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Thread: How will B.C. react to Kenny the shut off the flow of oil?

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    Default How will B.C. react to Kenney shutting off the flow of oil?

    Assuming Jason Kenney becomes the new Premier with a majority, how will B.C. react to him turning off the pipeline?

    Short term response?

    Long term response?
    Last edited by KC; 17-04-2019 at 09:04 PM.

  2. #2

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    Can he turn off the pipeline? It's owned by the federal government, pipelines like railroads are regulated by the federal government...

    I would have to assume that the federal government would get an injunction to open the taps again in a matter of hours.

    BC would have a small amount of embarrassment at the demonstration of how much they rely on the pipeline, Kenney's promise would be revealed as a fraud but he will crow about fighting for alberta, and the pipeline approval process will continue as before at best, and at worst be delayed as the consequences of this grandstanding ****-show gets added to the pipeline review.
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    ^ Perhaps he could order suspend some operating permits, prevent access to the pumping stations. Which could mean the pipeline capacity would be reduced. No need to shut it off, just reduce capacity

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    And then BC could revoke the business licence for the tank farm and tanker loading port. No need for an export pipeline if you can't get int into a tanker.

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    Whatever stunt the government of Alberta tries to pull will be easily mitigated. Contingencies are already in place. BC will launch a constitutional challenge on principle but not much else will happen beyond Albertans being considered petulant little children, as they typically have been. Vehicles with Alberta plates will still clog the highways in BC this summer and Albertans vacationing in BC will gleefully reinforce the negative stereotypes that they've already created for themselves.

    I myself will be embarrassed to be sporting red plates while travelling in BC this year. May have to get a decal made up that says "Don't blame me, I'm with BC" or something to that effect.

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    I don't really care, Horgan is a smug [email protected], I loathe the man. Although, Weaver us more likely to hiss and growl the loudest!
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    There will be much celebrating among BC environmental activists should the UCP win tomorrow's election. All of the arguments the federal government has been making in favour of the Trans Mountain expansion will be blown to smithereens.

    The expansion project is already facing fierce opposition in the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island. I'll be watching the results of the federal Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election on May 6. This was one of the few competitive four-way races in the country in 2015 with the federal NDP coming out on top: https://www.elections.ca/Scripts/vis...D=-1&PAGEID=28

    Should the Liberal vote collapse relative to that of the NDP and the Greens (both with nominated candidates strongly opposed to the expansion), this could be an early signal to the Trudeau government that continuing to push the expansion in the face of a hostile Alberta government and unrelenting Vancouver Island/Lower Mainland opposition could cost them a bucket load of seats in BC in the fall.
    Last edited by East McCauley; 15-04-2019 at 01:44 PM.

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    The NDP love..love LNG?? Hypocrisy much?
    Many people living in BC support the pipeline.
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    The BC Liberals are not well liked at the moment. In fact, I would say that if an election were called in BC tomorrow the NDP would probably walk away with a majority. The Greens know this so they really have no choice but to back the NDP at this point.

    In a strange way, BC could be helping Alberta in the next federal election. Two very different reasons to be against the Trudeau Liberals but the outcome could be the same.

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    for kenney to think he can "turn of the taps" for transmountain is hubris at best.

    more than 50% of the oil shipped in that pipeline goes to refineries in puget sound, washington with a large percentage of that refined into gasoline which is then imported into the lower mainland.

    while we can increase exports under our trade agreements with the us, we can't decrease them except proportionately on a national basis based on national and not local statistics. bc doesn't have to react to the threat of turning of the pipeline, they can just rely on the us to do that and that would happen on the national stage, not an interprovincial one.

    this empty threat is likely to be ignored by bc while alberta just comes across as a foolish looking bully - something that might explain why the earlier ndp legislation in this regard was tabled but not passed as cooler and saner heads prevailed.
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    Or perhaps AB could 'inspect" every truck with BC plates coming into AB. BC needs to realise that what ever stunt they can pull on AB, AB can pull an equal stunt. Granted, going this way hurts everybody.

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    ^ And then perhaps BC could implement a special homeowners tax on Albertans who own property in BC.

    You see the direction this is going don't you ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rupikhalon001 View Post
    Or perhaps AB could 'inspect" every truck with BC plates coming into AB. BC needs to realise that what ever stunt they can pull on AB, AB can pull an equal stunt. Granted, going this way hurts everybody.
    Something has to be done, I seriously don't know what. I don't think it has to be long, but can't we just show them how much they disrupts us?
    I certainly won't spend any money in BC...
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    ^^^^The legislation was passed by the Legislature but not proclaimed (put into legal force and effect) by Cabinet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by East McCauley View Post
    ^^^^The legislation was passed by the Legislature but not proclaimed (put into legal force and effect) by Cabinet.
    i stand corrected on the actual status - thanks.

    although i'm not sure my conclusion isn't still valid about cooler and saner heads prevailing.
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    It is just saber rattling and can't be implemented. Sounds good in theory. As was mentioned the product goes to multiple locations. I could see the US government getting involved. Line 3 KXL. I did read today that while also looking at tanker traffic the Feds were going to look at all marine traffic because of the Roberts Bank Expansion proposal. If you are concerned about a few extra tankers you should also be concerned about the few hundred extra ships into the straight and the extra trains running along the Fraser.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BalancedOP View Post
    It is just saber rattling and can't be implemented. Sounds good in theory. As was mentioned the product goes to multiple locations. I could see the US government getting involved. Line 3 KXL. I did read today that while also looking at tanker traffic the Feds were going to look at all marine traffic because of the Roberts Bank Expansion proposal. If you are concerned about a few extra tankers you should also be concerned about the few hundred extra ships into the straight and the extra trains running along the Fraser.
    yeah... but that coal is a clean bc export while the oil is a dirty alberta export.

    anyone seen any of the upstream and downstream carbon inclusion calculations that were submitted for those coal export approvals?

    the largest mine they have is 20,304 hectares with 4,263 of those mined or planned for mining. and not tunnels and shafts but open pits producing about 9 million tonnes of "clean coal" per year. the definition of clean coal is primarily metalurgical for steel production rather than thermal production. tech says they still have another 45 years of capacity at fording river alone.

    http://www.mining.com/top-10-british...t-mines-87979/

    https://www.teck.com/operations/cana...ng-river-5668/

    i'm not "anti-coal" per se but the duplicity some are happy to have regarding coal and oil - amongst other things - drives me crazy.
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    I think what most Albertans fail to realize is that a good number of British Columbians tacitly approve of the pipeline, or at least are ambivalent towards it. Here in Alberta it is front & center, it's on everyone's minds as it's the only thing anyone can talk about and has become a lightning rod. British Columbians for the most part don't think about it because even if they don't have a problem with it they just don't care because it has such little bearing on every day life. Vancouverites are used to high prices for everything, people in the interior are used to Albertans who act like asshats, there's really no threat here that Alberta can make that will have any sort of serious consequences. British Columbians have other more pressing priorities like housing affordability, money laundering, the fentanyl crisis, fixing ICBC, all those things take a front seat to a pipeline that really doesn't benefit them. Throwing temper tantrums and making empty threats only makes Albertans look like babies. Maybe this province should elect a slate of adults to the provincial legislature, you might find that your neighbors don't turn their nose up at you if you act in a respectful and cooperative manner.

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    The legislation (Bill 12) was passed in the Legislature in May 2018. It was intended as a nuclear option should BC revive earlier proposals to restrict the amount of Alberta bitumen that could be shipped through the province or similar unconstitutional moves to block the Trans Mountain expansion.

    In response to Alberta's ban on wine imports from BC, the BC government had earlier blinked and decided not to move ahead with plans to restrict bitumen exports referring the matter to the courts instead (no decision has yet been rendered on this referral). Additional context here:

    Premier John Horgan, Thursday, stepped back from the brink of an all out trade war with Alberta by promising to let the courts settle jurisdictional questions about a proposal to ban expanded bitumen shipments through the province.

    Horgan declared the measure wasn’t about backing down, but about trying to take politics out of the process on an issue that drew an explosive reaction from Alberta Premier Rachel Notley with her boycott on B.C. wine and the threat of escalating sanctions if the province didn’t drop the proposal.

    “This is intended to have cooler heads prevail,” Horgan said. “We believe the rule of law is important in this country. We believe the rule of law is paramount to the people of British Columbia.”
    B.C.’s proposed regulations were viewed by Alberta as a threat to Kinder Morgan’s $7.4 billion Trans Mountain Expansion project, which would cost the province thousands of jobs and $1.5 billion per year in revenue to its treasury alone.

    Notley, however, interpreted Horgan’s move differently, and decided that it was enough to suspend the B.C. wine boycott and re-start talks on electricity trade with B.C.
    “In shelving (the proposed bitumen ban), and asking the courts to give it a right that it does not have, B.C. is stepping back from the brink and abiding by the law,” Notley said during a media conference in Edmonton.

    https://vancouversun.com/news/local-...rough-province

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    Quote Originally Posted by 240GLT View Post
    ^ And then perhaps BC could implement a special homeowners tax on Albertans who own property in BC.

    You see the direction this is going don't you ?
    It is already being done.

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    ^ Places where Albertans own vacation properties in droves, such as the Shuswap region, the East Kootenay areas of Invermere & Windermere or even Qualicum Beach on the island are not included in the vacation home tax.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SP59 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by 240GLT View Post
    ^ And then perhaps BC could implement a special homeowners tax on Albertans who own property in BC.

    You see the direction this is going don't you ?
    It is already being done.
    I thought it as as well. I've heard Albertans complain about it..
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    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post

    i'm not "anti-coal" per se but the duplicity some are happy to have regarding coal and oil - amongst other things - drives me crazy.
    Don't worry, if Kenney gets in expect the coal phase out plan in Alberta to join the carbon tax.We'll get to be just as hypocritical as anyone else, claiming we're worried about the climate while upping our carbon output. Win-win!

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    war war and more war. Enough of the lame excuses from our ndp govt pretending to be fighting for Alberta's oil industry.

    BC can be the first victim. The bc premier needs a taste of his own medicine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gwill211 View Post
    war war and more war. Enough of the lame excuses from our ndp govt pretending to be fighting for Alberta's oil industry.

    BC can be the first victim. The bc premier needs a taste of his own medicine.
    do you really think that would be a "war" that alberta could win?

    and even if it is, do you really believe that alberta - or bc or canada - would end up being better off for having waged it?
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    How much equipment and materials for the oil sands come through the port of Vancouver? Tie that up in red tape and see how things work out. Doesn't do you much good sitting on the ship or on the dock.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kkozoriz View Post
    How much equipment and materials for the oil sands come through the port of Vancouver? Tie that up in red tape and see how things work out. Doesn't do you much good sitting on the ship or on the dock.
    There is a massive amount of materials and equipment that makes its way from the Port of Vancouver to industry in Edmonton. It fell off for a few years but is picking back up. Once we counted well over three hundred semis hauling pipe, Atco units and heavy machinery north of on one of our many drives between Valemount and Little Fort. It is as crucial for Alberta to have inbound access to that port as it is to have outbound access.

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    Yeah, good luck building the pipelines if it's all sitting in Vancouver.

    The idea that Alberta holds all the cards is ridiculous. And if the people of BC blame Alberta for the spike in prices and Ontario continues to realize what they've elected in Doug Ford, the Conservatives may hand the next election to the Liberals or a Liberal/NDP coalition. Good luck with the pipelines then.

  29. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by gwill211 View Post
    war war and more war. Enough of the lame excuses from our ndp govt pretending to be fighting for Alberta's oil industry.

    BC can be the first victim. The bc premier needs a taste of his own medicine.
    do you really think that would be a "war" that alberta could win?

    and even if it is, do you really believe that alberta - or bc or canada - would end up being better off for having waged it?

    the war started long ago and Alberta's done nothing... at this rate anything is better then what's happened.

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    Kenney says if premier, he'd enact turn-off-the-taps legislation at first cabinet meeting

    “"We'll turn it into a real law, indicating to the New Democrats in Victoria that if they block our energy, we are prepared to use that," he said.

    "And with gas prices in Vancouver today pushing 1.70 a litre, this is a very strong point of leverage."


    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...taps-1.5089297

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    Construction of the Trans Mountain expansion began last summer and was only halted at the end of August when the Federal Court of Appeal struck down the federal approval.

    When it comes to getting pipelines built to tidewater the federal government has almost all the leverage, and - despite all the sound and fury - the provinces (Alberta and BC) have hardly any.

    The federal approval granted in November 2016 was conditional on Alberta taking meaningful action on climate change and specifically cites the oilsands emissions cap. Should Kenney become Premier, the prospects for an expanded pipeline to tidewater through BC get worse, possibly much worse.

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    The only way the pipelines get built is if it is indigenous peoples corporations doing it. Who will stop them?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Drumbones View Post
    The only way the pipelines get built is if it is indigenous peoples corporations doing it. Who will stop them?

    Indigenous peoples want it built already( more that don't. 40 FN tribes want the work!
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    Ridiculous and accomplishes nothing. What an unproductive thing to even threaten.
    Very Kenneyesque.

    Multinational corporations are going to love even more division entrenched across Canada, that's what they are looking for when deciding to invest.

    If the carbon tax, NDP government and similar corporate taxes are economy killers why is BC booming?

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    Quote Originally Posted by DanC View Post
    Ridiculous and accomplishes nothing. What an unproductive thing to even threaten.
    Very Kenneyesque.

    Multinational corporations are going to love even more division entrenched across Canada, that's what they are looking for when deciding to invest.

    If the carbon tax, NDP government and similar corporate taxes are economy killers why is BC booming?
    Taxes and dirty money. Laundered dirty money, parked in huge houses paying huge taxes..it is nothing to do with the carbon taxtax..
    Laundered money in casinos, and the feds haven't sent the RCMP to do a damn thing about it, so like you, JT can tell some of us, the carbon tax did all that, which is bullsh't.
    Horgan just laid even more taxes on their fuel,typical NDP..oh sure everyone is wealthy in BC. That's why they have so many tent cities!
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    Hong Kong is keeping BC afloat, especially Hongcouver. A lot of places hurting in BC though. Drive the Crowsnest.
    Last edited by Drumbones; 16-04-2019 at 07:07 AM.

  37. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by H.L. View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DanC View Post
    Ridiculous and accomplishes nothing. What an unproductive thing to even threaten.
    Very Kenneyesque.

    Multinational corporations are going to love even more division entrenched across Canada, that's what they are looking for when deciding to invest.

    If the carbon tax, NDP government and similar corporate taxes are economy killers why is BC booming?
    Taxes and dirty money. Laundered dirty money, parked in huge houses paying huge taxes..it is nothing to do with the carbon taxtax..
    Laundered money in casinos, and the feds haven't sent the RCMP to do a damn thing about it, so like you, JT can tell some of us, the carbon tax did all that, which is bullsh't.
    Horgan just laid even more taxes on their fuel,typical NDP..oh sure everyone is wealthy in BC. That's why they have so many tent cities!
    Just like in Alberta, a building / construction boom creates an upward spiral of activity. Everything gets leveraged and huge amounts of money start circulating. My guess is that luxury car sales and foreign travel in B.C. have likely been excessively high for a decade or more there.

  38. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by H.L. View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by DanC View Post
    Ridiculous and accomplishes nothing. What an unproductive thing to even threaten.
    Very Kenneyesque.

    Multinational corporations are going to love even more division entrenched across Canada, that's what they are looking for when deciding to invest.

    If the carbon tax, NDP government and similar corporate taxes are economy killers why is BC booming?
    Taxes and dirty money. Laundered dirty money, parked in huge houses paying huge taxes..it is nothing to do with the carbon taxtax..
    Laundered money in casinos, and the feds haven't sent the RCMP to do a damn thing about it, so like you, JT can tell some of us, the carbon tax did all that, which is bullsh't.
    Horgan just laid even more taxes on their fuel,typical NDP..oh sure everyone is wealthy in BC. That's why they have so many tent cities!
    BC has a diversified economy. Tech and shipping and manufacturing and raw resources. I forgot the provincial government takes in large amounts of property tax from expensive homes. The fuel taxes pay for their remarkable public transit and roads. As far as income tax goes it's actually quite similar between the two provinces unless you make like well over 150k.
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