar back over 15% this month. And make no mistake, the airlines will add seats as long as they can maintain or better their average system load factors...

    Alright, every number I can guess I can second guess, and after being monumentally wrongo last year, what the hey:

    6,900,000

    and here's hoping it's grish's year.
    ^ at the time grish's guess was the highest. Good luck now!

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    Well, here was my post from the other thread, and I'm sticking with it....

    Quote Originally Posted by Chump
    hah - well, seeing as I broke my crystal ball I'll just have to guess...or was that what happened last year....

    I guess things will slow down, but only because everyone says so...now given the 8% prediction by Reg Milley, and considering the fact that airport growth has usually been underestimated, I'll go with 12.1% growth.

    6,065,117 x 12.1% = 6798996

    (edited to add 0.1% just for kicks)

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    6 500 407

    Added the 407 to make my number unique.
    Xelebes

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    will we break 500,000 in Feb? when are the numbers released?

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    i just went to edmontonairports stats page. they report that january numbers (502,166) are 6.5% less than budgeted (537,256). I think I already know the answer to my question, but all those in the "know": are budgeted numbers a reasonable "safe" projection not to have to explain running a deficit? or is the airport underperforming with respect to the expectations?

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    I dunno. It's hard to say 500k is underperforming, but actually if you look at the historically busiest months (July, August, December) they're also the hardest ones to get high growth numbers, and January is traditionally a shoulder month, so it could be some of the same effect. i.e., merely a reflection of running out of seats. January does look lower than it would be if we were on track for another year of 15% growth though.

    As for February, I agree there's next to no chance of breaking 500k, but I'll be interested in seeing the growth rate for sure. It should be a reasonable crystal ball for the rest of the year.

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    I came pretty close to Feb's numbers. I'd said in the neighborhood of 509K for the month and we got 508K and change. In order to repay my debt to Grish, my guess for March is an underwhelming 539K. Any takers?

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    No fair.

    508/29 = 14 and change
    14 and change *31 = 536 and change.

    Put another way, that's getting towards a Rexall Place per day going through YEG.

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    in case people have missed it:

    http://corporate.edmontonairports.co...ages/3/315.pdf

    508,349 people or 10.2% increase over last year.
    I am pleasantly surprised that Feb numbers are that much higher than Jan with 2 days fewer. I guess reading break/ family day probably has something to do with that.

    Next month? 539,002 people.

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    ( ^ that's as good an explanation as I could come up with.)

    Wow, I admit I goofed that up. But looking back from 1997 onwards, February has beaten January also in 2000 and 2004. On memory as I was going before, I thought for some reason it was always around 5% lower. Serves me right for going on memory...


    Fantastic news though. YEG is continuing to amaze.
    Last edited by JayBee; 13-03-2008 at 06:19 AM.

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    So what will March be like with the Easter weekend and "spring break" for most schools? and of course what impact will that have on April.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kona View Post
    So what will March be like with the Easter weekend and "spring break" for most schools? and of course what impact will that have on April.
    yup and also the large increase in sun destinations which are popular this time of the year.
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    We should be looking for some March passenger numbers any day now, right? Thoughts or guesses?
    Almost always open to debate...

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    numbers for May? not going to bother guessing, but do want to know where on the new website passenger numbers are posted.

    EDIT: Found it. Last year was approx 503,000 so my guess is 538,217
    Last edited by grish; 07-06-2008 at 05:05 PM.

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    Exclamation Passenger Statistics for May 2008 @ EIA

    Passenger Statistics for May 2008 Edmonton International Airport

    Highlights

    Overall 533,766 passengers (May) and 2,609,709 (YTD)
    Domestic 440,681 passengers (May) and 2,010,155 (YTD)
    Transborder 76,700 passengers (May) and 389,297 (YTD)
    International 16,385 passengers (May) and 210,257

    Growth%

    Overall 5.9% (May) and 7.4% (YTD)
    Domestic 4.4% (May) and 4.5% (YTD)
    Transborder 19.6% (May) and 13.4% (YTD)
    International -6.7% (May) and 29.1% (YTD)

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    I am amazed at the increase in transborder. Good to have Canadians travelling down to use the $. A little disappointed in the International though. But with Mexicana in June we should see a nice increase from this point on.

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    other than international those are very very good numbers all around....still on pace for 6.5-6.7million.....or my guess of 6,666,666
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    International probably reflects the loss of Martainair et al more thany anything else. AC to LHG is probably as strong as last year. With Mexicana, June will right itself. Also have to love the transborder.

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    who will be the first to post a "guess september numbers at YEG" question?

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    I am guessing 635,000 for Sept.

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    635,001
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    You guys are out to lunch.
    How about 510,000?

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    634,999

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    Quote Originally Posted by Glenco View Post
    You guys are out to lunch.
    How about 510,000?
    I was thinking the same. You fellas are a little on the optimistic side (to say the least). Where normally, my (our) common practice was to aggravate grish by guessing one less (or more) pax than his guess, I'll have to amend that practice substantially. For the month of September, the 'adjustment' will have to be a subtraction of 111 111 pax from his guess.

    634 999 - 111 111 = 523 888 pax for September which eqautes to a growth factor of just under 8%. I think that may prove to be optimistic this year; something about high fuel prices, blah blah blah.
    Slow to 160, contact tower. Slow to 160, contact tower. Slow to...ZZZZZZZZZZ.....

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    My guess is 515,000.
    "Talk minus action equals zero." - Joe Keithley, D. O. A.

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    533,200 would be my guess...

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    And going on the aggravation lines roughly 5% growth from last year gives you 511,111 for Sept.

    At least my 2 flights will count but alas not the 4 at the layover in SLC

  54. #54
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    the reason for my vote is that I have been really propping up the YEG numbers in Sept. An insider's vote!

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    I flew to YEG back in Sep. I was told by the AC concicrege (not the maple leaf staff) that the AC flights were full...but not the '07 kind!! At least for the first part of the month. However, she was predicting the latter part of the month to be SOLID based on bookings all over including the LHR flight.

    I am thinking...a 6% increases.

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    Is there any way to find out seats available vs. seats sold numbers?

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    the reported numbers are seats sold.

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    Yes, I am aware of that, but comparing these numbers to seats available would be much more meaningful in determining how YEG is performing.

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    Passenger Statistics for September 2008

    Highlights

    ¨ Overall 510,339 passengers (September) and 4,864,371 (YTD)

    ¨ Domestic 426,205 passengers (September) and 3,898,969 (YTD)

    ¨ Transborder 68,348 (September) and 678,834 (YTD)

    ¨ International 15,786 (September) and 286,568 (YTD)

    ¨ Rolling 12 Month 6,359,460


    Growth%

    ¨ Overall 4.9% (September) and 6.4% (YTD)

    ¨ Domestic 4.3% (September) and 4.3% (YTD)

    ¨ Transborder 9.5% (September) and 14.2% (YTD)

    ¨ International 1.9% (September) and 21.0% (YTD)

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    Surprisingly good figures, considering everything that's going on.
    Almost always open to debate...

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    ^yup, very strong considering everything.
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    Glenco wins for September with an eduguess of 510K!
    My antidepressent drug of choice is running. Cheaper with less side effects!

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    Quote Originally Posted by booster View Post
    Glenco wins for September with an eduguess of 510K!
    I hope this does not go to my head.

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    didn't yyc report a loss? a sign of closing the gap? baby steps

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    I believe that YYC was down slightly for August over the previous month - can't remember the % though.
    Almost always open to debate...

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    So given the September numbers can we still achieve 6.8 million for the year? I know Christmas is a busy time but will it be enough?

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    ^i think that might be a little high, but my guess from the beginning of the year is getting better each day.

    6,666,666
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    I'm thinking we'll reach about 6.5 - 6.6 million.
    Almost always open to debate...

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    I do have to say, 7 million sounds nice in 2009...
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    Time to guess November. Too lazy to look at the past numbers, so will go with 555,007

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    530,87...2

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    Numbers are gonna come out soon so I'd better get my bet(s) in..... <drumroll> October figures will come in around 527K. <persistent drumroll> Pre-emptive November figures, 530 thousand!!!
    Slow to 160, contact tower. Slow to 160, contact tower. Slow to...ZZZZZZZZZZ.....

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    We should have those numbers today or this week, I'm sure. I'm guessing 525,000,
    Almost always open to debate...

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    I will go a little lower, 515,000 as October is a pretty slow month between seasons.
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    Edmonton International Airport

    Passenger Statistics for October 2008

    Highlights

    ¨ Overall 530,730 passengers (October) and 5,395,101 (YTD)

    ¨ Domestic 435,283 passengers (October) and 4,334,252 (YTD)

    ¨ Transborder 81,650 (October) and 760,484 (YTD)

    ¨ International 13,797 (October) and 300,365 (YTD)

    ¨ Rolling 12 Month 6,389,369


    Growth%

    ¨ Overall 6.0% (October) and 6.4% (YTD)

    ¨ Domestic 3.9% (October) and 4.2% (YTD)

    ¨ Transborder 16.4% (October) and 14.4% (YTD)

    ¨ International 19.4% (October) and 20.9% (YTD)

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    Not a bad month at all - I am doing my best to help out November by going away for the weekend..... December shold start to benefit from the increased number of sun destinations.
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    Smile

    Two years ago 5.2 mil was the yearly total. Here we are at 5.4 and two months to go.
    By the way I am getting really good eh. If you want to consult with me at the beer and bull get together you will have to arrange it through my secretary.

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    It's great to see increases, especially when air travel is down.
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  79. #79

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    That is quite the surprise...YEG keeps bucking the trend!!!

  80. #80
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    It is Nov 18 and Calgary still does not have their numbers published for October. Too many to count or yet another drop? Oct has been their stellar month in the last few years with 10% increase the last two.

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    My guess is 503,428 for november of '08.

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    Default November numbers

    Guesses anyone? As the reigning champion (please hold your applause) I will go first.
    516,535.82

  83. #83
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    i've already guessed in the sticky on airport numbers. so, at most, you are second "to go".

  84. #84

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    Uh, point-eight-two?
    Let's make Edmonton better.

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    a little girl with a stroller for her doll. the .82 is the stroller with the doll

  86. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
    Uh, point-eight-two?
    In the event of a tie breaker

  87. #87

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    Uh, okay.

    I'm with merging this thread into the sticky.

    My guess: 530734 - four higher than October because of my household.
    Last edited by JayBee; 05-12-2008 at 05:43 PM.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

  88. #88

  89. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
    Uh, okay.

    I'm with merging this thread into the sticky.

    My guess: 530734 - four higher than October because of my household.
    Merged as suggested.
    Almost always open to debate...

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    Edmonton International Airport

    Passenger Statistics for November 2008

    Highlights

    ¨ Overall 498,542 passengers (November) and 5,894,063 (YTD)

    ¨ Domestic 374,199 passengers (November) and 4,708,871 (YTD)

    ¨ Transborder 89,340 passengers (November) and 849,824 (YTD)

    ¨ International 35,003 passengers (November) and 335,368 (YTD)


    Growth%

    ¨ Overall 2.8% (November) and 6.1% (YTD)

    ¨ Domestic -3.1% (November) and 3.6% (YTD)

    ¨ Transborder 24.3% (November) and 15.4% (YTD)

    ¨ International 30.8% (November) and 21.8% (YTD)

  91. #91

    Default Passenger Statistics for November 2008

    Passenger Statistics for November 2008

    Highlights
    * Overall 498,542 passengers (November) and 5,894,063 (YTD)
    * Domestic 374,199 passengers (November) and 4,708,871 (YTD)
    * Transborder 89,340 passengers (November) and 849,824 (YTD)
    * International 35,003 passengers (November) and 335,368 (YTD)

    Growth%
    * Overall 2.8% (November) and 6.1% (YTD)
    * Domestic -3.1% (November) and 3.6% (YTD)
    * Transborder 24.3% (November) and 15.4% (YTD)
    * International 30.8% (November) and 21.8% (YTD)

  92. #92
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    i was hoping not to see sub 500,000 a month anymore .

    ps ouch, Debra, missed it by 1 minute! Must be all that nice formatting.

  93. #93
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    Still impressive numbers! I can't believe how well the transborder and international stats are holding up! No surprise on the domestic decline, given the overall reduction of capacity nationwide.
    Almost always open to debate...

  94. #94
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    /\ i have noticed a reduction in WJA service to Toronto mid day. Anything else changed?

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    Quote Originally Posted by grish View Post
    i was hoping not to see sub 500,000 a month anymore .

    ps ouch, Debra, missed it by 1 minute! Must be all that nice formatting.
    Yeah, that and my puppies helping me as I type!

  96. #96
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    I think the international and transborder flights must be hurting the domestics as people don't have to transfer as much anymore.

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    Great news as it seems one of the few airports anywhere that is still growing albeit at a slower rate.
    My antidepressent drug of choice is running. Cheaper with less side effects!

  98. #98

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidnorwoodink View Post
    Still impressive numbers! I can't believe how well the transborder and international stats are holding up! No surprise on the domestic decline, given the overall reduction of capacity nationwide.
    I don't think it's so much the decline in capacity as it is the decline in overall economy outside of here. Even if we were still on the level (which I think we are) flights are reflections on both the origin and the destination.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

  99. #99
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    pretty much most of the airports around the world are showing declines, are we are still on the plus side.

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    We're still on track for around 6.5 million for the year and design capacity (I know, I know!) is 7.5 million. I'd say then, we're right on schedule, or darn close to with the hammerhead expansion.

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