Should NAFTA-II include water exports to the US?
Should NAFTA-II include water exports to the US?
FWIW, I think we're getting a bit ahead of ourselves with talk about NAFTA II. The idea is that Trump is gonna scrap NAFTA? I'll believe that when I see it. The major donors to the Republican Party almost certainly don't want that to happen, and I'm pretty sure congressional GOPers(along with the more pro-market Democrats) have ways of thwarting any such efforts.
If I've misunderstood the premise of this thread, apologies and carry on.
^Its going to be tinkered with, but I am not sure how much will change with Canada, the focus seems to be more on Mexico.
Canadian officials say the nominee for commerce secretary has indicated a formal-notification letter to open negotiations on NAFTA will be sent to Canada and Mexico within days of Friday’s presidential inauguration.
The Americans want to discuss country of origin rules and the independent dispute-settlement mechanism that are key features of the 1994 NAFTA pact, officials say. Country of origin rules, which govern how much content from outside NAFTA a product can contain and still qualify to be shipped duty-free, are specific to each product and spelled out in writing. They cover every kind of good and service, from suits to cars. The Trump administration is expected to take a harder line on exactly what can cross the border duty-free.
NAFTA’s tripartite dispute panels are also on Mr. Ross’s radar, officials say. The United States has long complained these independent panels are unaccountable and give too much power to Mexico and Canada.
Still, a senior government official told The Globe and Mail the signals from Mr. Trump’s trade team indicate the trade focus will largely be aimed at Mexico, essentially cutting the United States’ southern neighbour out of many NAFTA benefits.
In other words, they are going to be pushing on Mexico on the basis of labor laws and similar being very different there.
I think even the Mexico stuff will be limited in its scope. If it poses too much of a threat to the cross-border traffic of goods and jobs, business will revolt.
Trump has his followers believing that the US can just make a bunch of demands on Mexico, and Mexico will acquiesce to every one, without any northward pushback that would impact the American economy. Maybe he's right, since the US economy is probably better positioned to absorb the fallout from a trade war, but I'm still pretty skeptical.
Trump followers will be satisfied enough at his bloviating tough talk and will just as easily eat up his inevitable excuses and diversions of blame for failure, and trumped-up claims of success.
I feel in no way entitled to your opinion...
Canada given advance notice of Trump’s NAFTA demands - The Globe and Mail
In an interview with Bell Media’s BNN in October, Mr. Ross said Canada would not have a “lot to fear” from a Trump presidency.
We traded before NAFTA so we'll trade after it. May learn another hard lesson about the value of diversification along the way, but that's life.
Why Trump is an exceptional worry for Canada
As President Donald Trump upends the world order, don’t believe for a second that Canada’s economy will escape unscathed
January 30, 2017
But as the man himself likes to say: Wrong.
Before you buy the Canadian case for the mutually beneficial status quo, it might be wise to take a closer look at folks like Schwarzman, the CEO of the massively powerful Blackstone Group. He has a net worth of almost US$11 billion. Forbes ranks him the 113th richest man on the planet. In a profile of him published in the Guardian back in 2007, when Schwarzman was known as the “King of Wall Street” and lived in a 35-room Manhattan apartment with 13 washrooms and 11 fireplaces, writer Andrew Clark quoted an interview of Schwarzman describing how he approaches a big negotiation. “I want war, not a series of skirmishes,” Schwarzman said. “I always think about what will kill off the other bidder.”
War. Kill off the other bidder. That’s how you become the King of Wall Street. That’s how you become the chief of the business advisory board for President Donald J. Trump. That’s how you approach a “big negotiation,” like, say, NAFTA. You are a predator atop the financial food chain. To believe that people like Schwarzman or Trump, or Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross (net worth US$2.5 billion) or Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (the former CEO of ExxonMobil whose net worth is a modest US$150 million), will leave Canada alone, that they will look for a better deal with everyone except their second-largest trading partner, is not just naïve—it’s like jumping into a pool filled with great white sharks because you’ve convinced yourself they’re vegetarians.
Last edited by KC; 30-01-2017 at 06:09 PM.
I'm not too worried about Canada. We've lost a ton of jobs to Mexico and some to the U.S.... in the end America's protectionism will benefit us IMO. Consider us the natural resource hand that feeds.
A diversified economy and diversified trade can protect our downside.
Canadians shouldn't ignore trade danger from American protectionism, Brian Mulroney warns
Gordon Kent, February 2, 2017
"The country should also pursue trade deals with partners such as the European Union, the United Kingdom, China and other Asian countries, as well as looking at dismantling supply and price controls for dairy and poultry if other countries are willing, he said.
However, the architect of the landmark deal to fight acid rain in the two countries doesn’t think Canada ..."
NAFTA II, like the original NAFTA, would have to pass through the US congress, wouldn't it? What is the likelihood the Republican majority will let that go through?
Trump Should Play Nice in Nafta Talks, U.S. Chamber Chief Says - Bloomberg
“We would insist on doing it in a way that doesn’t disrupt the $1.3 trillion of trade that depends on Nafta” each year, Donohue said. “It’s our job to ensure that our leaders understand and appreciate how much of our prosperity is linked to this relationship.”
^ "Donohue said. “It’s our job to ensure that our leaders understand and appreciate how much of our prosperity is linked to this relationship.” Er . . . good luck with that, pal.
Nisi Dominus Frustra
Not just dairy anymore.
For second time this week, Trump jabs at Canada over trade | Jamie Dupree - AJC
President Donald Trump on Thursday demanded new trade negotiations with Canada, charging American producers are being hurt in trade involving dairy, lumber, timber and energy resources.
Donald Trump slams Canada for trade practices in energy, lumber, and dairy – Financial Post
Last edited by KC; 20-04-2017 at 09:26 PM.
we're awfully quick to condemn anyone who wants us to look in the mirror but sometimes the picture in the mirror is pretty ugly. whether it's nafta or bilateral american trade or even interprovincial trade and regulation, we seem to want/expect free access in the other direction and still be able to maintain restricted access at home.
all's fair until we think that it's our ox being gored even if protecting it means we're wrong.
you don't have to like trump to accept that some of what he says is likely true.
Last edited by kcantor; 21-04-2017 at 11:32 AM.
"If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee