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Thread: Fort McMurray fire

  1. #201

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Gemini View Post
    Anyone have a figure of how many evacuees are at the Expo Centre?.
    Reports this morning said about 900 with 500 residing there. I assume the rest are passing through. They said capacity was about 1500.
    I believe that they are upwards of 3000 now with the Anzac Buses arriving this morning
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  2. #202
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    Fire now reported as 85,000 hectares, up from 10,000 hectares yesterday. I suspect they'll be managing this one for most of the summer.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...nues-1.3568035

    For reference:

    The largest wildfire to ever be ignited in Alberta also burned near Fort McMurray. In 2011, the Richardson Backcountry fire northwest of the city burned more than 700,000 hectares of boreal forest before it was finally extinguished months later.

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  3. #203

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Fire now reported as 85,000 hectares, up from 10,000 hectares yesterday. I suspect they'll be managing this one for most of the summer.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...nues-1.3568035

    For reference:

    The largest wildfire to ever be ignited in Alberta also burned near Fort McMurray. In 2011, the Richardson Backcountry fire northwest of the city burned more than 700,000 hectares of boreal forest before it was finally extinguished months later.

    and prior to it was this one, ignited in BC. Amazing scale to these things - The Chinchaga aka Wisp fire:




    The Chinchaga fire

    With a final size of between 1,400,000 hectares (3,500,000 acres) and 1,700,000 hectares (4,200,000 acres), it is the single largest recorded fire in North American history. The fire was allowed to burn freely, a result of local forest management policy and the lack of settlements in the region.


    ...The ignition point was north of Fort St. John, British Columbia, and the fire burned north-eastward nearly to Keg River, Alberta.[4]


    ...At the time, the Alberta forestry department's policy was to respond only to fires within 15 kilometres (9.3 mi) of settlements and major roads.[8] A request by the fire ranger at Keg River to fight the fire with a ground crew was denied by provincial fire managers.[5]

    According to Tymestra, the Chinchage Firestorm changed the way Alberta responded to forest fires.[3]


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinchaga_fire
    Time for a second edition:

    The Chinchaga Firestorm
    When the Moon and Sun Turned Blue
    Cordy Tymstra and Mike Flannigan
    Publication date: June 2015

    "In 1950, the biggest firestorm documented in North America—one fire alone burned 3,500,000 acres of boreal forest in northern Alberta and British Columbia—created the world’s largest smoke layer in the atmosphere. The smoke travelled half way around the northern hemisphere and made the moon and sun appear blue. The Chinchaga Firestorm is an historical study of the effects of fire on the ecological process. Using technical explanations and archival discoveries, the author shows the beneficial yet destructive effects of many forest fires, including the 2011 devastation of Slave Lake, Alberta. Cordy Tymstra tells the stories of communities and individuals as their lives intersected with the path of the Chinchaga River Fire—stories that demonstrate people’s spirit, resourcefulness, self-sufficiency, and their persistence in the struggle against nature’s immense power. The 1950 event changed the way these fires are fought in Alberta and elsewhere. The Chinchaga Firestorm will appeal to wildland fire scientists, foresters, forest ecologists and policy makers, as well as those who are interested in western Canadian history and ecology."
    PDF
    978-1-77212-015-8
    Pages: 248
    CAD27.99 GBP28.79 USD27.99

    http://www.uap.ualberta.ca/titles/19...haga-firestorm
    and another fire: "The fire was caused by a miner trying to kiss one of the girls in a saloon." see below


    Very Large Fires

    Large wildfires in British Columbia include:

    ...

    The Wisp fire occurred in 1950. The fire burned from north of the Fort St. John area into Alberta along the Chinchaga River. Total area burned was 1,400,000 hectares. The B.C. portion was 90,000 hectares.

    On June 13, 1886, fire destroyed most of Vancouver, which had only been incorporated three months earlier. A clearing fire blazed out of control and in one hour only two of the 400 original buildings were left standing. Due to the fire it was decided that replacement contruction should be of brick stone or cast iron.

    On September 17, 1868, Barkerville was destroyed by fire and 116 homes were destroyed. The fire was caused by a miner trying to kiss one of the girls in a saloon. The ensuing struggle dislodged a stove pipe, setting the canvas ceiling on fire.

    Large wildfires in North America include:



    http://bcwildfire.ca/History/LargeFires.htm

    Last edited by KC; 05-05-2016 at 01:29 PM.

  4. #204
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    Speaking of fires in that area that start in BC and spread to Alberta:

    B.C. wildfire expected to cross into Alberta today

    B.C. firefighters have agreed to continue battling the fire on the Alberta side as well, so Alberta crews can concentrate on the Fort McMurray blaze.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  5. #205

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    Quote Originally Posted by OffWhyte View Post
    The fire approaching the airport has now reached Old Airport Road. Where is that?

    https://t.co/PcxFJyjjFa


    https://postmediaedmontonjournal2.fi...y=55&strip=all

    This might give you an idea where it is. Its in the south end of the town.
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    Home safe and sound yesterday evening. Crazy scene up there.

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    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  8. #208

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    ^wow

    In the midst of entitled twitter twits saying insane things, people who truly understand what it is like to lose it all...shine through!!!
    Onward and upward

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    As our Edmonton mayor said, he is pleased with all Edmontonians, as am I. Plus everyone helping between here and Fort Mac.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RichardS View Post
    ^wow

    In the midst of entitled twitter twits saying insane things, people who truly understand what it is like to lose it all...shine through!!!
    While frustrating I think the number of dumbass tweets (from any part of the political spectrum) has been blessedly few. Sometimes it seems like more as the same few people keep mouthing off. The vast majority of the #ymmfire feed is information and messages of support. Or brilliant stuff like this:


    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  11. #211

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    That's awesome!!!!!!!!!
    Onward and upward

  12. #212

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    This insurance focused article (below) just talks about insurable losses. (Unfortunately, but naturally, they are only concerned about the business/investment related costs.) Intact apparently long ago estimated a potential of 9 based on the Slave Lake disaster and that number is parotted below. Slave Lake was $750 "insurable" but a lot more in total financial costs that they don't care about. I think it was around 1B+ and that would still exclude all the uninsured, non-public costs.

    The stuff they don't care about is the rebuilding by the public sector plus all the ripple effect costs of no longer, politically, being able to kick the 'risk to life and limb' can down the road in every other at risk community. e.g. post southern Alberta flooding mitigation. Or has that all been deferred by now? (I suspect that the Slave Lake experience didn't really hit in a way (as in didn't hit right community or electorate or something) to force politicians' hands like the flooding did).



    BMO analyst Tom MacKinnon said that if one assumes the ultimate damage is limited to somewhere between a quarter and a half of all buildings being destroyed, the price tag to rebuild would range from $2.6 billion to $4.7 billion, based on the lessons of 2011.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fort...cost-1.3568113
    Alberta pledges $600M for flood mitigation projects
    3-year commitment includes ...
    CBC News Posted: Apr 29, 2014

    “Moving forward with the projects and funding announced today is an important step toward reducing the impact of future floods on Alberta’s people, infrastructure, economy and environment,” said Environment and Sustainable Resource Development Minister Robin Campbell.
    ...
    A one-day flood symposium was also held in Calgary Tuesday to discuss what the province has done and will do to prevent future floods.


    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgar...ects-1.2625794

    Catastrophic Slave Lake wildfire served as ‘wake-up call’ for Alberta
    JANA G. PRUDEN AND ALLAN MAKI, The Globe and Mail
    May 04, 2016

    A report released after the Slave Lake fire of May, 2011, made 21 recommendations geared at preventing, mitigating and responding to similar wildfires in the future. Dr. Flannigan said he believes the Alberta government has been sincere in its efforts to institute the recommendations in the Flat Top Complex wildfire report, but he declined to comment on whether enough has been done to address the risk of catastrophic wildfire in the five years since the Slave Lake blaze.

    “Things are raw right now,” he said.

    One of the recommendations in the report was to...

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle29878341/
    Alberta communities can access $800,000 in funding for wildfire protection projects
    September 22, 2015 by Canadian Underwriter

    Communities in Alberta will have access to $800,000 in funding this fiscal year for wildfire protection projects through the FireSmart Community Grant Program, Alberta Agriculture and Forestry announced last week.

    Municipalities, municipal districts, counties, Métis Settlements and registered non-profit societies located within the Forest Protection Area of Alberta are eligible to apply for FireSmart grants to a maximum of $100,000 per community, the ministry said in a recent statement. Among other communities, the area covers Rainbow Lake, High Level, Fort McMurray, Peace River, Slave Lake, Lac La Biche, Swan Lakes, Whitecourt, Edson, Hinton, Rocky Mountain House, Canmore and Blairmore.

    The funding can be used to support fire preparedness planning, public education, and on-the-ground fire mitigation projects, like creating buffers between buildings and forest vegetation. Over the past 10 years, the FireSmart Community Program has provided approximately $5.8 million to 129 different communities in Alberta.

    “This year’s busy wildfire season was a strong reminder of the importance of proactive emergency planning and risk reduction strategies,” Alberta’s Minister of Agriculture and Forestry, Oneil Carlier, said in the statement.

    Applications are being accepted until Oct. 23.
    ...

    http://www.canadianunderwriter.ca/in...ts-1003813470/


    Maybe it's time to re-priortize lotteries based payouts. As in cut the payouts to ticket buyers a bit. I think we could survive fewer millionaires - but some of our societal problems can be real killers.

    Say, let's match the percent given to the winner with the percent that actually makes it to the charities.


    These revenues total more than $1.5 billion each year, and are used to support thousands of volunteer, public and community-based initiatives annually.

    http://albertalotteryfund.ca/aboutthealf/default.asp

    http://albertalotteryfund.ca/aboutth...emoneygoes.asp

    "The remaining 33.1 percent..."


    A: Of every dollar spent on tickets, approximately 52.1 percent goes back to players in the form of prizes. Lottery retail commissions are approximately 7.0 percent of sales. Western Canada Lottery Corporation operating expenses are approximately 6.8 percent of sales with ticket printing accounting for an additional 1.0 percent. The remaining 33.1 percent is revenue returned to WCLC's members - the governments of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba and associate members Yukon Territory, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut.

    http://www.wclc.com/faq-3.htm


    ~
    Last edited by KC; 05-05-2016 at 04:03 PM.

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    Winspear and Edmonton Symphony are offering 650 free tickets to evacuees for a Friday morning concert:

    The @winspearcentre & @edmsymphony are offering 650 free tickets to evacuee families at 10:30am following our breakfast. #ymmfire #ymmhelps
    https://twitter.com/EEDC/status/728341878765051904

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  14. #214

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kitlope View Post
    Home safe and sound yesterday evening. Crazy scene up there.
    Good on ya. Now for the rest of the evacuees who have been Keeping Calm and Carrying On. Hope you can all get your lives back in order ASAP. We are all routing for you.
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  15. #215

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by RichardS View Post
    ^wow

    In the midst of entitled twitter twits saying insane things, people who truly understand what it is like to lose it all...shine through!!!
    While frustrating I think the number of dumbass tweets (from any part of the political spectrum) has been blessedly few. Sometimes it seems like more as the same few people keep mouthing off. The vast majority of the #ymmfire feed is information and messages of support. Or brilliant stuff like this:

    Very good marketing ploy to get Red Cross donations.

    "The man who does not read has no advantage over the man who cannot read." –Mark Twain

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    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChuhTT4WsAEWP7g.jpg

    ADMIN EDIT

    Image removed due to profanity and unfounded accusations.
    Last edited by Admin; 06-05-2016 at 08:04 AM. Reason: removing profane image
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  17. #217

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    ^Where is the source for this?.

    Before we all go headlong into the climate change conversation (I think it was discussed a few threads up) there are other factors coming into play. The weather has been unpredictable since man started walking upright (women started upright but guys had to catch up). Unless weather records were taking 400 million + years ago for every area of the planet maybe we should leave climate change out of the Ft. Mc debate. Nobody knows if weather cycles go in 10,000 year patterns or 100,000 year patterns.
    Anyway, I read somewhere just very recently that Brian Jean lost two houses up there (not sure of the source). The home he lived in since he was 4 (which he rented out) and the home he bought when he got married. Now the Feel the Burn Jackass, well he's an ***** if he tweeted that. At least Notley is around and actively doing something. Redford would have took a government jet along with famiy to a luxury lodge in Jasper to wait it out.
    Last edited by Gemini; 05-05-2016 at 11:04 PM.
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  18. #218

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    Mentions here about Jean's two homes:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...home-1.3565529
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  19. #219

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    I think that the fear mongering is if Brian Jean actually stated an 80% cut.

    I did not hear that in this in the video

    Here are the facts

    With dry conditions and dozens of blazes already burning across Alberta, Premier Rachel Notley said Tuesday her government’s decision to slash the wildfire budget by $15 million this year won’t impact the province’s firefighting efforts.

    The province was criticized this week after its budget showed cuts to tanker contracts by $5.1 million and its base wildfire management budget by $9.6 million, to about $100 million.

    Notley chalked the matter up to simple budgetary practices that has the province earmark base funding, with the understanding firefighting efforts are covered in the province’s emergency budget.

    “In no way, shape or form are we suggesting that we wouldn’t put every bit of resources that are required to ensure that fires are appropriately fought as they arise,” Notley told reporters at a Red Deer news conference. “This is the way these kinds of emergent and non-predictable costs are typically budgeted.”

    Last year, the province spent $375 million fighting wildfires; none of that money was earmarked in the budget, but instead came directly from emergency funding.

    But the tanker budget cut this year has meant some companies that have long provided firefighting services to the province have seen their contracts reduced from 123 days to 93 days.
    More http://edmontonjournal.com/news/poli...ildfire-budget

    Do the math, do you see an 80% cut?

    envaneo, can you provide a source to your post?
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    Things to note, there is no budget for fighting wildfires. Money is spent as needed.

    The money that was cut was from the base program and from long term contracts. It was also nowhere near 80%. My understanding was it was more like 10%.

    A third of the cut solely affected how long into the summer we had tankers reserved for and would have no bearing on the current fire.

    I don't know how much the cut to the base budget would affect things but given how recently the budget came down I can't see how it would have any bearing on the Fort McMurray fire.

    While Tom Moffat was a NDP candidate in 2012 he was not a candidate under Notley in 2015. All sitting MLAs, including Brian Jean, have dropped the partisan BS and are doing their jobs during the crisis.

    In short meme's like this are propagated by people who don't give a rat's *** about this crisis beyond it's political utility. This is illustrated by the level of outright lies contained in it.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    The above post was not meant to be political on my part. When I read this, I thought. Holy crap. Is this for real? Maybe the guys at C2E can clarify what I'm seeing here because it makes no sense to me.

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=3&theater

    Apologies for not posting the link earlier, I was in a rush.
    Last edited by envaneo; 06-05-2016 at 02:24 AM.
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  22. #222

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    Maybe fact check from a reliable source first.

    First off, have you ever seen a government cut a major budget item by 80% ever? This does not pass the smell test.

    You have some wacko fringe people with axes to grind who will state that they saw Notley herself playing with matches.
    Last edited by Edmonton PRT; 06-05-2016 at 05:21 AM.
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  23. #223
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  24. #224
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    Sounds like 1500 vehicles are now moving south from north of Fort McMurray.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...city-1.3569517
    Last edited by Paul Turnbull; 06-05-2016 at 07:26 AM.

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    This would have been an entertaining flight:



    https://www.facebook.com/wanda.murra...53469150945966

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    Oh that's wonderful to see the pets are safe, I bet the owners were happy...

  28. #228
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    Nice tool for looking at the historical data on wildfires:

    Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: Interactive map

    Earlier in the thread the effect of El Nino was mentioned.

    This year:



    Last year:


    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  29. #229
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    Many of you question moderation here. This thread brings up a good example of the many judgment calls moderators need to make.

    An image posted by envaneo, while not his/her image, contained gross misinformation, political anger, and profanity. This image was posted to make a point, I understand that.

    HOWEVER

    The profanity is not tolerated.

    The information presented politicizes this conversation, which is solely about the fire, the efforts to contain it, the evacuations, the human, plant, and animal toll, the economic toll, and the rebuilding.

    I understand that people have their political views. I know this event has galvanized mine. That said, I will not tolerate this thread being overrun with politics. There are other threads for that. This event is so destructive on so many layers, we need the discourse here to be civil.

    Hence, I made the decision to remove the picture.

    Please keep this thread civil.
    Ow

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    I was a bit annoyed when I heard about Notley's cuts to the firefighting budget. But this is very similar to snow removal budgets. You hope for the best, but you really have no clue what weather will happen further than 10 days out. The best Ceci could do was budget and hope.

    Canada and the USA have shared firefighting resources on numerous occasions, this helps even out the vastly different year to year needs, right now most of Western Canada needs or will need firefighters. In the fall we might get a lot of rain and California might need ours. This helps level out our resources and helps budgeting not only in Alberta but in all areas.

    But these are more longer term issues, Fort McMurray and it's residents have many short term immediate and mid term needs. Some of the residents will not have homes to go back to, some their workplace has been destroyed, be generous and help out.

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    Not official but nice overview with lots of maps:

    Fort McMurray Damaged Structures Assessment based on May 5th Satellite Images

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  32. #232

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    https://youtu.be/yThu2qcRyJY

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  33. #233

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    Quote Originally Posted by sundance View Post
    I was a bit annoyed when I heard about Notley's cuts to the firefighting budget. But this is very similar to snow removal budgets. You hope for the best, but you really have no clue what weather will happen further than 10 days out. The best Ceci could do was budget and hope.

    Canada and the USA have shared firefighting resources on numerous occasions, this helps even out the vastly different year to year needs, right now most of Western Canada needs or will need firefighters. In the fall we might get a lot of rain and California might need ours. This helps level out our resources and helps budgeting not only in Alberta but in all areas.

    But these are more longer term issues, Fort McMurray and it's residents have many short term immediate and mid term 'needs'. Some of the residents will not have homes to go back to, some their workplace has been destroyed, be generous and help out.
    In the late 1990s the softwood lumber tax fed the Environmental Protection and Engancement Fund. That money was being used for firefighting, airstrips, tankers, etc. Treasury tried to swoop in and grab a bunch of the money because it was just sitting there.

    ...there's a long term ripple effect to a lot of these old decisions to cut infrastructure, and cut prevention funding to meet short term needs. Even when strong evidence of future risks is presented, the bean counters always focus on today, not tomorrow.
    Last edited by KC; 06-05-2016 at 09:39 AM.

  34. #234

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    I think its going too far to blame Notley re the firefighting cuts, I'm not even sure if it really was cut or not, or just a funding bucket juggling exercise. I think NDP and the Alberta government in general has responded very well to this crisis, to their credit.

  35. #235

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    Stop trying to politicize this tragedy!!

    Ffs

    (not directed at anyone in particular... just a general message... so sick of people blaming people/parties for **** like this)

  36. #236

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    Channel surfing this morning and a few things mentioned that stuck. One, Premier Notley is setting up meeting very soon to get temporary accommodation set up for people from the Ft. McMurray area. Now, I got the impression that this accommodation was going to be near Ft. Mc so people could be back in their home town to look after their affairs and get back to work. Another channel had a fire fighter on that said this fire will not be put out by firefighters on the ground or water bombers. It's going to take rain to get it under control. Oh, and 4 babies born at Edmonton Misericordia Hospital from Ft. McMurray moms.
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    Employment opportunities starting to be listed.

    https://www.facebook.com/leanne.bour...56978066760096

    Are you looking to give back to the Fort McMurray during the fire effort to rebuild the community? Are you willing to work 2 weeks in and 1 week out? Drake International, Edmonton is gearing up to work with a national restoration company that will be a part of the Fort McMurray clean-up. We are currently looking for 150 – 200 general laborers to help with disaster clean up including sweeping, shoveling and hosing down burnt structures. This temporary opportunity will be 14 days in and 7 days out for the foreseeable future, 10 – 12 hours days during your 14 days in with regular wages for the first 44 hours in the week and overtime paid for any hours above and beyond. Drake will provide all protective gear except steel toed boots. Transportation to and from, Edmonton to Fort McMurray will also be provided by Drake as well as the cost of accommodations and 4 meals per day. Pay will be between $15 and $16 per hour commensurate with experience. If you want to be a part of the long work ahead to re-build Fort McMurray, please apply immediately with your resume, to [email protected]

    Introduce your friends to Drake and we will pay you $50* if we place your friend in any temporary assignment and they work 80 hours.

    * Please see your local branch for details. Referral must be made via a Drake referral form once you have been interviewed and registered with Drake.

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  38. #238

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    As terrible as this tragedy is, especially right now, there may be a silver lining. Basically, its going to result in a massive amount of insurance money (a lot of it in places like the Caymans where many reinsurers are), flowing into Alberta for the rebuild, from outside the province. As soon as things settle in FT Mac, all those home builders in Edmonton and Calgary struggling right now with little growth have a place to set up a sales office.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KenL2 View Post
    https://youtu.be/yThu2qcRyJY

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    Well said Rex, thanks.

  40. #240

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    Top_Dawg has to say that the scarecrow is looking more haggard by the day.

  42. #242

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    Notley announces payments to 80,000 people immediately - $1250 per adult, $500 per dependent by Wednesday of next week. $100m total.
    www.decl.org

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    Grabbed these from the video:



    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  44. #244

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    When I see heart warming photos and stories here and elsewhere, amidst a devastating tragedy, I just can't keep my tears back anymore.....no lives lost, pets onboard flights to safety, and babies being born....This is not a time to point fingers. We shouldn't lose the perspective of what matters...Keep up the good work Alberta...

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    Quote Originally Posted by FamilyMan View Post
    When I see heart warming photos and stories here and elsewhere, amidst a devastating tragedy, I just can't keep my tears back anymore.....no lives lost, pets onboard flights to safety, and babies being born....This is not a time to point fingers. We shouldn't lose the perspective of what matters...Keep up the good work Alberta...
    Sadly two lives were lost during the evacuation, however given the severity of the situation it's amazing that's all there were.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...tion-1.3569518

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  46. #246

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    I agree. The speed, calmness and kindly interaction between people has been amazing and something we can be proud of. The degree of safety training that workers receive benefits everyone. The unfortunate accident has been a common occurrence on the highways in the area and is not beyond the norms especially with the amount of traffic and sleeplessness of the drivers, simply astounding. The raging fires even were overhead and people remained extremely calm.

    I hope that we will have a full accounting of everyone and even if you have found a place to live, contact the proper people to acknowledge that you got out so that we can account for any missing people. Otherwise they will have to search in the rubble of homes and business to ensure nobody was lost.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    Maybe fact check from a reliable source first.

    First off, have you ever seen a government cut a major budget item by 80% ever? This does not pass the smell test.

    You have some wacko fringe people with axes to grind who will state that they saw Notley herself playing with matches.
    That's why I posted this here to get some feedback, anyway back to the fire.
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

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    Fort McMurray Fire Evacuation Support

    Edmonton, AB, May 5, 2016 – In support of the Edmonton Chamber of Commerce initiative to support the business community which has also been displaced by the devastating fires this week in Fort McMurray, Qualico Commercial is pleased to offer, free of rent or any other charges, any vacant office space in our Edmonton portfolio for businesses displaced by the fires. These spaces vary from 800 s.f. suites to full floor spaces as large as 10,000 s.f.

    Qualico Commercial will also waive all fees for the use of any of the four conference rooms in EPCOR Tower which have full video conferencing capacity for groups from 6 to 60.

    For more information, including floor plans for specific requirements, please contact Ken Cantor, Vice President Commercial Development at (780)424-7474 or at [email protected].

    At its heart, Qualico is a community minded organization, and we are committed to assisting fellow Albertans in need.

    -30-

    http://bit.ly/24BPLCu
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    From the latest update:

    Evacuation

    An estimated 8,400 residents were evacuated from camps north of Fort McMurray yesterday by flights organized by energy companies, AER and DND, executed by the wonderful people who work at WestJet, Artic Air, DND and other carriers. Thank you so much, to everyone involved in that effort.

    At this time traffic is moving south on Highway 63 from the traffic control point at the Parsons Creek Interchange through Fort McMurray. There is a long queue of vehicles waiting to travel south. Please be patient. The wildfire is still unpredictable and the evacuation needs to be coordinated and safe. Safety of travel routes is the primary consideration. The time-frame depends on many factors, including preparedness of all evacuees and ensuring safety through the entire evacuation process. We will be monitoring progress throughout the day. RCMP is controlling intersections through the city, and motorists will be required to follow safe evacuation routes determined by RCMP.

    Approx. 50,000 litres of fuel are available at an emergency fueling station approx. 30 km north of Ft. Mac on the southbound ramp of the Suncor Voyageur Interchange. Motorists are reminded that quantities are limited, and will be restricted to those travellers in need in order to get them to the nearest fuel centre.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Medwards View Post
    Stop trying to politicize this tragedy!!

    Ffs

    (not directed at anyone in particular... just a general message... so sick of people blaming people/parties for **** like this)
    Sorry but this was a budgeted cut, by nature it IS political.
    http://edmontonjournal.com/news/poli...ildfire-budget

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    Firebreak around Fort McMurray wouldn't have saved city, official says


    "We responded to all 21 recommendations," said Morrison, senior wildfire manager for Alberta. "Really, our experiences in Slave Lake taught us many things and helped us respond very rapidly and effectively here."

    But Morrison stressed that no amount of preparedness and no protection measures would have saved Fort McMurray from the wildfire that destroyed more than 1,600 homes and buildings and burned more than 101,000 hectares by early Friday afternoon.
    It sounds like it simply grew to fast for responders to contain.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    Quote Originally Posted by sundance View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Medwards View Post
    Stop trying to politicize this tragedy!!

    Ffs

    (not directed at anyone in particular... just a general message... so sick of people blaming people/parties for **** like this)
    Sorry but this was a budgeted cut, by nature it IS political.
    http://edmontonjournal.com/news/poli...ildfire-budget
    sorry, even if was political, it's no more political than this quote from that same article:

    "Notley chalked the matter up to simple budgetary practices that has the province earmark base funding, with the understanding firefighting efforts are covered in the province’s emergency budget.

    "“In no way, shape or form are we suggesting that we wouldn’t put every bit of resources that are required to ensure that fires are appropriately fought as they arise,” Notley told reporters at a Red Deer news conference. “This is the way these kinds of emergent and non-predictable costs are typically budgeted.”"

    so unless you want to claim that any of the province's responses in the last week have been less than everything possible under the circumstances due to an unwillingness to foot the bill at the end of the day, take it out of this thread and talk partisan politics somewhere else.
    "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Firebreak around Fort McMurray wouldn't have saved city, official says


    "We responded to all 21 recommendations," said Morrison, senior wildfire manager for Alberta. "Really, our experiences in Slave Lake taught us many things and helped us respond very rapidly and effectively here."

    But Morrison stressed that no amount of preparedness and no protection measures would have saved Fort McMurray from the wildfire that destroyed more than 1,600 homes and buildings and burned more than 101,000 hectares by early Friday afternoon.
    It sounds like it simply grew to fast for responders to contain.
    It also hopped a pretty considerable river swath. There was reference to that being a greater hop than the buffer areas suggested. Also the river being water which one would think would have some more of a buffer effect but didn't.

    Like most of these fires it was able to spread considerable distances in the wind in these tinder dry conditions. In fact one of the main jobs, and I think some people were conscripted to do this on site and/or volunteered, was to keep stomping out fires all over that wanted to start just as burning embers landed on the ground and fairly immediately caught wherever they landed. That's how dry it is. A burning pine branch that is mostly just ash and ember can actually travel a fair distance in the wind. Especially ones that have their start in the highest tree tops and on hills.

    Now we need to consider that Ft Mc. has been an explosive boom town with subdivisions growing at a rapid rate and development stretching. This is no small town. The buffer area would be pretty considerable in circumference and massive undertaking and would probably do little under these conditions.
    "if god exists and he allowed that to happen, then its better that he doesn't exist"

  54. #254

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    Quote Originally Posted by sundance View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Medwards View Post
    Stop trying to politicize this tragedy!!

    Ffs

    (not directed at anyone in particular... just a general message... so sick of people blaming people/parties for **** like this)
    Sorry but this was a budgeted cut, by nature it IS political.
    http://edmontonjournal.com/news/poli...ildfire-budget
    It's very much like Katrina, the southern Alberta floods, probably many ice storms, etc. where past decisions made by people for any number of reasons (cost, politics, competing near term priorities, etc), can avoid catastrophe or lead to it. Personally, I think they got extremely lucky, near winning ticket lucky.

    Notley's 'paper ' cuts likely mean nothing in this case. However, the fact that there weren't thousands upon thousands of casualties also means that the infrastructure and evac plans worked in this situation. Had this been a Skave Lake style fire, I really wonder what the outcome would have been. Evacuation orders would certainly have come out earlier but whether that would have done the trick it's hard to say. (You really have to wonder, when you hear if people spending hours trapped in gridlock - within the city limits!)

    Here's a community where it's been long known that there is basically only two ways out, and a partial solution is a 15k stretch of connector road but that apparently has never been prioritized. Five years ago there was a major heads up to the threat of fast moving wildfires. Now this is a second heads up.



    When pure luck and success are deemed one and the same:

    "deemed them ultimately successful because no one died."

    By: Chris Purdy The Canadian Press, May 14 2013

    "We knew what we needed to improve upon," Griffiths said following a disaster conference in Banff, where planning officials from North America discussed lessons learned from such disasters as the Slave Lake fires and Hurricane Katrina.

    "A lot of people recognize what we bring to the table and they're coming to learn from us."
    Griffiths said there is no perfect response to a disaster. And, in the case of Slave Lake, officials were met with what is believed to be the largest, fastest, most destructive fire in the province's history.

    High winds drove the fires into town, ...

    The review found that the evacuation and the disaster response were not ideal, but deemed them ultimately successful because no one died.

    "No plans were available at local or provincial levels to accommodate the need to evacuate so many residents," said the report. "Most of those involved were not well-prepared or trained for the possibility of a large evacuation, from individual residents to governments to first responders.

    "In particular, the speed of the wildfires made it difficult to warn residents or issue an evacuation order in a timely fashion." ...

    Some people .., were forced to turn around because some roads were closed.

    http://www.metronews.ca/news/calgary...ake-fires.html

    Crisis & Recovery Notifying Communities | Lesser Slave River

    "...wind shift caused Fire 65 to breach the boundaries of the Town of Slave Lake and threaten more densely populated areas. All MD residents had to scramble to make a second evacuation along with town residents.
    With a new fire beginning to the north, thick black smoke blocking out the sun and many unknowns, the MD ordered the evacuation of Old Town, Devonshire and Marten Beach. At this point, all routes out of the area were blocked by fire. Evacuees gathered at the south side of Highway 2 and waited for what was to come. Eventually, the fire was fought back enough to reopen Highway 2; first west, then east. Trapped residents made a long, slow exit through dark orange haze, out of danger and into the unknown.


    http://www.md124.ca/content/crisis-r...ng-communities
    Last edited by KC; 06-05-2016 at 02:43 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Here's a community where it's been long known that there is basically only two ways out, and a partial solution is a 15k stretch of connector road but that apparently has never been prioritized. Five years ago there was a major heads up to the threat of fast moving wildfires. Now this is a second heads up.
    After watching the videos of towering flames on both sides of the road, engine choking smoke and embers showering down on cars this isn't just a wake up call, it's a punch in the gut.

    People could have died not just from flames but oxygen deprivation if they were trapped. So fortunate that there haven't been any fatalities or injuries. I get shivers every time I see the videos.
    Did my dog just fall into a pothole???

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    Seems like the big difference between Slave Lake and Fort McMurray is that the Slave Lake fire beelined for the town and people were actually evacuating before an order was given. The Fort McMurray fire was big enough and close enough that evac order was given for some neighbourhoods Sunday night but lifted the next day when the fire started moving southwest. It wasn't until Tuesday afternoon the fire changed direction and then doubled in size in the space of a couple of hours. I suspect people had relaxed thinking the fire was moving away so where a bit off guard when the fire came roaring into town.

    It's a testament to the people of Fort McMurray and the emergency responders there that they were able to get everybody out given how fast the fire was moving.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  57. #257

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Seems like the big difference between Slave Lake and Fort McMurray is that the Slave Lake fire beelined for the town and people were actually evacuating before an order was given. The Fort McMurray fire was big enough and close enough that evac order was given for some neighbourhoods Sunday night but lifted the next day when the fire started moving southwest. It wasn't until Tuesday afternoon the fire changed direction and then doubled in size in the space of a couple of hours. I suspect people had relaxed thinking the fire was moving away so where a bit off guard when the fire came roaring into town.

    It's a testament to the people of Fort McMurray and the emergency responders there that they were able to get everybody out given how fast the fire was moving.
    I'm no weather forecaster so I have no idea how much notice can be obtained for different fires but I don't believe this was a very fast wind blown fire. Was it? It also hit mid day so they had decent visibility.

    Now with the hypotheticals. Since its been stated that in windy conditions embers can travel many kilometres, can easily jump a highway, I could imagine a situation in a densely forested town, a fire surrounding people on a number of sides in a community or while evacuating via a highway, burning up cars and blocking any exit. From there, who knows what could happen in a populated situation. That would be worse case, very rare in my imagination.

    However, in watching the videos of Ft McMurray it seems that there could have been a few places where roads could have been blocked by fires igniting cars stuck in gridlock. I have no idea what could be done to avoid any risk like that if it were even present - but my sense is that they were lucky that some winds didn't suddenly come up and sweep the fire right over the city.


    Forest fires can spread INSANELY quick
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEAtSj5LM34
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvPa_yEEd4E - in the NWT

    Cars stuck in gridlock:
    Escape from Cajon Pass (brushfire of July 17, 2015)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6I8hwn3Qax8
    Last edited by KC; 06-05-2016 at 03:25 PM.

  58. #258

    Default Nature is not to blame

    The size and ferocity of Alberta wildfires have been increasing in recent years, but the climate has not changed nearly as much as the trees. This is acknowledged in the official report on the twin 2011 fires that did what was then unprecedented damage to the Alberta town of Slave Lake. “Before major wildfire suppression programs, boreal forests historically burned on an average cycle ranging from 50 to 200 years as a result of lightning and human-caused wildfires,” wrote the Flat Top Complex Wildfire Review Committee. “Wildfire suppression has significantly reduced the area burned in Alberta’s boreal forest.

    “However, due to reduced wildfire activity, forests of Alberta are aging, which ultimately changes ecosystems and is beginning to increase the risk of large and potentially costly catastrophic wildfires.” Now there’s a sentence that jumps out at you. A chart below these words in the report depicts the changing Alberta “forest inventory.” As recently as 1971, more than half of Alberta’s boreal forest by area was classified as regenerating or young, and a third was “immature.” By 2011 more than 40 per cent had become “mature” and more than 20 per cent “overmature,” a category all but absent from earlier measurements of the inventory.
    http://news.nationalpost.com/full-co...re-that-simple

    Stunning photo, near Anzac...


  59. #259

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    Hey, sounds familiar - maybe they are picking up some other material off of our c2e links and references.

    NYT had amazing photos yesterday.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Seems like the big difference between Slave Lake and Fort McMurray is that the Slave Lake fire beelined for the town and people were actually evacuating before an order was given. The Fort McMurray fire was big enough and close enough that evac order was given for some neighbourhoods Sunday night but lifted the next day when the fire started moving southwest. It wasn't until Tuesday afternoon the fire changed direction and then doubled in size in the space of a couple of hours. I suspect people had relaxed thinking the fire was moving away so where a bit off guard when the fire came roaring into town.

    It's a testament to the people of Fort McMurray and the emergency responders there that they were able to get everybody out given how fast the fire was moving.
    I'm no weather forecaster so I have no idea how much notice can be obtained for different fires but I don't believe this was a very fast wind blown fire. Was it? It also hit mid day so they had decent visibility.

    Now with the hypotheticals. Since its been stated that in windy conditions embers can travel many kilometres, can easily jump a highway, I could imagine a situation in a densely forested town, a fire surrounding people on a number of sides in a community or while evacuating via a highway, burning up cars and blocking any exit. From there, who knows what could happen in a populated situation. That would be worse case, very rare in my imagination.

    However, in watching the videos of Ft McMurray it seems that there could have been a few places where roads could have been blocked by fires igniting cars stuck in gridlock. I have no idea what could be done to avoid any risk like that if it were even present - but my sense is that they were lucky that some winds didn't suddenly come up and sweep the fire right over the city.


    Forest fires can spread INSANELY quick
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEAtSj5LM34
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvPa_yEEd4E - in the NWT

    Cars stuck in gridlock:
    Escape from Cajon Pass (brushfire of July 17, 2015)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6I8hwn3Qax8
    While it did not have the 100km/h winds of the Slave Lake fire my understanding is that Tuesday afternoon wind speed went up into the 40km/h range and shifted direction towards the city. That combined with the how dry the forest was led to the fire covering several km in a couple of hours.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    The province has declared a province wide ban recreational vehicles because of dry conditions.

    Larivee said the ban applies only to recreational use on public land and provincial parks, including designated off-highway vehicle trails.

    The ban will not apply to agricultural, commercial or industrial use, Larivee said. Nor will it apply to Indigenous people using off-highway vehicles for farming, business operations or traditional use.
    http://globalnews.ca/news/2683866/al.../?sf25821684=1

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  62. #262

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Seems like the big difference between Slave Lake and Fort McMurray is that the Slave Lake fire beelined for the town and people were actually evacuating before an order was given. The Fort McMurray fire was big enough and close enough that evac order was given for some neighbourhoods Sunday night but lifted the next day when the fire started moving southwest. It wasn't until Tuesday afternoon the fire changed direction and then doubled in size in the space of a couple of hours. I suspect people had relaxed thinking the fire was moving away so where a bit off guard when the fire came roaring into town.

    It's a testament to the people of Fort McMurray and the emergency responders there that they were able to get everybody out given how fast the fire was moving.
    I'm no weather forecaster so I have no idea how much notice can be obtained for different fires but I don't believe this was a very fast wind blown fire. Was it? It also hit mid day so they had decent visibility.

    Now with the hypotheticals. Since its been stated that in windy conditions embers can travel many kilometres, can easily jump a highway, I could imagine a situation in a densely forested town, a fire surrounding people on a number of sides in a community or while evacuating via a highway, burning up cars and blocking any exit. From there, who knows what could happen in a populated situation. That would be worse case, very rare in my imagination.

    However, in watching the videos of Ft McMurray it seems that there could have been a few places where roads could have been blocked by fires igniting cars stuck in gridlock. I have no idea what could be done to avoid any risk like that if it were even present - but my sense is that they were lucky that some winds didn't suddenly come up and sweep the fire right over the city.


    Forest fires can spread INSANELY quick
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEAtSj5LM34
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvPa_yEEd4E - in the NWT

    Cars stuck in gridlock:
    Escape from Cajon Pass (brushfire of July 17, 2015)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6I8hwn3Qax8
    While it did not have the 100km/h winds of the Slave Lake fire my understanding is that Tuesday afternoon wind speed went up into the 40km/h range and shifted direction towards the city. That combined with the how dry the forest was led to the fire covering several km in a couple of hours.
    My point is only that future such planning and infrastructure spending needs to account for worst case scenarios because the downside can be so, so incredibly bad. It's not good enough to ask experts what they expect. (All you'll get is some average expectation, an averaged out probability between normally bad and their worst case, and so budgetary, contingency and other prioritization falls out of that low expectation.) Experts need to be asked: What's the worst that can happen and how do we attempt to prepare for it?" That way, a few, just a few extra steps may be taken that could make for huge, huge differences when everyone's luck turns bad.

    Similarly, fire departments have long fought against vinyl siding. Well, we all see normal fires where the siding doesn't make much of a difference, but I'm guessing that the firefighters have a different perspective, since they can imagine a worst case scenario where the type of siding does make a difference and that difference leads to the rare but exceedingly catastrophic results. (Someone in the know please correct me on this line of thought if I'm wrong.)



    $25-million fire calls building codes into question
    DAVID EBNER
    CALGARY — From Monday's Globe and Mail
    Published Monday, Jul. 23, 2007



    "Mr. Wolsey called for immediate, interim changes to the country's building codes, particularly in Alberta, where a massive building boom is creating suburb after suburb of homes that he says are less safe than they appear.
    ...

    "There needs to be a whole change in philosophy for building codes," Chief Randy Wolseysaid in an interview, explaining that flammable material, such as vinyl siding, helps fires to spread quickly.



    ...

    "It really could have turned into a wildfire. The work the firefighters did was absolutely incredible," Ray Danyluk, Alberta's Housing Minister, said in an interview yesterday.




    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...article689857/
    Last edited by KC; 06-05-2016 at 03:59 PM.

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    ^I was only commenting on the spread of the fire, not your other points. I have little knowledge of infrastructure planning although I do know in terms of flood risks, infrastructure planning is based around 100 year events. My assumption would be it is similar with other possible natural events.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  64. #264

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    ^I was only commenting on the spread of the fire, not your other points. I have little knowledge of infrastructure planning although I do know in terms of flood risks, infrastructure planning is based around 100 year events. My assumption would be it is similar with other possible natural events.
    Yeah, I'm just running off my mouth on a pet peeve. Sorry.

    Still though, I sure wish I had the video of the Fukushima scientist that said something to the effect that they built the nuclear plant on a beach subject to tsunamis because their models said it would be ok.

    Ooops.
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Rumour has it that Japan is going to gather up all the designers, builders, and executives and offer them a free tour of the plant.


    I vote this for Quote of the Century:

    "We thought we had taken adequate precautions for a tsunami but what happened was beyond our expectations." - Prof. Akito Amoto

    or this

    "We are not in a position where we can be optimistic." - current Japanese Prime Minister

    see about the 2:20 min mark
    http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/wor...ner.nhk?hpt=C2

    Japan's Prime Minister: Nuclear Situation Grave
    http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/...ituation-grave
    http://www.connect2edmonton.ca/forum...reply&p=357707

  65. #265

    Default

    Window failure occurred first.

    I wonder if fireproof eaves and window shutters would buy enough time to allow a fire to pass by.

    Video: Man watched home burn on his phone as he fled Fort McMurray - The Globe and Mail

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle29920955/

  66. #266

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    No as the windows will shatter under such immense heat anyways.

  67. #267

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    I'm not sure about that. Probably depends what's burning nearby and how long the heat hits the surface. Then how much intense heat could get through a cracked or broken window to hit flammable surfaces. It just seems that something should be able to help if designed properly.

    I know rated wood stoves can be sit surprisingly quite close to walls. Unrated wood stoves (old stoves) require about a metre or a lot less with a heat shield - so heat from a stove can be dissipated quite easily it seems.


    There seems to be products already on the market. Here's a random one...
    http://www.ultimateshutter.com.au/pa...-protection-7/

  68. #268

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    If the vinyl siding, the deck and the shingles are on fire, it does not matter if the windows were Pyrex and do not fail. The house will burn to the ground regardless and would have lasted only a few minutes longer.

    There are preventative measures such as brick, ( used extensively out east ), metal, slate or tile roofs, and fire supression methods such as exterior sprinklers, and fire retardant products that can be applied if a threat is imminent that home owners can apply from a kit.

    If they rebuild these communities with the same disregard for fire safety, and don't retrofit other homes in threatened communities all across Alberta and Canada for that matter, we will continue to live in a fools paradise.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  69. #269

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    If the vinyl siding, the deck and the shingles are on fire, it does not matter if the windows were Pyrex and do not fail. The house will burn to the ground regardless and would have lasted only a few minutes longer.

    There are preventative measures such as brick, ( used extensively out east ), metal, slate or tile roofs, and fire supression methods such as exterior sprinklers, and fire retardant products that can be applied if a threat is imminent that home owners can apply from a kit.

    If they rebuild these communities with the same disregard for fire safety, and don't retrofit other homes in threatened communities all across Alberta and Canada for that matter, we will continue to live in a fools paradise.
    The newer Fiberglass asphalt shingles have a class A fire rating. Still, on our cabin we just put on a metal roof and plan to put metal on the remaining buildings soon.

    Vinyl siding without a fire resistant backing is a problem. I'd prefer a nice stucco or other finish.

    Unfortunately, they'll probably rebuilt with the same old stuff that failed the first time. That's how things typically work.

    The sprayers on the roof seem like a great idea though if every house at once turned on theirs it might reduce pressure. They'd need to pulse.

    A water tower or reservoir and a high pressure neighbourhood-drenching system might be the answer.

    Having a river full of water flowing through town is a sad irony.

    I believe I posted this earlier:

    Building-code changes rejected for wildfire-prone areas

    Proposals submitted before 2011 wildfire destroyed hundreds of homes in Slave Lake, Alta.
    The Canadian Press Posted: Dec 03, 2012 10:33 AM MT Last Updated: Dec 03, 2012 10:32 AM MT

    ...
    The end result is a Catch-22 in which municipalities in wildfire-prone areas in some provinces can't bring in tougher rules for builders.

    "Should we not have higher building standards to prevent places like Slave Lake from occurring?" Tracey asked.

    "Have we learned anything from these incidents, and to be frank, has there been any public policy changes as a result of that?

    "No."

    The agency told the commission that requiring simple design changes could make the difference between a home or building surviving a wildfire or being destroyed.
    ....

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...reas-1.1177036
    Last edited by KC; 07-05-2016 at 06:46 AM.

  70. #270
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    Some interesting fire management notes here including a suggestion to clear the spruce back two km from townsites. Also suggested was allowing fires that do not threaten communities to burn. This creates natural firebreaks across the forest and can contain the size of the fires.

    Quirks and Quarks: Fort McMurray and the future of fire

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  71. #271

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    Quote Originally Posted by Top_Dawg View Post
    Top_Dawg has to say that the scarecrow is looking more haggard by the day.
    TD, are you referring to the Premier ?

    You're a real POS.

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    I think he was referring to Rex Murphy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Drumbones View Post
    I think he was referring to Rex Murphy.
    I assumed he was referring to Notley, because his comment was made seven minutes after the video of her statements, and was posted immediately below it.

    I guess he can say whatever he wants about Notley's appearance, but I'd like to see how elegantly he comports himself while overseeing the management of a fire that is on its way to becoming three times as large as the city of Edmonton.

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    Syncrude just announced they are shutting down operations.
    “You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarsands View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Top_Dawg View Post
    Top_Dawg has to say that the scarecrow is looking more haggard by the day.
    TD, are you referring to the Premier ?

    You're a real POS.
    Nobody is a POS,not even you. He was talking about Rex Murphy.

  76. #276

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by hello lady View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Tarsands View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Top_Dawg View Post
    Top_Dawg has to say that the scarecrow is looking more haggard by the day.
    TD, are you referring to the Premier ?

    You're a real POS.
    Nobody is a POS,not even you. He was talking about Rex Murphy.
    So then it's ok? Hilarious!

  77. #277

    Default

    As of now, the fire is burning 156,000 hectares and will continue to grow.
    2,400 vehicles were allowed through yesterday from north of the city.
    Today more people will be allowed through via convoys. The groups have to be kept together as visibility is low and all accesses into the city not allowed.
    Over 500 firefighters are on the ground in the area, 15 choppers and 14 air tankers.


    Province wide, we have over 1400 firefighters, 133 copters, 27 air tankers battling fires all across the province.


    The province is providing free fuel services at rest areas along the way to ensure people in the convoys can get enough fuel to the next town/hamlet.
    Lots of food and water and fuel are available at these locations.


    This is at a rest stop just north of Wandering River where I was stationed for a while...a grocer dropped off pallets of water and granola bars:

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    How long does it take to train someone to fight forest fires? I'd guess there are a few thousand recently displaced residents who would volunteer today.

  79. #279

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Some interesting fire management notes here including a suggestion to clear the spruce back two km from townsites. Also suggested was allowing fires that do not threaten communities to burn. This creates natural firebreaks across the forest and can contain the size of the fires.

    Quirks and Quarks: Fort McMurray and the future of fire
    I saw mention of the 2km perimeter in one of the links I posted up this thread. I think it may already in the mitigation plans.


    If I was the mayor and council of Ft. McMurray, I think I'd overstep my municipal powers and pass a few bylaws to permanently reduce the commnity's fire risk, and risk to firefighters' lives, like banning vinyl siding, propane BBQ bottles, etc. and let the builders, etc. that don't care about people's safety try to sue while the community gets rebuilt. They'd probably win but maybe not before significant rebuild has occurred.

    Maybe immediately expropriate some burned out lots before the rebuild can start and set those lots aside for for future storage yards for boats, RVs, maybe a concrete propane bottle storage building in the event of an emergency, etc.

    Can you imagine what the firefighters were thinking as BBQs were probably exploding around them. (I'm guessing that the regulators on natural gas lines make them a lot safer.)

    I'm back. It looks like I may be wrong on the propane bottle thing - see below:
    So gas tanks in parked cars, ATVs, boats, RVs may be a bigger wildfire safety issue.


    During a wildfire or structure fire, propane tanks will only blow with direct flame impingement that is long enough to heat the tank cherry red and rupture the tank.

    Pressure Relief Valve

    The second thing that would cause a propane tank explosion would be if the pressure relief valve is damaged and won’t open.
    ...
    During a wildfire or structure fire, propane tanks are designed to vent so they don’t burst or explode. The vented fuel will catch fire if near an ignition source as would be the case in a fire
    http://firewisemaderacounty.org/propane-tanks/

    Page 13 "HIV"...

    How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/arti...9/#!po=8.62069
    Last edited by KC; 07-05-2016 at 01:21 PM.

  80. #280
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tarsands View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Top_Dawg View Post
    Top_Dawg has to say that the scarecrow is looking more haggard by the day.
    TD, are you referring to the Premier ?

    You're a real POS.
    You can be reasonably sure that the Dawg was referring to the Premier. He has referred to her using this nickname on C2E in the past.

  81. #281

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    I just read how the beast is expected to reach the Suncor site, but not worried, because they have a large clearing and own fire crew. So, we protect our oil sands sites properly, why don't we protect our towns?

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    A note on the two km perimeter suggestion. The fire expert I was listening to said the problem wasn't trees but spruce in particular. Clearing back and planting with deciduous trees would mitigate the problem. The issue with spruce is all the burning embers they create that run ahead of the fire. They are what allows the fire to jump so far ahead.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  83. #283

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    Quote Originally Posted by JamesL View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Tarsands View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Top_Dawg View Post
    Top_Dawg has to say that the scarecrow is looking more haggard by the day.
    TD, are you referring to the Premier ?

    You're a real POS.
    You can be reasonably sure that the Dawg was referring to the Premier. He has referred to her using this nickname on C2E in the past.
    Although in fairness she has aged horribly recently. I suspect she might care too much about the job / take stuff personally, I think egocentric narcissists are better suited to the top spot (Trudeau hasn't aged much for example).

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    I just read how the beast is expected to reach the Suncor site, but not worried, because they have a large clearing and own fire crew. So, we protect our oil sands sites properly, why don't we protect our towns?
    What keeps the oil sands sites fairly clear is that they're devoid of most vegetation and the buildings are made of a lot steel. Not sure people want to live in bunkers in an area devoid of even grass.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    The New York Times sent one of their Pulitzer Prize-winning staff photographers up to Fort McMurray.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/07/wo...imageslideshow


  87. #287

    Default Air Canada getting flak

    It seems their fares automatically charged last minute prices for evacuees:

    http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/air-c...tion-1.2891081

    I wonder if someone would have stepped in a bit quicker if it had been a disaster near their Montreal HQ? Westjet by contrast is getting a lot of praise.

    http://mytoba.ca/featured/westjet-pr...c-evacuations/

    As for the cost, Westjet says it doesn't matter and they will deal with it later.
    Way to go, I know who I'm booking flights with.
    Last edited by moahunter; 08-05-2016 at 11:08 AM.

  88. #288

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    Pretty much everything you need to know about the week that was:

    A week in Hell: How Fort McMurray burned
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...+Article+Links
    www.decl.org

  89. #289
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    Good news. The fire did not expand as expected yesterday so it's around ~160,000 Ha rather than the 300k+ they thought might happen by today.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  90. #290

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    Quote Originally Posted by GreenSPACE View Post
    Pretty much everything you need to know about the week that was:

    A week in Hell: How Fort McMurray burned
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...+Article+Links


    Good article.

    Since Slave Lake went up in flames and people narrowly escaped, with a highway being blocked by fire, and now this reoccurrence, there's lots of preventative lessons to be learned for other forested communities in Alberta.

    Eg. No one should have been running out of gas, cluttering up the only exit routes and causing delays.

    Evacuation grid lock occuring within and without the city is a real issue.

    It said propane was popping everywhere. That's not supposed to happen.

    Lack of alternate exit routes. (A known and even published problem.)

    Too many evergreens too close to housing developments. (Apparently there were working on that so it may just have been too little too late.)

    Some sort of lack of mandatory preparation decrees. (As in some sort of mandatory call to fill up one's tank early enough to determine who would and wouldn't have access to fuel and being able to resupply gas stations.)

    A gas station being allowed to burn up / explode.

    A propane storage facility having a fire anywhere near it.

    ...

    And finally course, things like vinyl siding which fire chiefs gave tried to ban for decades. Especially when things like hardi-board and other fibre-cement finishes have long been available. (We'll now "socialize the losses" to homeowners, and not builders, via higher fire insurance rates across the country.)
    Last edited by KC; 08-05-2016 at 01:00 PM.

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    The losses are not socialized to homeowners instead of builders. The homeowners did not want to pay for the Hardie Board in the first place.

    Some of the comments are ludicrous. We are going to start monitoring the gas level in everyone's vehicles now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Some interesting fire management notes here including a suggestion to clear the spruce back two km from townsites. Also suggested was allowing fires that do not threaten communities to burn. This creates natural firebreaks across the forest and can contain the size of the fires.

    Quirks and Quarks: Fort McMurray and the future of fire
    I saw mention of the 2km perimeter in one of the links I posted up this thread. I think it may already in the mitigation plans.


    If I was the mayor and council of Ft. McMurray, I think I'd overstep my municipal powers and pass a few bylaws to permanently reduce the commnity's fire risk, and risk to firefighters' lives, like banning vinyl siding, propane BBQ bottles, etc. and let the builders, etc. that don't care about people's safety try to sue while the community gets rebuilt. They'd probably win but maybe not before significant rebuild has occurred.

    Maybe immediately expropriate some burned out lots before the rebuild can start and set those lots aside for for future storage yards for boats, RVs, maybe a concrete propane bottle storage building in the event of an emergency, etc.

    Can you imagine what the firefighters were thinking as BBQs were probably exploding around them. (I'm guessing that the regulators on natural gas lines make them a lot safer.)

    I'm back. It looks like I may be wrong on the propane bottle thing - see below:
    So gas tanks in parked cars, ATVs, boats, RVs may be a bigger wildfire safety issue.


    During a wildfire or structure fire, propane tanks will only blow with direct flame impingement that is long enough to heat the tank cherry red and rupture the tank.

    Pressure Relief Valve

    The second thing that would cause a propane tank explosion would be if the pressure relief valve is damaged and won’t open.
    ...
    During a wildfire or structure fire, propane tanks are designed to vent so they don’t burst or explode. The vented fuel will catch fire if near an ignition source as would be the case in a fire
    http://firewisemaderacounty.org/propane-tanks/
    Page 13 "HIV"...

    How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/arti...9/#!po=8.62069
    At least if anything the fire is taking care of some of the pine beetle infestation. Except for the 2 deaths the loss of human life is off the chart. Its the wildlife I'm concerned about in this tragedy.

    Its great that the evacuees have lots of donated food but they also need a lot of pots and pans they don't have too cook it.
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

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    The only major issue I see in this situation was the proximity of conifers to the town and perhaps the low number of exits from the neighbourhoods. On the latter point, though, considering they evacuated most of the city in a few hours I'm not sure it's that much of an issue.

    As for the other points: There's no way you could enforce a decree to fill up gas tanks. It would be pointless. The best that can be done is what was done, declare a state of emergency and warn people that an evacuation may be imminent and to be prepared.

    Propane tanks will not explode under any normal circumstances however an extreme enough fire can overwhelm the relief valves. The thing is, though, that a fire intense of enough to do that will also be so intense the exploding tank isn't going to cause any more damage than is already being done.

    The same holds true for the gas station and propane facility. In the face of a massive, exceptional, and fast moving fire there is only so much that can be done. I'm amazed at how much they have saved. I am curious as to whether any of big propane storage tanks did rupture. I'm thinking not as I've read reports of big fires in propane yards where the building were gone but the tanks survived.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    CTV has couple of minutes of raw footage from a helicopter flying over the city:

    http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/video?clip...ylistPageNum=1

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    Just to reinforce how dry it is and how important the fire ban is, there's a grass fire in Wolf Willow that has led to a few houses with cedar shingles having roof fires. Word on Twitter is the grass fire is now under control but no word on the roof fires.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  96. #296

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    The only major issue I see in this situation was the proximity of conifers to the town and perhaps the low number of exits from the neighbourhoods. On the latter point, though, considering they evacuated most of the city in a few hours I'm not sure it's that much of an issue.

    As for the other points: There's no way you could enforce a decree to fill up gas tanks. It would be pointless. The best that can be done is what was done, declare a state of emergency and warn people that an evacuation may be imminent and to be prepared.

    Propane tanks will not explode under any normal circumstances however an extreme enough fire can overwhelm the relief valves. The thing is, though, that a fire intense of enough to do that will also be so intense the exploding tank isn't going to cause any more damage than is already being done.

    The same holds true for the gas station and propane facility. In the face of a massive, exceptional, and fast moving fire there is only so much that can be done. I'm amazed at how much they have saved. I am curious as to whether any of big propane storage tanks did rupture. I'm thinking not as I've read reports of big fires in propane yards where the building were gone but the tanks survived.
    Yeah, preventative measures should always be the first line of defence. That's common sense even though at that, prevention often isn't done due to costs and priorities.

    Mandatory tank fill. You may be right but maybe a pre-emergence state of readiness call might inspire a few people to act. None of these mandatory decrees ever completely work. Telling people to be ready to evacuate though provides little detailed advance guidance. Obviously the knowledge of a fire a short distance from the town didn't work. (Apparently over the years the mayor had harped on and on ad nausium about having a 72 hour bag ready. I wonder how many did so.)

    On the propane tanks and other fuel hazard, again, I don't know the risks. However how many fire and police staff should be expected to enter areas that have such risks? All things I don't know but in situations like Slave Lake and Ft McMurray there should be absolute no criticism of emergency responders, though, I imagine there will be. (There always is despite a lack of prevention in the first place.)

    Moreover they did have mandatory evacuation and even that didn't work (some people stayed put) and I'd guess that it wasn't easily enforced until the flames were visible. However those that ignore it have to face the fact that they may be left on their own.

    I guess they will have to look at the causes of the gridlock and see what went right and wrong. An interview with a couple that apparently spent hours crossing the city (gathering kids at schools) and then another three hours trying to get out are what raised my concerns.

    For all I know the evacuation went extremely well and as planned or expected. I don't know what the standard would be. However, I don't think the low to near zero casualty rate should be a factor in the assessment.
    Last edited by KC; 08-05-2016 at 04:41 PM.

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    At the time the mandatory evacuation order was given the vast majority left as quickly as possible. Given more than 99% of the population obeyed the order I'd say the order worked fine.

    With the propane tanks, the risk to emergency personnel entering an area would be nil. If they can actually enter the area then there is no risk of a tank rupturing. The amount of heat necessary to rupture a tank would kill anyone close before the tank went.

    And the gridlock. Frankly, everyone got out in the face of one of the fastest moving fires ever seen in an urban area in Alberta. I'd say while it would be frustrating for those involved, it was still moving fast enough to accommodate everyone leaving.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  98. #298

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Just to reinforce how dry it is and how important the fire ban is, there's a grass fire in Wolf Willow that has led to a few houses with cedar shingles having roof fires. Word on Twitter is the grass fire is now under control but no word on the roof fires.
    Yeah we were out for a walk in whitemud ravine and saw lots of smoke coming from the west side of the river. However, I heard that there were a number of little fires around the city this afternoon. Seems like an odd coincidence, but then, recent news has caused heightened awareness so maybe not.

    There was a photo of them putting out a fire by the zoo. Where the fire truck in the photo was is a location where very few people walk. Maybe it started further to the east in the dog park and travelled up wind or maybe arson.

  99. #299

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    At the time the mandatory evacuation order was given the vast majority left as quickly as possible. Given more than 99% of the population obeyed the order I'd say the order worked fine.

    With the propane tanks, the risk to emergency personnel entering an area would be nil. If they can actually enter the area then there is no risk of a tank rupturing. The amount of heat necessary to rupture a tank would kill anyone close before the tank went.

    And the gridlock. Frankly, everyone got out in the face of one of the fastest moving fires ever seen in an urban area in Alberta. I'd say while it would be frustrating for those involved, it was still moving fast enough to accommodate everyone leaving.
    Yeah, as I said, it's all well beyond my experience and level knowledge on these things and their associated risk levels.

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    Apparently this is the start location according to government officials:


    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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