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Thread: Brexit - the day the Earth stood still

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    Default Brexit - the day the Earth stood still

    Thoughts, opinions on Britain exiting the EU?
    “You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012

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    Yeah: don't let uninformed idiots decide the fate of your country. There's a reason we elect (presumably) smart people that understand these things.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

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    Sounds like there's one helluva hangover coming...

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    Short term: London loses tens of thousands of finance jobs as the big institutions move their offices. This is already underway.

    Medium term: Scotland leaves. Northern Ireland reunifies with Ireland (this one is dicey).

    Long term: Honestly not sure.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chmilz View Post
    Yeah: don't let uninformed idiots decide the fate of your country. There's a reason we elect (presumably) smart people that understand these things.
    Idiots should have their say as well . And when you let the elected decide things for you that's when tyranny begins. I think the vote was the best thing they could do let the people decide because remember the people are the goverment the ones we elect should only be our voice. These so called smart people run countries around the world and believe me look around they suck. The people of Venezeula allowed the smart people to run their country and now they're eating their pets.
    Last edited by buildthemhigh; 26-06-2016 at 05:12 PM.
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    Simple referenda questions on incredibly complex issues like this make little sense. Most people didn't know what it was they were voting for or against. Add to that that many of the Leave campaigns claims were outright lies and you have a recipe for a decision nobody on either side is happy with. Even Boris seems unhappy. I think he was hoping for a narrow Remain win that would give him the leadership of the Conservatives but not leave him with the mess he's going to get now.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    Great Britian was doing just fine before joining the EU they will be just fine after. You want to join a North American union and have Mexico and Usa dictate to us . I think they did the right thing you're never going to make 100% of the people happy all the time. And goverments left to run amok create the "complex issues and problems " My Family was in politics I know the game quite well. And what you're hearing take with a grain of salt many elite are pushing the oh no sky is falling right now.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Simple referenda questions on incredibly complex issues like this make little sense. Most people didn't know what it was they were voting for or against.
    It's exactly that type of patronizing clap trap that people voted against. The EU makes no sense, I believe in free trade but I don't believe in a union of northern and Southern Europe
    with technocrat elites making the rules, anymore than I would if we had a union with the US, Mexico and South America. The same thing would happen, our money would go to prop up countries where people choose not to work as hard, and to retire sooner. IMO the EU will implode now, nexit, frexit, it's all coming, the resentment in struggling economies in this union has been building for a while. The immigration crisis mismanagement by Merkel just pushed it over the edge sooner than expected, it was inevitable though.
    Last edited by moahunter; 26-06-2016 at 06:34 PM.

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    wait and see in a matter of months to what will happen to EU because 3 or 4 countries have considering about leaving EU.
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    People don't understand that the world economy is already integrated. It's too late to change. Every time you use Amazon to order something from outside the country, every time you buy something from a place like Walmart, every time you buy a tropical fruit, every time you put money into a financial institution, and so on and so on. Unless you make a concerted effort to buy local, chances are your purchase involves some other country in some way. Withdrawing from the EU will only make things more difficult for obtaining goods and services and for the UK to compete internationally, which is not an option these days.
    Last edited by River Valley Green; 26-06-2016 at 08:55 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Simple referenda questions on incredibly complex issues like this make little sense. Most people didn't know what it was they were voting for or against.
    It's exactly that type of patronizing clap trap that people voted against. The EU makes no sense, I believe in free trade but I don't believe in a union of northern and Southern Europe
    with technocrat elites making the rules, anymore than I would if we had a union with the US, Mexico and South America. The same thing would happen, our money would go to prop up countries where people choose not to work as hard, and to retire sooner. IMO the EU will implode now, nexit, frexit, it's all coming, the resentment in struggling economies in this union has been building for a while. The immigration crisis mismanagement by Merkel just pushed it over the edge sooner than expected, it was inevitable though.
    I agtree 100%. I know people that voted to leave and some to remain. I can see both sides, but what the UK had to put up is unbelievable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by River Valley Green View Post
    People don't understand that the world economy is already integrated.
    Not politically though, at least, at a national level. The UK has no more in common with Spain, Portugal, or Greece than we do with Chile. Would you be ok with a political union with Chile? Its interesting, the age split. In 1970's there a referendum on similar issue, and many of the same people who voted against now, voted for then. I can understand young people being more concerned about a vacation job in Spain, than about their tax money going to prop up Spains economy, but as you get a little wiser, you realize its not sustainable. The technocrats have been trying to create a United States of Europe, but that's not what most Europeans want. My relatives in the Netherlands, and friends in Denmark, want a referendum too now, a political union of northern European Germanic nations might have worked (even that is difficult, it would be like us merging with the US), but not one that includes Latin countries that are fundamentally different economically, culturally and politically. Even in Germany there is real fear now, because Germans are tired of carrying the economy of so many basket cases, its going to get worse with the UK, a net donator, gone, they are going to have to pay more, or other countries receive less.
    Last edited by moahunter; 27-06-2016 at 09:14 AM.

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    To go with a local parallel, the Brexit debate kind of reminded me of our own airport controversy, in that the competing sides didn't line up ideologically(in both Edmonton and the UK, you had left-wingers and right-wingers on both sides of the argument), but more demographically, especially as regards toi age. In Edmonton, it tended to be the older people supporting the muni, and the younger who favoured closing it, just as in the UK the older people opposed the EU, and the younger people supported it. Plus, both debates kind of tied into questions of civic identity, and how people see themselves in relation to the "outside".

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    Farage's first speech at the EP, holy ****.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7le5GPJpbE
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    John Oliver on Brexit, love this guy

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEALC1z3QG8
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    ^^ Incredible. "None of you have ever worked a day in your lives, but let's work together".

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    ^ Apart from that one, pretty gratuitous line, the speech didn't strike me as all that outrageous. Pretty much what I'd expect a British euroskeptic to say, given the circumstances.

    I do think he's incorrect in predicting that other countries will follow the UK's lead. Britain has always been the least enthusiastic of the EU members.

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    What I find really interesting, is that within the group of people I've discussed this with, the ones who are most shocked and against Brexit are the same people who were against Nafta.

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    Somewhat interesting. Still early but I hadn't heard some of these rather excessive warnings before. I guess vested interests always have a tendency to embrace hyperbole.

    So what happened to Project Fear? From emergency budget to shares crashing, the dire warnings that have failed to appear EIGHT WEEKS after the historic Brexit vote

    Eight weeks have now passed since the historic vote to leave the EU
    Campaign dominated by slew of blood-curdling warnings about Brexit
    Economic data limited, but signs that many of them have failed to appear
    By JAMES TAPSFIELD, POLITICAL EDITOR FOR MAILONLINE


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...exit-vote.html

    Last edited by KC; 19-08-2016 at 05:27 PM.

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    Daily Mail gonna Daily Mail. The negative consequences won't truly start happening until the terms of exit are negotiated.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    The negative consequences won't truly start happening until the terms of exit are negotiated.
    Same with the positives.

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    I'm in touch with family in the Uk, and they say nothing has changed, the sky isn't falling

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    Brexit divorce trigger must be approved by Parliament, court rules

    Government wants to invoke royal prerogative to leave EU, says it will appeal ruling at the Supreme Court

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/brexit-...ling-1.3834191
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    Quote Originally Posted by hello lady View Post
    I'm in touch with family in the Uk, and they say nothing has changed, the sky isn't falling
    Just the pound.

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    ^which is probably a good thing for their economy. Currency is no longer being inflated by being linked to Germany. Imagine the damage to our economy, if we had taken the US currency when at par? The only thing that has helped keep our oil sector afloat is the 20% currency devaluation that accompanied the oil price drop.
    Last edited by moahunter; 03-11-2016 at 09:01 AM.

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    Presuming it stays down it's going to be great for our trip there in June.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    ^which is probably a good thing for their economy. Currency is no longer being inflated by being linked to Germany. Imagine the damage to our economy, if we had taken the US currency when at par? The only thing that has helped keep our oil sector afloat is the 20% currency devaluation that accompanied the oil price drop.
    As we have seen in Canada in the past 5 years, exports don't magically increase overnight when a currency declines. Structural changes like that take a significant period of time. Overall, the decline of the pound will be bad for the UK's economy and people.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/butto...t-devaluations

    In a recent column, Paul Krugman saw the pound’s fall as a necessary adjustment. But it is worth reading why he thinks that
    In one of the models I laid out in that old paper, the way this worked out was not that all production left the smaller economy, but rather that the smaller economy paid lower wages and therefore made up in competitiveness what it lacked in market access. In effect, it used a weaker currency to make up for its smaller market.
    In Britain’s case, I’d suggest that we think of financial services as the industry in question. Such services are subject to both internal and external economies of scale, which tends to concentrate them in a handful of huge financial centres around the world, one of which is, of course, the City of London. But now we face the prospect of seriously increased transaction costs between Britain and the rest of Europe, which creates an incentive to move those services away from the smaller economy (Britain) and into the larger (Europe). Britain therefore needs a weaker currency to offset this adverse impact.
    Does this make Britain poorer? Yes. It’s not just the efficiency effect of barriers to trade, there’s also a terms-of-trade effect as the real exchange rate depreciates.
    In other words, Brexit is a shock. And Britain needs to react to this shock by lowering its prices. That could be done by getting employers to cut wages in nominal terms but that would be incredibly difficult and would throw up all sorts of other problems (workers’ debts would still be fixed in nominal terms so could not be repaid). Better to let the exchange rate take the strain. The analogy is the euro crisis where, because of the single currency, Greece and Spain couldn’t devalue and had to take a painful hit to the real economy.
    But as Mr Krugman says, Britons are still poorer. Brexit means not just Brexit but higher prices. Since wages are unlikely to rise to compensate, real disposable income will be squeezed; economists are talking of a 2.5-3% inflation rate next year.
    Some will cite the 1992 example, when Britain left the Exchange Rate Mechanism, as showing that a weaker currency can be a good thing. But the great boon of 1992 was that it allowed the Bank of England to cut interest rates from their sky-high 12% levels. There is not such scope now (indeed, Brexiteers complained about the quarter point cut the Bank did make). Nor did the pound seem to be overvalued before the referendum vote either on our Big Mac index or, more scientifically, on the OECD’s measure of purchasing power parity, which suggested $1.43.

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    There is a balance to be found in having a currency value that is good for exports but doesn't damage imports.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    Absolutely. And as the last sentence of that quote indicates, the pound was roughly at that balance prior to the referendum and it cratering.

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    Interesting.

    https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2...ge-brexit.html


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    From what I gather Nicola Sturgeon is not that well liked. She is pushing for another referendum for Scotland to leave the U.K. like the separatist in Quebec. She operates like some feudal landowner with an axe to grind. Scotland alone is not that big of a player to garner world attention. Not that Scots don't matter it's just that they are better off staying with the rest of the U.K. so they can have a louder voice.
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    UK Parliament voted for Brexit 498-114. Article 50 triggered, and they are pulling out of the EU for certain now.



    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38833883




    Good for them - the people of Britain get to elect their own leaders and make their own decisions, instead of having their country's fate decided by a bunch of cronies in Brussels that they didn't vote for.

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    Oh my, the democratically challenged will be running around like their hair is on fire. The Brits voted for this and I don't blame them for wanting to steer their own course. The un-elected kingpins in the EU and PM Angela Merkel seemed to have put Britain on this course because some of their most controversial decisions have taken it's toll on British social programs and the British way of life. Apparently they are tired of bailing out and having to support poorer EU countries and tired of having no control over their borders by being told (forced) who they should be accepting. It seems there are a lot of countries within the EU that are now thinking of casting votes to get out of this union. If are they vote out it will just collapse on it's own.
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    I'm glad they did it this way; a big, irreversible decision like this shouldn't be a single, simple majority vote. A strong majority in Parliament AFTER many of the details have been figured out is a much stronger mandate than a slim referendum victory when it's nothing but a vague idea.

    I suspect it will work out fine for them in the long run although london finance will take a hit. Interesting times, as they say.
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    But most of them said they voted with the intention of respecting the referendum results, so the parliamentary vote seems to be just a formality.
    “You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012

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    I feel like it's just a matter of time before the EU is finished.

    Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen - a strong advocate of French Nationalism and France exiting the EU - is rising in popularity in France fast. Her biggest rival just became embroiled in a corruption controversy as well. Many people are expecting her to win now. The Netherlands is also leaning more towards the "leave" direction with a surge in popularity for Dutch nationalist Geert Wilders.

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