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Thread: Peak Gasoline demand

  1. #1

    Default Peak Gasoline demand

    interesting article here to start a discussion.

    Tesla Shock Means Global Gasoline Demand Has All But Peaked
    Javier Blas and Laura Blewitt, November 21, 2016


    "The International Energy Agency forecasts that global gasoline consumption has all but peaked as more efficient cars and the advent of electric vehicles from new players such as Tesla Motors Inc. halt demand growth in the next 25 years. That shift will have profound consequences for the oil-refining industry because gasoline accounts for one in four barrels consumed worldwide.

    “Electric cars are happening,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in an interview in London, adding that their number will rise from little more than 1 million last year to more than 150 million by 2040.

    The cresting of gasoline demand shows how rapidly the oil landscape is changing, casting a shadow over an industry that commonly forecasts decades of growth ahead. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the world’s second-biggest energy company by market value, shocked rivals this month when a senior executive said overall oil demand could peak in as little as five years.
    The IEA doesn’t share Shell’s pessimism...

    "The biggest victim is likely to be..."

    "Diesel seems to be almost like a utility fuel..."


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...all-but-peaked



  2. #2

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    This is why the NDP plan is the right plan. Going hog wild to produce even more oil will just saturate the market, further driving down prices. We have enough production. We need to move forward. This sucks for those who were employed in drilling that are out of work, but there will be no jobs here ever if we continue down that path. It's time to move forward.

    Wildrose, Kenney, and their ilk are willing to ensure our province has no future whatsoever for a few short-term jobs today.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

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    Where's that like button?

    I'm in the O&G industry doing plant shut downs when they occur, usually in the warmer months. Even I, as a sub contractor that takes home a paycheck working at a plant that usually manufactures' oil and/or gas, refuse to stick my head up my arse unlike many Albertans knowing that the future is coming and it's changing. It's a fact of life, nobody likes change and the fear of the unknown. We simply cannot keep relying on O&G to the extent we do in this province, overall economy being one thing and the boom & busts that so many of us have seen come and go. We WILL be left behind unless we start adapting.

  4. #4

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    It's a no-brainer when you factor in the direction Trump plans to go with increased output plus the mega reserve they just discovered in Texas. Our exports to the US will very likely be reduced over the next few years. We'll build a pipeline to the west coast, and we should, to keep moving what we produce now, but that's it. Nobody will need any more than that.

    The NDP is nailing it. They know this, and are putting investment dollars into upgraded petrochemicals used in other areas of manufacturing so our existing production doesn't end up wasted. They're looking to diversify with digital media and tourism, food manufacturing, and up until recently, tried to position Alberta as a hospitable place for green tech. The feds jumped on that bandwagon and will likely pump real money into SW Ontario to rejuvenate industry down there in new tech, which is also prudent. Carbon taxes will spur that development by creating demand for new technologies.

    Good things are coming Canada's way if we keep our eye on the prize.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

  5. #5

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    There are some companies here in Edmonton that you wouldn't think would be here. Campbell Scientific comes to mind - one of the only companies of its type in Canada, but surely won't in the near future. They do a lot of work in green tech and have a ton of contracts out in Ontario. They have things here, but not as much as Ontario with the subsidized program they ran for solar energy. Regardless, there are companies here that have the future in mind. Stantec has done a great job of diversifying as well.

  6. #6

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    The world is depleting it's cheapest known reserves of oil and gas first making for upward price pressures until supply bumps into the production from newer cheaper reserves. Fortunately for us the view that this is a declining demand market will reduce completion as investors see higher risk and accelerating downward declines in market share. Tobacco production might be a good comparison. Where increasing numbers of people gave up smoking and farmers seeing the writing on the wall shifted to other crops. All along, some tobacco companies did very well. The farmers likely did ok too. So, in the case of our long life reserves we may just have to shift from the extract to burn model to an extract to make model.

  7. #7

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    While I think electric cars and fuel cell vehicles are coming, they aren't there yet. People aren't buying them at the rates predicted, and there are still significant issues with charge times and infrastructure. The fastest TESLA is slower than a Ford Transit Van around the Nuremburg ring (TESLAs can go fast, but the battery is rapidly drained then and the speed can't be sustained for any distance). Have a look at Formula E - its hopeless compared to Formula One, with vehicles needing to be changed. One day, but not yet, probably not in our lifetimes re gasoline vehicles off the roads. In the meantime, demand for gasoline in the developing world is still rapidly growing as the middle classes increase. It just so happens that cheap and pretty much endless supply has occured as well, from the technology of the fracking revolution.
    Last edited by moahunter; 23-11-2016 at 08:59 AM.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    While I think electric cars and fuel cell vehicles are coming, they aren't there yet. People aren't buying them at the rates predicted, and there are still significant issues with charge times and infrastructure. The fastest TESLA is slower than a Ford Transit Van around the Nuremburg ring (TESLAs can go fast, but the battery is rapidly drained then and the speed can't be sustained for any distance). One day, but not yet, probably not in our lifetimes re gasoline vehicles off the roads.
    Not here but apparently in China they are already quite popular. I think we are near a tipping point in terms of storage technologies (new batteries or super capacitors or something) and so expect something revolutionary in my lifetime. (I've been thinking that way for decades though. ... Of course, spending a trillion or two trillion bucks on wars and security issues, etc rather than devoting those dollars to completely eliminating any dependence on the Middle East oil wasn't in my thinking in the 1990s. One step forward and two steps back as politics and emotions trump strategic thinking.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter
    The fastest TESLA is slower than a Ford Transit Van around the Nuremburg ring (TESLAs can go fast, but the battery is rapidly drained then and the speed can't be sustained for any distance).


    First of all, Nurburgring (not Nuremburg) times are pretty irrelevant when it comes to day to day driving. That's a course used by manufacturers to argue who has the biggest phallus, sorry, fastest super and hyper cars. Second, you're just plain wrong. I haven't heard of any Ford Transit's doing 8:50 laps there:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dphw4km60m4

    Yes, power has to be restricted after a few minutes to protect the battery from overheating. You're probably referring to some out dated Top Gear episode, likely one that was based on the Roadster and not a Model S. Near as I can tell, a heavily modified Transit with a Viper giving it slipstream and a professional race car driver behind the wheel, a Transit couldn't even come close to breaking 10 minutes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...eife_lap_times). That episode is from nearly 12 years ago.

  10. #10

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    ^my bad, but it still sucks big time versus gasoline vehicles:

    http://www.motorauthority.com/news/1...-model-s-video

    Recent performance road cars are surprisingly good on track, by comparison--though some are still out of their depth. Take Tesla Motors' [NSDQ:TSLA] all-electric Model S around the Nürburgring, for example, and you soon begin to find limitations that just aren't there when you drive it on the road. Racing driver Robb Holland has discovered just that, as the Model S he pilots in the video above struggles under its own weight.

    In fact, after just a third of the 14-mile lap, the Model S went into a reduced-power mode to help preserve the battery. Even up to that point, things weren't exactly going swimmingly--Holland described the car to Jalopnik as too heavy (it weighs in around the 4,700 lb mark), too short of mechanical grip and devoid of steering feel. But he wasn't without praise for the electric sedan. Holland suggests the car is capable of a 9-minute lap if it doesn't overheat, and that as a brand new car from a company that didn't exist a decade ago--one not at all designed for track use--it's still an impressive vehicle.
    TESLA's are basically toy second cars, fun to potter around in on weekends, but a pain to take anywhere. Someone was telling me recently drove to Edmonton from Calgary, plugged it in at hotel, then next morning car was dead because hotel had the charger switched off. Its more hassle than its worth as of today. Personally I think fuel cell technology with hydrogen is a much better path to a clean energy future.
    Last edited by moahunter; 23-11-2016 at 10:25 AM.

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    And what widely available, full production fuel cell vehicles have completed Nurburgring laps under 9 minutes and have ranges of 400+ km in a standard vehicle form like a Model S? Oh right, none.

    But yeah, electric vehicles just aren't there yet.

    And again, what relevance do Nurburgring lap times have on day to day commuting that people will use their Tesla for 99% of the time? None. You don't buy a Tesla, or any typical consumer car (outside of ones like Miata's), for track use. You're grasping at straws here moahunter. No one's claiming that the Model S is the perfect vehicle for long distance travel. But for what is essentially the first large production electric car, it's pretty damn good for daily commuting use and the occasional trip out of town in most of the US and Europe. Supercharger availability continues to be mediocre in Northern Alberta and BC, but it's pretty decent along the Transcanada now.
    Last edited by Marcel Petrin; 23-11-2016 at 10:45 AM.

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    I didn't know the supercharger network had filled out much in Canada yet, but apparently you could make it from Edmonton to Vancouver no problem (superchargers in Red Deer, Calgary, Canmore, Golden, Revy, Kamloops, Hope, Vancouver). And from there, pretty much anywhere in the States.

  13. #13

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    Hydrogen filling stations:

    Electricity:
    Giving less of a damn than ever… Happily ignoring the ignorant rather than getting in a battle of wits with unarmed opponents.

  14. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by nobleea View Post
    I didn't know the supercharger network had filled out much in Canada yet, but apparently you could make it from Edmonton to Vancouver no problem (superchargers in Red Deer, Calgary, Canmore, Golden, Revy, Kamloops, Hope, Vancouver). And from there, pretty much anywhere in the States.
    You "could" while there are only a few electric cars on the road. But there are also reported cases of "supercharger rage", where people drive up to a supercharger, and get stuck waiting for 4 hours because someone is plugged in and has gone off for a fancy dinner. Even at a 30 minute charge, think through how many chargers you would need to fill up all the 30,000 odd vehciles travelling from Edmonton to Calgary each day. There is a big difference between a 5 minute gas fillup and a six times longer electric charge, assuming the person doesn't decide to hike off somewhere - basically it requires six times as much infrastructure. That's a lot of growth for Gasoline Alley.
    Last edited by moahunter; 23-11-2016 at 11:55 AM.

  15. #15

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    Peak gasoline doesn't require electrics and fuel cells. Average MPG has dropped so much that we're peaking even with ICE's. Besides, electric adoption is ramping up so fast that soon hybrids will be standard, with PHEV's from nearly every manufacturer. Audi is exiting Le Mans - of which it has been the leading manufacturer - to focus on electric car racing.

    Your arguments do not reflect reality. Banking Alberta's future on an energy source that is falling out of fashion will destroy us.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

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    Improvements in MPG in ICEs certainly help and is likely enough to overcome the growth in ICE as they are competing forces. The vast majority of a barrel of oil are converted in to gas and diesel. They could be converted in to something else at the refinery stage. The demand for OIL is still increasing and doesn't really show signs of stopping.

  17. #17
    Giving less of a damn than ever… Happily ignoring the ignorant rather than getting in a battle of wits with unarmed opponents.

  18. #18

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    I believe there's a lot of speculation that the decrease in gasoline and diesel is largely enough to satisfy increased demand in other areas, with total oil demand at a plateau, and likely to decline. I'm not expecting a plastic alternative tomorrow, but we're starting to see alternatives showing up and as soon as something becomes largely viable... bam.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

  19. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    While I think electric cars and fuel cell vehicles are coming, they aren't there yet. People aren't buying them at the rates predicted, and there are still significant issues with charge times and infrastructure. The fastest TESLA is slower than a Ford Transit Van around the Nuremburg ring (TESLAs can go fast, but the battery is rapidly drained then and the speed can't be sustained for any distance). Have a look at Formula E - its hopeless compared to Formula One, with vehicles needing to be changed. One day, but not yet, probably not in our lifetimes re gasoline vehicles off the roads. In the meantime, demand for gasoline in the developing world is still rapidly growing as the middle classes increase. It just so happens that cheap and pretty much endless supply has occured as well, from the technology of the fracking revolution.
    My commute does not involve the Nuremburg ring - really. Many people are using their vehicles mostly in an urban environment where the speeds are quite low with some occasional highway driving. Given the number of electric and hybrid vehicles already being produced and sold, I am guessing if we aren't there yet we are getting very close. However, I agree there is also a relationship with oil/gas price - the lower it is the slower the transition will be, if it goes higher the transition will accelerate. However, there are other factors here such as stricter emission standards in urban environments where smog/pollution is an issue, that are relevant too. I can see this issue becoming more important soon in the developing world as well as the developed one.

  20. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chmilz View Post
    Peak gasoline doesn't require electrics and fuel cells. Average MPG has dropped so much that we're peaking even with ICE's. Besides, electric adoption is ramping up so fast that soon hybrids will be standard, with PHEV's from nearly every manufacturer. Audi is exiting Le Mans - of which it has been the leading manufacturer - to focus on electric car racing.

    Your arguments do not reflect reality. Banking Alberta's future on an energy source that is falling out of fashion will destroy us.
    Is natural gas falling out of "fashion"? There isn't really a better way to heat your house up here. In north America demand for gasoline has peaked, but it is going to be a long time before it peaks in places like Brazil, or India, or China, or Philippines, etc. Once the rest of the world have lifestyles similar to ours, I agree, there won't be much more growth in it, it will just be maintenance / cost reduction, and a slow decline as MPG improves, hybrids become mandated, and one day eventually, maybe 50 years or so, fuel cell vehicles or electric start to take over. So far the uptake on electric has been very slow though, see for example my old thread "is this the beginning of the end of super profits in the oil industry", when the Leaf was released, it has never lived up to Nissan's hopes even though providing sufficient range for most people commutes at a reasonable price. I'd have a hard time trading in my Ford Explorer for a prius (too many kids). I've had a hybrid RX400h, which I liked a lot, but it didn't really get much better fuel economy for my type of driving (primarily highway). I can't see most Albertan's trading in their F150's for Tesla's to tow their Trailers anytime soon, nor most Americans. The real reduction isn't coming from electrification, its coming from technology like those Aluminum bodies on the F150's, and advances in turbo and other gasoline engine technologies.
    Last edited by moahunter; 23-11-2016 at 01:25 PM.

  21. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Chmilz View Post
    Peak gasoline doesn't require electrics and fuel cells. Average MPG has dropped so much that we're peaking even with ICE's. Besides, electric adoption is ramping up so fast that soon hybrids will be standard, with PHEV's from nearly every manufacturer. Audi is exiting Le Mans - of which it has been the leading manufacturer - to focus on electric car racing.

    Your arguments do not reflect reality. Banking Alberta's future on an energy source that is falling out of fashion will destroy us.
    Is natural gas falling out of "fashion"? There isn't really a better way to heat your house up here. In north America demand for gasoline has peaked, but it is going to be a long time before it peaks in places like Brazil, or India, or China, or Philippines, etc. Once the rest of the world have lifestyles similar to ours, I agree, there won't be much more growth in it, it will just be maintenance / cost reduction, and a slow decline as MPG improves, hybrids become mandated, and one day eventually, maybe 50 years or so, fuel cell vehicles or electric start to take over. So far the uptake on electric has been very slow though, see for example my old thread "is this the beginning of the end of super profits in the oil industry", when the Leaf was released, it has never lived up to Nissan's hopes even though providing sufficient range for most people commutes at a reasonable price. I'd have a hard time trading in my Ford Explorer for a prius (too many kids). I've had a hybrid RX400h, which I liked a lot, but it didn't really get much better fuel economy for my type of driving (primarily highway). I can't see most Albertan's trading in their F150's for Tesla's to tow their Trailers anytime soon, nor most Americans. The real reduction isn't coming from electrification, its coming from technology like those Aluminum bodies on the F150's, and advances in turbo and other gasoline engine technologies.
    I agree natural gas is not falling out of fashion, especially here. In fact, probably more of it will be used to replace coal here and elsewhere in the future. However, I expect some warmer and windier places will also use much more solar and wind power instead. I don't think electric is for everyone, so I don't expect all those F150's to be replaced by them. However, I am also surprised by how many taxis and even SUV's are becoming hybrids. Yes, the Leaf did not work out - I wonder how serious some of the traditional car companies are about electric vehicles. On the other hand, Tesla is definitely serious and they are focused on that market. People are not mostly riding bikes or donkeys in the big cities in places like Brazil, China or the Philippines anymore - that was 20 or 30 years ago. Their roads are as congested with cars as ours and the pollution problems are worse. Yes, they will probably still add more cars, but some of those will be hybrid or electric too - not everyone that lives there is poor. I think electric cars and hybrids will gain more traction in urban/commuter markets, especially bigger cities in North America and elsewhere in the world - probably not as much in rural Alberta.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter
    So far the uptake on electric has been very slow though
    Yeah, a doubling of them on the road in a single calendar year is so incredibly slow. Absolutely.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/iea-...ergy-1.3863777

    Currently, there's about 1.3 million electric vehicles on roads worldwide, about twice as many as there were last year.
    Granted, that's from a low base. But the point remains that electric vehicles are rapidly gaining momentum and market share, and that is likely to continue to accelerate as the technology improves. If this were 1916 instead of 2016, moahunter would be complaining that the Model T just can't beat a horse in the Kentucky Derby, and lamenting how few petrol stations there were in the middle of Oklahoma.

  23. #23

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    Natural gas use will continue to grow. I'm pretty sure we currently overproduce that as well.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

  24. #24

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    There was a (very short) time during the Fort Mac wildfires & associated shutdowns where NG oversupply was so high that they were literally giving it away. The spot price was $0.

    Most of the coal power generation is going to be replace with natural gas over the next few years (even if we green as much as we can, we need backup base load generation, which'll be NG.)
    Giving less of a damn than ever… Happily ignoring the ignorant rather than getting in a battle of wits with unarmed opponents.

  25. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter
    So far the uptake on electric has been very slow though
    Yeah, a doubling of them on the road in a single calendar year is so incredibly slow. Absolutely.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/iea-...ergy-1.3863777

    Currently, there's about 1.3 million electric vehicles on roads worldwide, about twice as many as there were last year.
    Granted, that's from a low base. But the point remains that electric vehicles are rapidly gaining momentum and market share, and that is likely to continue to accelerate as the technology improves. If this were 1916 instead of 2016, moahunter would be complaining that the Model T just can't beat a horse in the Kentucky Derby, and lamenting how few petrol stations there were in the middle of Oklahoma.
    Yeah, it is. A doubling from almost nothing, to slightly less almost nothing, is very slow. When Nissan introduced the Leaf, they predicted massively higher sales than now. Here is an Australian article, but pretty much same everywhere:

    In 2010 the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, which represents carmakers, predicted EVs would be 0.5 per cent of the market by now. They are less than 0.1 per cent.

    ...

    We’re all familiar with the notion of a tipping point, and the number of electric vehicles available, including pure battery cars and plug-in hybrids, is multiplying fast. One Australian study suggested supply would be an issue until this year, and after that the graph would rise steeply.

    Certainly, the choice of electric vehicles everywhere has been limited. More will come, with most carmakers eventually offering standard models with one or both systems. They know it’s the only way they can meet increasingly stringent emissions targets.

    But anyone who thinks supply is the problem is kidding themselves. Buyers aren’t buying. That’s the problem. Recent falls in petrol prices don’t help, of course. But even before that, buyers can see EVs don’t add up.

    Take a closer look at the global picture and it’s clear the EV fleet is concentrated in just a few places. Two-thirds of the 665,000 on the planet are in China, Japan and the US. And when it comes to the US, we’re talking California.

    Markets where EVs have been a success have thrown huge sums at buyers and offered valuable incentives such as transit-lane access.

    Norway, where EVs have captured 12 per cent of the new car market and it’s not unusual for the Tesla Model S to be the bestseller, is reconsidering its incentive scheme. Why subsidise luxury car buyers?

    The penny has dropped among carmakers that EVs have fallen flat. General Motors is just the latest to retreat from sales targets. And this in the face of some trends going their way, such as falling battery costs.
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/life...007c03e37c09f4

    So basically, when you have massive government subsidies, or regulations, people will buy them, but given the choice on an equal playing field, most people won't. Until you can get an F150 electric which has the same towing and range as the gasoline models (which are getting better all the time), at the same price, I don't see that significantly changing.
    Last edited by moahunter; 24-11-2016 at 12:00 PM.

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    We'll see what happens when Tesla releases the Model 3, and other manufacturers release similarly priced/designed EV's. At present, your option for an EV is a high end luxury car analogous to BMW 7 series (you don't see many of those on the road, either), or a souped up go-cart with terrible range in the Leaf. The impact of the Gigafactory on battery prices is also going to be a huge factor.

    As far as larger trucks for towing/hauling, that's going to be a longer ways off, and is dependent on advances in battery technology. Once again though, how many F-150 type fuel cell vehicles are there on the horizon?
    Last edited by Marcel Petrin; 24-11-2016 at 12:33 PM.

  27. #27

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    The second you can get a mid-size SUV like the CRV and RAV4 in a decent hybrid option that isn't really more expensive, you'll see uptake skyrocket and fuel usage plummet here.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

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