Just want to focus on the PAST forecasting and polling tools, methodologies, people, etc that have made several winning predictions in the past. Plus look at news, studies, articles that confirm or challenge general beliefs about who voted for what.


Do White Women Always Vote for Republicans? - The Atlantic

“That “intersectional analysis” is clarifying. Looking at gender and race gets us closer to understanding partisan affiliations in presidential elections than looking at gender alone (as does incorporating still more variables). But something went awry when Junn’s statistic about white female voting in the past 17 elections spread from academia to popular discourse: Left-leaning commentators began to cite it as if it constituted evidence that the driving force in how white women vote is protecting their racial privilege by upholding white supremacy and patriarchy. That simply doesn’t follow.

Of course, one can indeed find all sorts of white women in postwar America who held racist and sexist views that informed their political behavior. Still, commentators who assume their votes are determined by their efforts to protect their racial privilege err in a way that is clear and instructive, serving as a reminder to all of us to be especially careful about fitting facts to a preexisting story about politics that we believe to be true. “


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...en-gop/576586/

Is there a decent forecasting model for Canadian politics:



One of the best election models predicts a Trump victory. Its creator doesn't believe it. - Vox
Jun 14, 2016

“Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz's "Time for Change" makes predictions by considering how the economy is doing (measured by the GDP growth rate the second quarter of the election year), how popular the incumbent is (measured by his Gallup approval rating at the end of June), and whether the incumbent is running for reelection. It has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1992.
If the tepid first quarter GDP growth rate of 0.8 percent keeps up, as does Gallup's current +9 net approval rating for Obama, then the model suggests a Trump victory, 51.3 percent to Hillary Clinton's 48.7 percent. Even if GDP growth shot up dramatically to 3 percent, the model would still project a Trump win.

Alarmed? Well, Abramowitz isn't — in fact, he thinks Clinton will win easily.” “

https://www.vox.com/2016/6/14/118545...itical-science


Bias here?
The past year of research has made it very clear: Trump won because of racial resentment - Vox
https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/...-anxiety-study



Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly - The Washington Post
Sept 23, 2016



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...mes-correctly/