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Thread: And now for the next economic boom

  1. #1
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    Default And now for the next economic boom

    Some interesting stories out lately:

    Energy forecaster Martin King predicts turnaround as supply glut ends

    Less than a week after OPEC lifted the spirits of the oil world with the suggestion of a possible November production cut, there appears to be actual optimism in the air in Alberta.

    At a packed breakfast at the Calgary Petroleum Club, the wood-panelled heart of the oilpatch, veteran forecaster Martin King said the oil glut ended a few months ago and prices will begin their slow climb upward — with the emphasis on slow.


    There were a couple fist pumps at the pronouncement, but some skepticism too. There have been false starts to the oil price recovery and King himself was expecting oil to perform better in 2016 than it has.


    Here is King's case: Oil supply and demand came back into balance in the second quarter of the year and has stayed in balance even as Canadian production came back online after the Fort McMurray fires. Apart from price signals, King said inventories have remained fairly steady, which itself shows that supply does not exceed demand.


    'If OPEC does pull off some sort of cuts, that should help to accelerate the process and you should see a lifting of prices even faster.'
    - Martin King, GMP FirstEnergy
    King pointed out that demand is still strong, and that supply is down from many countries, including the U.S., so far this year.


    "Add all of this together and the market should be tilting its way to undersupply," said King. "This is even before what potentially could be a move by OPEC."
    source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...over-1.3790780


    Kinder Morgan Done Deal?

    As my friend and former Calgary Herald colleague Jim Cunningham commented in this space on Tuesday, “I suspect the premier laid down that condition partly because she is confident the feds will approve the Trans-Mountain pipeline later this year.”

    If that’s right, argued Mr. Cunningham, who nowadays teaches journalism at the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology, it will give her the opportunity to “(a) look strong, and (b) gain credit for helping to push the Liberals to do what she believes must be done. Very shrewd, if you ask me, and a no-fail stance in case Trudeau doesn’t come through.”

    It is worth noting, moreover, that it’s widely believed in the higher reaches of the oil industry that approval of Kinder Morgan is all but a done deal.
    source: http://albertapolitics.ca/2016/10/co...ing-hymn-book/


    Alberta should lead in GDP growth for next 2 years, TD forecasts

    Alberta's economy — in a tailspin since the 2014 crash in oil prices and the Fort McMurray fires earlier this year — will lead the country in GDP growth in 2017 and 2018, Toronto-Dominion Bank predicts.

    "The good news for Alberta is that the worst is in the rear-view mirror," says a new report from TD Economics.


    "With oil production having been restored by July, and reconstruction efforts having already begun, the second half of the year promises to be better."


    The report predicts that oil-related investments will "stabilize" next year with a gradual increase in oil prices to a point above $50 US a barrel.


    Alberta's GDP growth should top two per cent in 2017 and 2018, according to the forecast, which would be the highest of all provinces in both years.
    source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...cast-1.3786058


    Doom and gloom gets old at some point. We may be seeing the seeds of a new boom. We need to manage this one carefully.

    Your thoughts?
    Last edited by AAAAE; 06-10-2016 at 12:22 PM.

  2. #2

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    Yesterday Bloomberg and a few other outlets had this article though:

    Oil Tankers Piling Up in North Sea Show Glut Facing OPEC

    A pile up of tankers waiting in the North Sea suggests a glut is building again in the market where benchmark crude is traded, highlighting the task facing OPEC as it seeks to rein in a global glut.


    So a boom may still be quite some time away.



    I feel in no way entitled to your opinion...

  3. #3

    Default Shale didn't kill of peak oil

    ^also Shale is producing back up at levels before the crash, they learned to produce from Shale much cheaper now. So it can ramp up in a flash if needed, and its a lot less costly than risking billions in another oil sands project, which even with a new pipeline or two will have market access issues.

    Scarce oil / Peak oil, is dead as well (never made sense anyway), prices might rise a bit, but I don't think we will see $100 oil in a very long time:

    In many ways, peak oil resembles Neo-Malthusian warnings of overpopulation. The very model is flawed and the advocates rely heavily on short-term problems (drought raising food prices, the Arab Spring raising oil prices) to support their beliefs in a permanent shift in the global political economy towards scarcity, resource wars and the possible end of civilization. Now, with the re-emergence of Iran, Iraq, and Mexico (and probably soon Venezuela) to the world stage, encouraging new investment and aiming for higher production, the potential for years of production growth in conventional fields, to say nothing of shale oil, is very high. My expectation, outlined in some detail in my book, is that barring massive political disruptions to production, the next decade will see abundant supplies and a continual struggle to maintain prices.
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaell.../#72f3d76a7fa2
    Last edited by moahunter; 06-10-2016 at 12:56 PM.

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    I don't think we're going to jump into another boom right away. Things will slowly improve over the next few years.
    Just my opinion.
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    We're better off without another boom, just steady consistent growth. The boom/bust cycle is not healthy.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    We're better off without another boom, just steady consistent growth. The boom/bust cycle is not healthy.



    You hush your mouth with that nonsense Paul.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Top_Dawg View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    We're better off without another boom, just steady consistent growth. The boom/bust cycle is not healthy.



    You hush your mouth with that nonsense Paul.
    How can very moderate workers get up to making 6figures to blow on truck and matching boat if we don't boom. Fug that.

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    We are seeing a very strong uptick in business and orders. Might be our best month ever for production. The next couple months will tell if it's just a blip or part of a sustained uptrend. They're concerned we might run out of capacity sometime next year. We're paying lots of OT right now to meet targets, but once they decide it's a sustained uptrend, they'll add more shifts and people. This is oilfield production equipment. Canada is ok, but international is good.

    While some companies are still laying off and closing up, we see and feel a sense of optimism here locally.

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  10. #10

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    I'm ready for the next boom.


    /unzips

  11. #11

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    Be nice if we could control how it hits (and leaves again) but....
    Let's make Edmonton better.

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    Canada adds most jobs since 2012; unemployment rate steady
    Alberta added 13,000 positions in September

    source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle32287960/

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    Part time jobs..unemployment is still at 8%.

    Meanwhile..http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle32174789/
    Last edited by H.L.; 07-10-2016 at 11:50 AM.

  14. #14

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    Global growth in oil demand hasn't reversed. New technology provided access to shale reserves but it hasn't dramatically reduced demand as far as I know. It's changed the production dynamics to a more incremental approach. Much like the just in time delivery approach.

    However, major, old, cheap reserves are depleting leaving only higher cost reserves. Wherever it's found, the producers will try to extract the cheapest cost oil first and then work on the higher cost reserves and I don't know where anyone is working on the higher cost and will see lower and lower cost production as they produce more. Shales is figuring out how to reduce costs and so are the oil sands producers but either way, they try to extract their lowest cost / higher profit oil first. That means going forward the cheapest oil available will only be available at a higher cost. That will run into the hurdle of consumers hitting the wall on what they will pay (elasticity) and choosing to switch or use less or use no more.

    With all that said, this video is still very relevant in its various messages - at least watch the first 6 or 7 minutes:


    The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See FULL LECTURE AlBartlett

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZCm2QQZVYk

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    Precision Drilling rehires 1,000 people as oilfield activity improves

    "President and CEO Kevin Neveu said during an earnings call Friday the company was in “the early stages of this rebound”"

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/preci...357/story.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by AAAAE View Post
    Precision Drilling rehires 1,000 people as oilfield activity improves

    "President and CEO Kevin Neveu said during an earnings call Friday the company was in “the early stages of this rebound”"

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/preci...357/story.html
    Smoke and mirrors....read the article....most new hires will be American's due to the increase drilling in the Permian....

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    Why is this smoke and mirrors? It's an indication the oil industry in North America beginning to recover and possibly that low point of this downturn is in the past.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  18. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Why is this smoke and mirrors? It's an indication the oil industry in North America beginning to recover and possibly that low point of this downturn is in the past.
    Agree. It's not smoke and mirrors. Just a qrtrly rpt.

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    Don't the rigs usually ramp up at this time of year regardless? We all know the rig count is down compared to other years but I'm just wondering if this hiring spree is rather normal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Why is this smoke and mirrors? It's an indication the oil industry in North America beginning to recover and possibly that low point of this downturn is in the past.
    Because 99% of these "1000" jobs will be in the US - where drilling is/will be up. I know the company I contract for is actually increasing drilling by 20 rigs in NA next quarter. So yes an overall good sign for Western Canada....common concensus is that oil needs to hit 60 bucks before more capital spending increases in AB. But really wait for the bottom to dry once Fort Hills and NW Upgrader finish.......those 15,000+ jobs are going to vanish in the next 1-2 years....just saying.

  21. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by maclac View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Why is this smoke and mirrors? It's an indication the oil industry in North America beginning to recover and possibly that low point of this downturn is in the past.
    Because 99% of these "1000" jobs will be in the US - where drilling is/will be up. I know the company I contract for is actually increasing drilling by 20 rigs in NA next quarter. So yes an overall good sign for Western Canada....common concensus is that oil needs to hit 60 bucks before more capital spending increases in AB. But really wait for the bottom to dry once Fort Hills and NW Upgrader finish.......those 15,000+ jobs are going to vanish in the next 1-2 years....just saying.
    So your saying that they are trying to fool everyone into thinking the hiring is going to take place in Alberta when in reality they are going to pull a fast one and hire in the US?

    The DUCs in the US sitting ready for completion are going to keep up the supply pressure for a while, so any upward movement in price may not last long. What investor is going to front massive amounts of capital for new oil sands plants unless the economics are very clear. And I'm not saying relatively trivial issues like royalty rates or carbon taxes, etc. Are the deciding factors, but instead simply much higher and sustained oil prices and global demand. That's the big picture that affects the economics of massive capital allocations. Regulatory, tax and royalty issues pale in comparison to $75/bbl moves between $25 and $100/bbl compared to $4-5/bbl impacts on inputs.

    Regarding the eventual loss of 15,000 jobs... They were always temporary construction jobs.

    In Alberta in the early 2000s massive cost overruns were taking place (under the PCs if it matters) and I believe a lot of that was due to higher labour rates. This slowdown should lower the upfront capital costs of future plants. However, we may be smarter in the future recognizing that plant construction can't go on forever and the economic boost they offer is temporary.

    It's no different than the temporary economic boost regions get from chip fab facilities, port facilities, auto plant construction, fertilizer plant construction, etc.
    Last edited by KC; 24-10-2016 at 10:17 AM.

  22. #22

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    The one good takeaway is that while it may be US rigs, they're likely re-hiring a pile of office staff in Calgary.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

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    Kinder Morgan approved yesterday... OPEC cuts production today.

    I knew something was in the air. I would not be surprised to see a significant uptick in the local economy now.

  24. #24

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    The approval of pipelines yesterday was indeed good news but I get the impression there are still some kinks to work out. From the announcement yesterday to the actual start of this pipeline work could be a few months out yet. It's still a plus after so much doom and gloom.
    "The man who does not read has no advantage over the man who cannot read." –Mark Twain

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    wait and see if Alberta's economy will be more stability in 2017 but oil prices will stay below $ 55 dollars for the rest of 2017
    Last edited by jagators63; 30-11-2016 at 04:35 PM.
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    Don't forget about line 3 upgrade. 760,000 barrels a day from about 150,000

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    I predict the Keystone will now be approved by Washington and JT will be working on Quebec to allow the Energy East line. With over two trillion barrels in the ground in Alberta and prices beginning to rise we may be in for another boom soon boys and girls.

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    And we promise not to . . .
    Nisi Dominus Frustra

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    good times are coming....taking this straight off reddit:

    "TIME TO LOAD UP ON TRUCK NUTS"
    "TIME TO SPEC OUT A NEW F150 QUAD CAB"

    "STEAK FOR LUNCH AND DINNER THIS WEEK"

    "DOUBLE THE CHICKEN ON MY SUBWAY TODAY"

  30. #30

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    I am more pessimistic than you guys it seems. But then again I (and my by proxy my firm) no longer have any clients in O+G as it is a market space that is just way to volatile right now as so we closed out our O+G projects and have moved on. Glad the pipelines were approved and I hope Energy East goes forward, but OPEC saying they'll cut prices is different than living up to it, to say of nothing about how the shale industry has trimmed and streamlined and according to stuff I've been reading efficiencies are in the Iran/Iraq cost/barrel... The province needs to diversify. Use the damn oil money to diversify, don't just pump it and sell it and then do some pork project to benefit your buddies in Calgary...

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    I don't think we'll see another boom akin to what happened from the early 2000's up until 2014. That was nearly 15 years straight of boom times, with only a couple small slow downs. With how quickly shale oil can be brought on stream, price spikes won't be able to sustain themselves very long. But it's unquestionably a good thing for Alberta's economy if Line 3, Trans Mountain, and possibly Energy East all get built in the next 3-5 years while oil also ticks back up to the $60-70 range. But I don't think any of it's going to happen overnight, and a lot of the big oil sands companies are going to be very cautious this time around.

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    I have to agree with Marcel 100% on this one. It's a double dose of good news but it's all going to take time for results; Opec cutting production is wonderful and should ward off prices in the basement (below $40.00) however it's not a magic bullet for $70.00+ oil. Should help keep it around $50 though which is a world of difference compared to it hovering around $30 or so.

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    Does anyone really think that Trans Mountain and/or Energy East will get built in 3-5 years?

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    Quote Originally Posted by SP59 View Post
    Does anyone really think that Trans Mountain and/or Energy East will get built in 3-5 years?
    Nope.It's window dressing.KM Will be tied up for years.

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    Trans Mountain is actually already built in a fair number of sections. Kinder Morgan was fairly clever in how they've piece it together over the years. Remember all the pipeline work through Jasper nearly 10 years ago? That was Trans Mountain: https://www.transmountain.com/anchor-loop

    The last part through metro Vancouver will see a lot of protests, yes. But in terms of actual construction time and assuming no significant disruptions, it shouldn't take all that long to complete.

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    ^ LOL! Now don't go bursting hello lady's little bubble, Marcel.
    Nisi Dominus Frustra

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    Trans Mountain is actually already built in a fair number of sections. Kinder Morgan was fairly clever in how they've piece it together over the years. Remember all the pipeline work through Jasper nearly 10 years ago? That was Trans Mountain: https://www.transmountain.com/anchor-loop

    The last part through metro Vancouver will see a lot of protests, yes. But in terms of actual construction time and assuming no significant disruptions, it shouldn't take all that long to complete.
    Oh, right, and that was under PM Harper!!!.LOL.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    Trans Mountain is actually already built in a fair number of sections. Kinder Morgan was fairly clever in how they've piece it together over the years. Remember all the pipeline work through Jasper nearly 10 years ago? That was Trans Mountain: https://www.transmountain.com/anchor-loop

    The last part through metro Vancouver will see a lot of protests, yes. But in terms of actual construction time and assuming no significant disruptions, it shouldn't take all that long to complete.

    They still have 980 km of new pipeline to build. I just wonder why we wouldn't expect the trans-mountain twinning to end up going to the Supreme Court and getting entangled in years of litigation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hello lady View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    Trans Mountain is actually already built in a fair number of sections. Kinder Morgan was fairly clever in how they've piece it together over the years. Remember all the pipeline work through Jasper nearly 10 years ago? That was Trans Mountain: https://www.transmountain.com/anchor-loop

    The last part through metro Vancouver will see a lot of protests, yes. But in terms of actual construction time and assuming no significant disruptions, it shouldn't take all that long to complete.
    Oh, right, and that was under PM Harper!!!.LOL.
    Even I gave Harper credit for some decisions. Why do you refuse to ever approve of Justin Trudeau, even when he makes a decision that you love?

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    Quote Originally Posted by AAAAE View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by hello lady View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    Trans Mountain is actually already built in a fair number of sections. Kinder Morgan was fairly clever in how they've piece it together over the years. Remember all the pipeline work through Jasper nearly 10 years ago? That was Trans Mountain: https://www.transmountain.com/anchor-loop

    The last part through metro Vancouver will see a lot of protests, yes. But in terms of actual construction time and assuming no significant disruptions, it shouldn't take all that long to complete.
    Oh, right, and that was under PM Harper!!!.LOL.
    Even I gave Harper credit for some decisions. Why do you refuse to ever approve of Justin Trudeau, even when he makes a decision that you love?

    When it's being built, and he's out selling it, I will.
    Deal?

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    Alberta Economic Indicators On the Upswing: "Strongest Economy in Canada" says Economist

    ...growing indications Alberta’s economy has turned a corner. The latest signal came from the very same jobs report, which suggested the province created a stunning 20,000 jobs last month, all of them full time.

    “The Alberta economy as a whole is robust; it’s strong, certainly relative to other provinces,” economist Trevor Tombe said. “I’d still say it’s the strongest economy in Canada, except it has a pretty big chunk of workers and businesses that are in a very sharp and deep downtime right now.”

    All economic indicators, including earnings, manufacturing, housing construction, oil production and employment, suggest the province’s recession ended in October, according to Tombe, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Calgary.

    Similarly, Statistics Canada noted in its jobs report Friday that employment in Alberta has been on the upswing since the fall, following a pronounced decline after oil prices crashed leading to widespread layoffs in early 2015.
    (source: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/alber...514/story.html)

    More evidence of what I noticed last year. Things are going well in the Alberta economy again.

    The future Alberta has less natural resources jobs, more finance, real estate, wholesale trade, diversified manufacturing, health and education, and food processing jobs.
    Last edited by AAAAE; 09-04-2017 at 11:19 PM.

  42. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by AAAAE View Post
    Alberta Economic Indicators On the Upswing: "Strongest Economy in Canada" says Economist

    ...growing indications Alberta’s economy has turned a corner. The latest signal came from the very same jobs report, which suggested the province created a stunning 20,000 jobs last month, all of them full time.

    “The Alberta economy as a whole is robust; it’s strong, certainly relative to other provinces,” economist Trevor Tombe said. “I’d still say it’s the strongest economy in Canada, except it has a pretty big chunk of workers and businesses that are in a very sharp and deep downtime right now.”

    All economic indicators, including earnings, manufacturing, housing construction, oil production and employment, suggest the province’s recession ended in October, according to Tombe, an assistant professor of economics at the University of Calgary.

    Similarly, Statistics Canada noted in its jobs report Friday that employment in Alberta has been on the upswing since the fall, following a pronounced decline after oil prices crashed leading to widespread layoffs in early 2015.
    (source: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/alber...514/story.html)

    More evidence of what I noticed last year. Things are going well in the Alberta economy again.

    The future Alberta has less natural resources jobs, more finance, real estate, wholesale trade, diversified manufacturing, health and education, and food processing jobs.
    Hmm - yes but who in the end will be paying for those jobs? (Don't forget that right now some lenders are loaning us a whole lot of money which is going to support a whole lot of jobs.)

    Think of your family and how busy each member would be if each of you paid each a high salary for doing things for each other around the house. Pay mom for her teaching services, you Joey can be paid for his health care services, you can be paid for your food processing/cokking services... everyone in the family pays each other for their services. Life would be wonderful and your household economy would be firing on all cylinders! Your household GDP would be moving up fast. You could lend each other money and help them finance buying your real estate off you and then you could buy it back off them at a high price to really spur your economy. Keep asking more of each other and paying each other more and you could all stop working for outside parties and just work for each other!!! Oh, that loss of outside income? You can make up a whole lot of it just by borrowing from your bank (say remortgaging your house) so you can keep paying your kids great sums for their services. Your household economy will just keep humming right along, right? ...


    A very well written article here:


    So I’m Told Trade Deficits Are Good
    Written by Kurt Williamsen
    11 March 2015

    https://www.thenewamerican.com/econo...icits-are-good





    '
    Last edited by KC; 10-04-2017 at 10:59 AM.

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