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Thread: What should NAFTA-II include / exclude?

  1. #1

    Default What should NAFTA-II include / exclude?

    Eg.

    Should NAFTA-II include water exports to the US?

  2. #2
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    FWIW, I think we're getting a bit ahead of ourselves with talk about NAFTA II. The idea is that Trump is gonna scrap NAFTA? I'll believe that when I see it. The major donors to the Republican Party almost certainly don't want that to happen, and I'm pretty sure congressional GOPers(along with the more pro-market Democrats) have ways of thwarting any such efforts.

    If I've misunderstood the premise of this thread, apologies and carry on.

  3. #3

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    ^Its going to be tinkered with, but I am not sure how much will change with Canada, the focus seems to be more on Mexico.

    Canadian officials say the nominee for commerce secretary has indicated a formal-notification letter to open negotiations on NAFTA will be sent to Canada and Mexico within days of Friday’s presidential inauguration.

    The Americans want to discuss country of origin rules and the independent dispute-settlement mechanism that are key features of the 1994 NAFTA pact, officials say. Country of origin rules, which govern how much content from outside NAFTA a product can contain and still qualify to be shipped duty-free, are specific to each product and spelled out in writing. They cover every kind of good and service, from suits to cars. The Trump administration is expected to take a harder line on exactly what can cross the border duty-free.

    NAFTA’s tripartite dispute panels are also on Mr. Ross’s radar, officials say. The United States has long complained these independent panels are unaccountable and give too much power to Mexico and Canada.

    Still, a senior government official told The Globe and Mail the signals from Mr. Trump’s trade team indicate the trade focus will largely be aimed at Mexico, essentially cutting the United States’ southern neighbour out of many NAFTA benefits.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle33653320/

    In other words, they are going to be pushing on Mexico on the basis of labor laws and similar being very different there.

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    I think even the Mexico stuff will be limited in its scope. If it poses too much of a threat to the cross-border traffic of goods and jobs, business will revolt.

    Trump has his followers believing that the US can just make a bunch of demands on Mexico, and Mexico will acquiesce to every one, without any northward pushback that would impact the American economy. Maybe he's right, since the US economy is probably better positioned to absorb the fallout from a trade war, but I'm still pretty skeptical.

  5. #5

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    Trump followers will be satisfied enough at his bloviating tough talk and will just as easily eat up his inevitable excuses and diversions of blame for failure, and trumped-up claims of success.
    I feel in no way entitled to your opinion...

  6. #6

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    Canada given advance notice of Trump’s NAFTA demands - The Globe and Mail
    Excerpt:

    In an interview with Bell Media’s BNN in October, Mr. Ross said Canada would not have a “lot to fear” from a Trump presidency.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle33653320/

  7. #7

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    We traded before NAFTA so we'll trade after it. May learn another hard lesson about the value of diversification along the way, but that's life.

    Why Trump is an exceptional worry for Canada
    As President Donald Trump upends the world order, don’t believe for a second that Canada’s economy will escape unscathed
    Evan Solomon
    January 30, 2017


    But as the man himself likes to say: Wrong.

    Before you buy the Canadian case for the mutually beneficial status quo, it might be wise to take a closer look at folks like Schwarzman, the CEO of the massively powerful Blackstone Group. He has a net worth of almost US$11 billion. Forbes ranks him the 113th richest man on the planet. In a profile of him published in the Guardian back in 2007, when Schwarzman was known as the “King of Wall Street” and lived in a 35-room Manhattan apartment with 13 washrooms and 11 fireplaces, writer Andrew Clark quoted an interview of Schwarzman describing how he approaches a big negotiation. “I want war, not a series of skirmishes,” Schwarzman said. “I always think about what will kill off the other bidder.”

    War. Kill off the other bidder. That’s how you become the King of Wall Street. That’s how you become the chief of the business advisory board for President Donald J. Trump. That’s how you approach a “big negotiation,” like, say, NAFTA. You are a predator atop the financial food chain. To believe that people like Schwarzman or Trump, or Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross (net worth US$2.5 billion) or Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (the former CEO of ExxonMobil whose net worth is a modest US$150 million), will leave Canada alone, that they will look for a better deal with everyone except their second-largest trading partner, is not just naïve—it’s like jumping into a pool filled with great white sharks because you’ve convinced yourself they’re vegetarians.



    http://www.macleans.ca/politics/otta...ry-for-canada/
    Last edited by KC; 30-01-2017 at 07:09 PM.

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    I'm not too worried about Canada. We've lost a ton of jobs to Mexico and some to the U.S.... in the end America's protectionism will benefit us IMO. Consider us the natural resource hand that feeds.

  9. #9

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    A diversified economy and diversified trade can protect our downside.

    Canadians shouldn't ignore trade danger from American protectionism, Brian Mulroney warns
    Gordon Kent, February 2, 2017

    "The country should also pursue trade deals with partners such as the European Union, the United Kingdom, China and other Asian countries, as well as looking at dismantling supply and price controls for dairy and poultry if other countries are willing, he said.

    However, the architect of the landmark deal to fight acid rain in the two countries doesn’t think Canada ..."

    http://edmontonjournal.com/news/nati...mulroney-warns

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    NAFTA II, like the original NAFTA, would have to pass through the US congress, wouldn't it? What is the likelihood the Republican majority will let that go through?

  11. #11

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    Trump Should Play Nice in Nafta Talks, U.S. Chamber Chief Says - Bloomberg
    Excerpt:

    “We would insist on doing it in a way that doesn’t disrupt the $1.3 trillion of trade that depends on Nafta” each year, Donohue said. “It’s our job to ensure that our leaders understand and appreciate how much of our prosperity is linked to this relationship.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ber-chief-says

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    ^ "Donohue said. “It’s our job to ensure that our leaders understand and appreciate how much of our prosperity is linked to this relationship.” Er . . . good luck with that, pal.
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  13. #13

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    Not just dairy anymore.


    For second time this week, Trump jabs at Canada over trade | Jamie Dupree - AJC

    President Donald Trump on Thursday demanded new trade negotiations with Canada, charging American producers are being hurt in trade involving dairy, lumber, timber and energy resources.

    http://jamiedupree.blog.ajc.com/2017...da-over-trade/

    Donald Trump slams Canada for trade practices in energy, lumber, and dairy – Financial Post

    https://www.business.financialpost.c...-lumber-dairy/
    Last edited by KC; 20-04-2017 at 10:26 PM.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Not just dairy anymore.


    For second time this week, Trump jabs at Canada over trade | Jamie Dupree - AJC

    President Donald Trump on Thursday demanded new trade negotiations with Canada, charging American producers are being hurt in trade involving dairy, lumber, timber and energy resources.

    http://jamiedupree.blog.ajc.com/2017...da-over-trade/

    Donald Trump slams Canada for trade practices in energy, lumber, and dairy – Financial Post

    https://www.business.financialpost.c...-lumber-dairy/
    not "just for dairy anymore" but that doesn't necessarily mean that in some of these areas canadian trade practices aren't out to a [non-dairy] lunch.

    we're awfully quick to condemn anyone who wants us to look in the mirror but sometimes the picture in the mirror is pretty ugly. whether it's nafta or bilateral american trade or even interprovincial trade and regulation, we seem to want/expect free access in the other direction and still be able to maintain restricted access at home.

    all's fair until we think that it's our ox being gored even if protecting it means we're wrong.

    you don't have to like trump to accept that some of what he says is likely true.
    Last edited by kcantor; 21-04-2017 at 12:32 PM.
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  15. #15

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    Sixteen pages of NAFTA demands signal tough negotiations ahead | Financial Post


    http://business.financialpost.com/ne...2-a5332b6627f1


    How NAFTA may have made Canada fat | Toronto Star

    https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/...anada-fat.html
    Last edited by KC; 18-07-2017 at 08:25 AM.

  16. #16

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    What a joke

    Conservatives say Trudeau's Rolling Stone cover jeopardizes NAFTA talks but meanwhile Conservative MP Peter Kent wrote an opinion piece about Omar Khadr in the Wall Street Journal, while Conservative MP Michelle Rempel appeared on Fox News with host Tucker Carlson to lambaste the government.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/sche...hadr-1.4215008
    Last edited by Edmonton PRT; 27-07-2017 at 10:48 AM.
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    Canada got to keep Chapter 19 but America first and Protectionism has to go as a part of new trade talks.
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    So the Nafta trade talks are about to get under way. While I understand a bit why America wants a better deal but some of what they want to look at is supply management in the diary industry, and softwood lumber. Its going to get interesting.
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  19. #19

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    Considering the big problem with the American dairy industry is over supply, I don't think that they've got a lot to lecture us about. They're literally paying people to produce milk that ends up being dumped.

    U.S. dairy lobby submits its demands for NAFTA

    Peter Hardin, the longtime editor of a Wisconsin dairy-trade publication, The Milkweed, agreed, in a piece for the Wisconsin State Farmer this spring titled: “Don’t blame Canada for dairy woes, look around.”


    He said the problem isn’t Canada, it’s excessive American milk production, with a 21.8 per cent increase over four years in Michigan, 10.9 per cent in New York, and 7.6 per cent in Wisconsin.

    http://www.citynews.ca/2017/06/13/u-...nds-for-nafta/
    The original story

    Don’t blame Canada for dairy woes, look around


    The shocking news that nearly 100 Wisconsin dairy farmers received termination notices from their buyers this spring is simply a sign that undisciplined milk production in the Great Lakes region is overwhelming our milk marketing system. Don’t blame Canada for Wisconsin’s dairy woes.


    From February 2013 through February 2017, milk production has soared in Michigan (+21.8%), New York (+10.9%) and Wisconsin (+7.6%). Michigan has not made commensurate investments in dairy processing plants to handle those big boosts in farm milk output.


    Canada’s revised Class 7 milk pricing system has been in the works for over one year and represents that nation’s efforts to protect its dairy farmers. Canada has closed a “loophole” in the original North American Free Trade Agreement. That “loophole” (in the recent words of a Cornell University dairy economist) was allowing more than two million lbs. a day (farm milk equivalent) of U.S. “ultra-filtered milk” for manufacturing use. Canada closed that loophole, with more than a year’s advance notice.

    http://www.wisfarmer.com/story/opini...und/100879614/
    Last edited by kkozoriz; 17-08-2017 at 08:11 PM.

  20. #20

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    Trump: ‘We’ll end up probably terminating NAFTA’
    One week into negotiations, the only surprise is how quickly U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to cancel NAFTA came.
    https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2...ing-nafta.html
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  21. #21

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    Let him walk away from NAFTA, keep the deal with Mexico, bring Mexico into the European deal we just signed with the EU. Watch Trump explode.

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    Trump was pandering to his base (or managing expectations). Trump likely can't leave NAFTA without congressional approval especially given the number of states that rely on and benefit from cross border trade with Canada.
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  23. #23

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    Interesting timing of this duty.

    U.S. imposing 220% duty on Bombardier CSeries planes
    http://www.cbc.ca/1.4308590

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    ~ 1,000 aerospace workers in the UK are also affected by this Bombardier tariff.

    Even if congress approves leaving Nafta trade will continue between both countries.

    Sure there might be winners and loser here but imo Canada should focus on the TPP, should the US leave anyway. Always good to have a plan B.
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    Bombardier and it being subsidized was brought up awhile by Brazil, who was going to take to the WTO.


    https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/rep...beandmail.com&

  26. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by H.L. View Post
    Bombardier and it being subsidized was brought up awhile by Brazil, who was going to take to the WTO.


    https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/rep...beandmail.com&
    Geez, I wondered how this site's cadre of Trumpchuggers would interpret the announcement...
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  27. #27

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    People in glass houses...

    As if the European Union, Brazil, Canada or the USA don't subsidize their aircraft manufacturers...

    It is like claiming that none subsidize their farmers.

    Who is trying to fool who?
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    Boeing received $ 64 billion from the US government.

    https://globalnews.ca/news/3773916/b...%3AFacebook%5D
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  29. #29

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    The timing of the bombardier announcement sure puzzles me. It just seems like they pulled an end run around the US - before the NAFTA negotiations have been completed. Is that to show the US something or other?


    Bombardier to partner with Airbus on CSeries program
    http://www.cbc.ca/1.4357567

  30. #30

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    Top Trump official says U.S. isn’t offering ‘anything’ to Canada in exchange for NAFTA demands | Toronto Star

    Excerpt:
    “As he has in the past, Trump said he thinks the only way to secure a good deal for the U.S. is to put pressure on the other two countries by initiating a termination. He said his negotiators “are going to have to get tougher.”

    https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2...a-demands.html

  31. #31

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    Life after NAFTA: Canadian businesses start to plan for bleak new trade reality - Business - CBC News
    Excerpt:

    RBC Economics Research released a report this week entitled "Life after NAFTA?" and the short answer to that rhetorical question is grim.

    A "bad" result — either a renegotiated deal that delivers less trade or the deal being torn up entirely — is now "increasingly likely," the report said.

    "Our estimates suggest that a roughly four per cent across-the-board increase in tariffs between Canada and the U.S. would reduce Canadian GDP growth by about one per cent over five to 10 years. "

    The report says that may not sound like much, but added up would mean "about $20 billion (in today's dollars) of annual output over time."

    So that lack of certainty becomes ...”

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/naft...rong-1.4393021
    Last edited by KC; 11-11-2017 at 11:38 AM.

  32. #32
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    Screw Nafta, embrace TPP
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  33. #33

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    Thinking the unthinkable on NAFTA has C$ traders doomsday prepping | Financial Post

    http://business.financialpost.com/ne...msday-prepping




    What happens if NAFTA is killed? RBC looks at Canada’s possible future - National | Globalnews.ca
    Excerpt
    “If the United States sticks to regulations set by the World Trade Organization (WTO), RBC predicts that Canadian GDP could drop by a total of one per cent in up to 10 years.”

    https://globalnews.ca/news/3854278/l...da-rbc-report/

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