Some interesting stories out lately:
Energy forecaster Martin King predicts turnaround as supply glut ends
source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...over-1.3790780Less than a week after OPEC lifted the spirits of the oil world with the suggestion of a possible November production cut, there appears to be actual optimism in the air in Alberta.
At a packed breakfast at the Calgary Petroleum Club, the wood-panelled heart of the oilpatch, veteran forecaster Martin King said the oil glut ended a few months ago and prices will begin their slow climb upward — with the emphasis on slow.
There were a couple fist pumps at the pronouncement, but some skepticism too. There have been false starts to the oil price recovery and King himself was expecting oil to perform better in 2016 than it has.
Here is King's case: Oil supply and demand came back into balance in the second quarter of the year and has stayed in balance even as Canadian production came back online after the Fort McMurray fires. Apart from price signals, King said inventories have remained fairly steady, which itself shows that supply does not exceed demand.
'If OPEC does pull off some sort of cuts, that should help to accelerate the process and you should see a lifting of prices even faster.'
- Martin King, GMP FirstEnergy
King pointed out that demand is still strong, and that supply is down from many countries, including the U.S., so far this year.
"Add all of this together and the market should be tilting its way to undersupply," said King. "This is even before what potentially could be a move by OPEC."
Kinder Morgan Done Deal?
source: http://albertapolitics.ca/2016/10/co...ing-hymn-book/As my friend and former Calgary Herald colleague Jim Cunningham commented in this space on Tuesday, “I suspect the premier laid down that condition partly because she is confident the feds will approve the Trans-Mountain pipeline later this year.”
If that’s right, argued Mr. Cunningham, who nowadays teaches journalism at the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology, it will give her the opportunity to “(a) look strong, and (b) gain credit for helping to push the Liberals to do what she believes must be done. Very shrewd, if you ask me, and a no-fail stance in case Trudeau doesn’t come through.”
It is worth noting, moreover, that it’s widely believed in the higher reaches of the oil industry that approval of Kinder Morgan is all but a done deal.
Alberta should lead in GDP growth for next 2 years, TD forecasts
source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...cast-1.3786058Alberta's economy — in a tailspin since the 2014 crash in oil prices and the Fort McMurray fires earlier this year — will lead the country in GDP growth in 2017 and 2018, Toronto-Dominion Bank predicts.
"The good news for Alberta is that the worst is in the rear-view mirror," says a new report from TD Economics.
"With oil production having been restored by July, and reconstruction efforts having already begun, the second half of the year promises to be better."
The report predicts that oil-related investments will "stabilize" next year with a gradual increase in oil prices to a point above $50 US a barrel.
Alberta's GDP growth should top two per cent in 2017 and 2018, according to the forecast, which would be the highest of all provinces in both years.
Doom and gloom gets old at some point. We may be seeing the seeds of a new boom. We need to manage this one carefully.