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Thread: NAFTA - should we get rid of it? Renegotiate it?

  1. #1

    Default NAFTA - should we get rid of it? Renegotiate it?

    NAFTA wasn't exactly embraced by Canadians when it was introduced. Should we now embrace the chance to cancel or rewrite it (since Trump wants to do the same)?

  2. #2

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    NAFTA is a bit entrenched. It could be killed off. Some good, some bad. Depends on who you ask.

    TPP is dead, so it's not like things can't/won't change. Too many factors at play right now. If you or anyone else knows what's coming down the pipe there is certainly a few billion in it you/them.

    Rewriting NAFTA would be ugly as all hell.

  3. #3

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    Reconstitute the Commonwealth!
    Let's make Edmonton better.

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    if they want to renegotiate the deal meaning they have to start all over from the scratch but some of the deal in it would be saved.
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    How far would CETA alleviate the demise of NAFTA?
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    good question
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  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by LoebsPeugot208 View Post
    Rewriting NAFTA would be ugly as all hell.
    If the US wants to renegotiate any trade deals, it will be good for the US and they won't care about how good it is for anyone else. One of the most difficult pieces of trade agreements today is copyright. The US has a massive music and media industry that we don't have, and their desire to force draconian and overwhelming punitive rules to protect that on any signatories will be a focal point, just like it is with TPP. This is not good for us as individual citizens.

    Putting that aside, I'm torn on breaking up free trade as a whole. On one hand, I'd love to see auto manufacturing move back to Canada. On the other, car prices would skyrocket unless union fat was removed in the process. We can't have it both ways.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by howie View Post
    How far would CETA alleviate the demise of NAFTA?
    It would depend on the specifics of the reneg of NAFTA, but if it were just one on and one off, it would do maybe 10% of what NAFTA does for us.

    There's bad and good in NAFTA, mind you. NAFTA killed a lot of the independent Canadian companies, and those head office jobs were not replaced. The other sectors would suffer though.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
    Reconstitute the Commonwealth!
    Can we please exclude England, though?

    I don't mind Scotland and Ireland.

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    Mexico benefits the most from NAFTA because you see many auto jobs went there Canada and USA. USA gets a bit from Canada but what do we get it from this deal ?? not much.
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    Yeah, we get nothing.

    Oh wait....increases in trade, replacement of noncompetitive manufacturing jobs in dying industries with jobs in trade, technology, finance, etc. We get open markets to export into, increased economic activity, lowering of deadweight loss within the macroeconomy.

    But hey, loss of those auto jobs.... Just so narrow minded.

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    The problem with trade agreements is that they go far beyond a simple agreement to treat imported products the same as equivalent domestic products. The USA trying to force their copyright laws onto everyone else is a good example of something that has no business being in a trade agreement.

  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by Titanium48 View Post
    The problem with trade agreements is that they go far beyond a simple agreement to treat imported products the same as equivalent domestic products. The USA trying to force their copyright laws onto everyone else is a good example of something that has no business being in a trade agreement.
    That copyright crap is such an incredibly bad deal for all other countries. I truly hope TPP dies under Trump if only so we don't get their garbage copyright laws.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

  14. #14

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    It seems the a huge chunk of the western world will be wrestling over trade agreements. EU Countries after Brexit will be negotiating trade deals. The U.K. no longer in the E.U. will be negotiating their own trade deals. Now the U.S. under Trump going after new trading agreements. I doubt that negotiations get settled over night.
    By the time these agreements get sorted there will be elections and Trump may well be voted out.
    "The man who does not read has no advantage over the man who cannot read." –Mark Twain

  15. #15

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    If any of you are into sci-fi, go see Arrival. It was an incredibly good, cerebral movie, and it really makes you think about geopolitics, trade, etc. and the ramifications for us as a species.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

  16. #16

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    A pre-election campaign article. Makes Canada sound like a real winner out of the deal. This sure shouldn't be surprising though:

    "The study makes for a blood-boiling read. For instance, we track the specific promises made by U.S. corporations like GE, Chrysler and Caterpillar to create specific numbers of American jobs if NAFTA was approved, and reveal government data showing that instead, they fired U.S. workers and moved operations to Mexico. "..."only 15 percent believe the U.S. should “continue to be a member of NAFTA.” "




    NAFTA at 20: One Million U.S. Jobs Lost, Higher Income Inequality
    01/06/2014

    “…

    For NAFTA’s unhappy 20th anniversary, Public Citizen has published a report that details the wreckage. Not only did promises made by NAFTA’s proponents not materialize, but many results are exactly the opposite.

    Such outcomes include a staggering $181 billion U.S. trade deficit with NAFTA partners Mexico and Canada and the related loss of 1 million net U.S. jobs under NAFTA, growing income inequality, displacement of more than one million Mexican campesino farmers and a doubling of desperate immigration from Mexico, and more than $360 million paid to corporations after “investor-state” tribunal attacks on, and rollbacks of, domestic public interest policies.

    The study makes for a blood-boiling read. For instance, we track the specific promises made by U.S. corporations like GE, Chrysler and Caterpillar to create specific numbers of American jobs if NAFTA was approved, and reveal government data showing that instead, they fired U.S. workers and moved operations to Mexico.

    The data also show how post-NAFTA trade and investment trends have contributed to middle-class pay cuts, which in turn contributed to growing income inequality; how since NAFTA, U.S. trade deficit growth with Mexico and Canada has been 45 percent higher than with countries not party to a U.S. Free Trade Agreement, and how U.S. manufacturing exports to Canada and Mexico have grown at less than half the pre-NAFTA rate. …"


    ...

    As Americans have lived with NAFTA’s effects since its Jan. 1, 1994, start, public opinion has shifted dramatically, from a narrow divide during the 1993 NAFTA debate to overwhelming opposition today. A 2012 Angus Reid Public Opinion poll found that 53 percent of Americans believe the U.S. should “do whatever is necessary” to “renegotiate” or “leave” NAFTA, while only 15 percent believe the U.S. should “continue to be a member of NAFTA.” That opposition cuts across party lines, class divisions and education levels, perhaps explaining the growing controversy over the proposed deepening and expansion of the NAFTA model through the TPP.

    ...


    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lori-w...b_4550207.html







    Last edited by KC; 16-11-2016 at 01:28 PM.

  17. #17

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    Without NAFTA, we can charge as much as we like for softwood lumber. We also can sell gasoline at a lower price to Canadians and charge more to the US like we did before NAFTA.

    We also can tax cars and goods coming in from the US and have a good old trade war...
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  18. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gemini View Post
    It seems the a huge chunk of the western world will be wrestling over trade agreements. EU Countries after Brexit will be negotiating trade deals. The U.K. no longer in the E.U. will be negotiating their own trade deals. Now the U.S. under Trump going after new trading agreements. I doubt that negotiations get settled over night.
    By the time these agreements get sorted there will be elections and Trump may well be voted out.
    Yes, there will be a lot of re-negotiating trade agreements. It could very well be a time consuming process that ends up close to where it starts as governments come and go and the political mood ebbs and flows.

    In the short term renegotiating NAFTA will probably not hurt Canada too much. Trump seems to have his guns out more for Mexico and Ontario was also being hurt by the movement of auto production to Mexico. I suppose it also gives Canada the opportunity to bring up its concerns and grievances too, which the US may not be that aware of.

    Brexit is a different scenario. I think either the UK is going to eventually capitulate and give up or the EU will take a fairly hard line. Once the UK decides to exit, the clock starts ticking and the EU does not have to offer them much - it just lets the clock run down as the UK gets more panicked. It seems now like Brexit is a bit about cherry picking and the EU is really not in the mood for that. If Brexit happens, the French and the Germans would be glad to pick up the pieces from London as a financial centre and have less competition as supplier to smaller EU countries.

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