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Thread: December 30, 2016 WTI Oil Price Prediction

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    Default December 30, 2016 WTI Oil Price Prediction

    Since there were already a few predictions posted in last year's thread, thought I'd start a new one for this year.

    Same as last year. Guess the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil quoted in US dollars on the last trading day of 2016 which is Friday, December 30.

    To be counted, a specific price is needed, not a price range, and be posted before March 31.

    A new wrinkle this year is posters who guess early on can revise their guess (if they want) until the end of March.

    Guesses in last year's thread for the end of 2016 are $48 by blainehamilton (last year's winner), $45 by Kitlope, and $35 by evaneo.

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    i'll double down with the same $78.50 i picked for last year...
    "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

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    $69.69

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    $32
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    I'm sticking with $52.

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  6. #6

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    $43.

    There have been a few interesting articles recently about how the Canadian dollar really is the petro dollar. We correlate at about .5 to WTI. In other words, if WTI goes back up over $100 one day, we will probably be looking at parity with the USD again. It makes sense, petroleum products dwarf all other exports Canada makes, it is our foreign currency earner.

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    $28.75

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    $46.55
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    $55.00 us
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    $60

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    $65
    $Cdn at .82USD

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    Oops. Start a thread and then forget to post my own prediction.

    $51.00.

    Here's hoping most of our guesses for 2016 err toward the downside, rather than the upside.

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    $63.47
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    before the end of 2016 should be around $ 45
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    $48.50
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  17. #17

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    Copied my 2016 predictions from the previous thread:




    Some predictions you may or may not find 100% inaccurate for December 31, 2016:


    WTI $48
    CAD 0.68 USD
    TSX 12500
    DOW 18500
    NASDAQ 5500




    Going to be a ho hum year for Albertans and Canadians until the fall of 2016 when the housing market will start to slide in Calgary and GTA due to excess unsold summer inventory.



    I will resume my dart board method of investing Jan 4, 2016.

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    I predicted $63 for the end of 2015.

    For 2016 I am predicting $58.

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    Oil: $42
    TSX: 14,300
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    Quote Originally Posted by East McCauley View Post
    Oops. Start a thread and then forget to post my own prediction.

    $51.00.


    Quote Originally Posted by East McCauley View Post
    Here's hoping most of our guesses for 2016 err toward the downside, rather than the upside.
    Hear hear!

    $130.00

    By the way, which currency are we talking? I assume USD...
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    Just so its official $35 WTI What are we doing here playing jeopardy?
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    ^^Yes, USD.

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    $108.50
    (Thank you Mr. Putin)

  24. #24

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    $77.88
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  25. #25

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    I'll just go with last year's guess of $54. (Some year I may actually be right.)

    With production still climbing, Saudi Arabia and Iran now cutting diplomatic ties, I'm also guessing that I may be very wrong in one direction or the other.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EEDC_BRAD View Post
    $108.50
    (Thank you Mr. Putin)
    I wonder if a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran might do it too
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-rise...ons-1451875967
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    Its going to be interesting to see how the price of oil responds to this current crisis over the next few days.
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  28. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    Its going to be interesting to see how the price of oil responds to this current crisis over the next few days.
    China is still slowing so I'd guess that that will be the driver.

    I was going to put in a guess of $25 for the year (slowing economies, significantly overvalued US and other stock markets coming down creating more fear...) but if that happens, I'm guessing oil could tumble further before the end of the year. By year end, production cuts, etc... maybe a recovery?

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    I'm going with the same as last year as well, $57 USD by the end of the year. Annual average will be significantly lower though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    Its going to be interesting to see how the price of oil responds to this current crisis over the next few days.
    China is still slowing so I'd guess that that will be the driver.

    I was going to put in a guess of $25 for the year (slowing economies, significantly overvalued US and other stock markets coming down creating more fear...) but if that happens, I'm guessing oil could tumble further before the end of the year. By year end, production cuts, etc... maybe a recovery?
    i'm not sure how much i would rely on reported numbers out of china for future forecasting. she is notorious for under reporting growth (i.e. forecasting 6% and reporting 8.5% while experiencing 11%)...

    she is acquiring equity commodity positions worldwide and securing "futures deliveries" at current pricing.

    the driver you reference china as being will still be american demand - which still looks quite strong - and global demand (which includes an ever-increasing chinese home market consumption).
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    I am guessing $65 with price staying low until about September then rising.
    My antidepressent drug of choice is running. Cheaper with less side effects!

  32. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by EEDC_BRAD View Post
    $108.50
    (Thank you Mr. Putin)
    Concur!

  33. #33

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    Its going to be interesting to see how the price of oil responds to this current crisis over the next few days.
    Total wash within 24 hrs. It's a non-event. These temper tantrums are common in the Middle Beast and they still have a few proxies to play before they come to blows (Lebanon and Bahrain).

    It would be interesting if they are on 'speaking terms' when they meet twice annually for the OPEC confab.

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    ^ It's mostly posturing and sabre rattling. I've seen it before. Opec meets in June and by that time it'll all be blown over.
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  35. #35

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    Iran vs SA hasn't full on exploded, but things are heating up for sure. They already have multiple proxy wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and more loom. Flights are now cancelled too.

    China seems to be flopping around though. They had to halt trading because of how fast and hard stocks tanked, DOW lost 400 pts, china slid 7% and their manufacturers reported loss of activity. China is having some problems and it makes markets worse because of the lack of transparency in the way they report things. 8% growth when it's 6%.

    Iran/SA and China wonkiness impacting global markets are going to kick oil in the nuts.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...0UI14E20160104

  36. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    ^ It's mostly posturing and sabre rattling. I've seen it before. Opec meets in June and by that time it'll all be blown over.
    Sometimes it's posturing, this is slightly more than posturing. Iran wants sanctions lifted, they are cozying up to the US (hell even kissinger says this is the way to go) and the US isn't telling Iran to suck it like they usually do (missile tests aside). Usually the US would pretty blatantly back SA, despite the Human Rights abuses. They've thus far pretty much told SA to stfu and stop stirring up ****. The US (and NATO) are all getting fed up with SA trying to be the grand Mullah and dictating policy in the region and spreading Wahhabism across the area. SA doesn't want Iran to be a major player. Battles lines are already drawn but you've got groups like hezbollah joining the fray. Bahrain and Sudan back SA, hell even the UAE (despite the large population of Iranians) is telling Iran to f' off. China is weighing in on the issue (which seemingly never happens in a public forum. This isn't the regular posturing. All out war in the M.E? Doubtful right now, but it does add to the issues currently in the region and helps no one looking for stability. This could either raise oil prices or the two could really go at it and pump more oil to further drive down prices and try to economically kill the other country. It's not clear cut what will happen but this isn't the usual back and forth. Once economic sanctions are lifted on Iran, Saudi Arabia has some serious economic and political competition to deal with. The house of Saud wants to run the middle east. Iran doesn't want that. And considering the social reforms that could follow an easing of economic hardships that puts Iran in back in a cultural prime (potentially) that it hasn't seen since the 60s versus SA going ever further (seemingly) back into the dark ages.

    I don't know, I just don't see how this is the usual sabre rattling and pissy pot shots they normally take. They already have a serious proxy war in multiple countries and SA is already waging economic war. They talk about high cost producers in the US and Canada, but let's not kid ourselves once the nuke deal was reached with Iran the Saudis realized the power that Iran could wield with an improved economy.

    Could this all go away come OPEC meeting? Sure, hell even by the end of the month or even week. But who knows until the economic sanctions get lifted and more don't get imposed because of Iranian missile tests. It all depends on how cozy the Iranians get with the US. The world is starting to clue into how toxic some of the policies SA has. *Not that I necessarily support the Iranians either, but some of the crap SA is pulling is just sickening.

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    $48.15

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    Well between geopolitics, Fed moves, trading 'paper' barrels, bets by hedgies, and supply/demand nobody can venture a credible guess where this thing is going. Would need a super computer to factor in all these moving pieces.

    Clearly the Goldman Sachs/Al Saud clan wants the price to crash to $20.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LoebsPeugot208 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    ^ It's mostly posturing and sabre rattling. I've seen it before. Opec meets in June and by that time it'll all be blown over.
    Sometimes it's posturing, this is slightly more than posturing. Iran wants sanctions lifted, they are cozying up to the US (hell even kissinger says this is the way to go) and the US isn't telling Iran to suck it like they usually do (missile tests aside). Usually the US would pretty blatantly back SA, despite the Human Rights abuses. They've thus far pretty much told SA to stfu and stop stirring up ****. The US (and NATO) are all getting fed up with SA trying to be the grand Mullah and dictating policy in the region and spreading Wahhabism across the area. SA doesn't want Iran to be a major player. Battles lines are already drawn but you've got groups like hezbollah joining the fray. Bahrain and Sudan back SA, hell even the UAE (despite the large population of Iranians) is telling Iran to f' off. China is weighing in on the issue (which seemingly never happens in a public forum. This isn't the regular posturing. All out war in the M.E? Doubtful right now, but it does add to the issues currently in the region and helps no one looking for stability. This could either raise oil prices or the two could really go at it and pump more oil to further drive down prices and try to economically kill the other country. It's not clear cut what will happen but this isn't the usual back and forth. Once economic sanctions are lifted on Iran, Saudi Arabia has some serious economic and political competition to deal with. The house of Saud wants to run the middle east. Iran doesn't want that. And considering the social reforms that could follow an easing of economic hardships that puts Iran in back in a cultural prime (potentially) that it hasn't seen since the 60s versus SA going ever further (seemingly) back into the dark ages.

    I don't know, I just don't see how this is the usual sabre rattling and pissy pot shots they normally take. They already have a serious proxy war in multiple countries and SA is already waging economic war. They talk about high cost producers in the US and Canada, but let's not kid ourselves once the nuke deal was reached with Iran the Saudis realized the power that Iran could wield with an improved economy.

    Could this all go away come OPEC meeting? Sure, hell even by the end of the month or even week. But who knows until the economic sanctions get lifted and more don't get imposed because of Iranian missile tests. It all depends on how cozy the Iranians get with the US. The world is starting to clue into how toxic some of the policies SA has. *Not that I necessarily support the Iranians either, but some of the crap SA is pulling is just sickening.
    I actually read your whole post, thanks.

    If the powers that be really wanted to screw SA over good, they could always block Hormuz and the Bab-al-Mandab straights from preventing SA to ship their oil.
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  40. #40

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    Indeed they could block Hormuz et. all, but then all out war across the ME likely happens. I can only imagine the sort of alliances that form out of it and who picks which sides. Just look at the current actions in Syria and Lebanon and the alliances/allegiances/groupings that have formed up.

    For the sake of making a point I will post a few diagrams to show the complexity and why even seemingly minor spats can turn so ugly:






  41. #41

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    Says a lot when Al Qaida is the 'sanest' faction in the field. The head of the Army of Islam was whacked on Dec 25. Probably had a lot to do with the Saudis upping the ante by whacking the Tiger of Leopards (Nimr al Nimr) within the week.

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    ^^ This whole ME thing gives me a headache.
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  43. #43

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    Quote Originally Posted by Safir View Post
    Says a lot when Al Qaida is the 'sanest' faction in the field. The head of the Army of Islam was whacked on Dec 25. Probably had a lot to do with the Saudis upping the ante by whacking the Tiger of Leopards (Nimr al Nimr) within the week.
    AQ being the sane ones is debatable. I would suggest the Kurds or Turkmen, are likely the saner ones, but again debatable.

    As for who is getting whacked, pretty much a daily occurrence if you listen/watch al jazeera or follow the various forums and threads dedicated to the topic.

    @evaneo yup, it gives me a headache too. I saw a map that detailed all known alliances and movement of leaders/key people between organizations and the image was huge with thousands of links between hundreds of groups. The factionalization of the various entities is profound to say the least.

    I still stand by $65 prediction, but I think oil is going to drop further, possibly below 30 for a bit because SA is going to want to get in its pound of flesh out of the Iranians. And I believe the US will impose a few sanctions on Iran because of their ongoing missile tests. Perhaps as a way to save face with SA? Though I also think there is a big push to get friendlier with Iran and I think that the US wanting to work with Iran on the whole Daesh problem is part of that. So who knows. If SA and Iran can pull themselves back a bit before the next OPEC meeting than maybe we will see a production cut. Also who the hell knows what Russia is going to do. If the Baltic nations decide to get out buying electricity from Russia that could further undermine their ability to project power in the region and also utilize carbon fuels at home. If further sanctions on Russian exports prevent their oil and gas from reaching the market they can always pseudo-export it using their power grid. But it seems like there is a fairly large movement to cut off their integration with baltic states and move those nations over to Eurozone power grid. *I feel like I am repeating myself on that point and have made it elsewhere*. If Russia can't get to market (plus the majors pulling out of Russia and further limiting capital influx and skilled engineering/work) that may cause enough of a cut in production to bolster oil prices and allow SA and Iran to back off a bit on the rhetoric because they will be back to making big money (at least short term and until SA feels the need to again be the dominant player in the region that dictates all policy). None of this is accounting for the US changing its laws to allow for the export of oil.

    Blergh. Way too many pieces on the board right now with far too many hidden and hard to interpret motivations.

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    $44.58



    ....I hope I am low by about $44 though...

  45. #45

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    Oil hit $29.93 today, some are speculating $10 bottom, Nigeria demanded emergency
    OPEC meeting UAE said no.

  46. #46
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    it will be (an even bigger) war in the region once oil hits about $15... then the price will bounce back to $150 as Iran and UAE start bombing each other's wells... The world will get madder before it calms down.

    My prediction is $150.

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    Saudi Arabia and Iran won't bomb each other. Iran can't afford it, and Saudi Arabia knows they can't actually fight a war themselves (they can't even pacify rebels in Yemen using indiscriminate force without a single care for human rights). What they will both do is continue attempting to undermine each other from the inside and destabilize each other through proxy wars. At least until big brother USA steps in and finishes the fight.

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    What if the USA realizes they no longer need middle eastern oil and decides to stop wasting time and money meddling in the middle east? Its a longshot, but more possible now than any time in recent memory.

  49. #49

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    Iran would stomp SA if the US doesn't get involved. Proxy wars are pretty much going to be their tools of choice, but if they run out of cash then things get wonky real fast.

    The US being self sufficient on the oil front is one of the big reasons that SA is trying to kill US producers off. The problem is they will just kill the weak ones, the strong will buy up the assets and when prices go up be even stronger. Combine that with the fact that the US can now be an oil exporter with the restrictions lifted can now export like crazy. So what was once and ally that needed you as a resource partner in exchange for providing protection no longer needs your resources, SA is on their own and that's scary business. Especially with them getting all buddy buddy with your biggest enemy who can also provide the same resource as you for perhaps even less.

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    The US afraid of SA? Not a chance. All the US has to do is lift Iranian trad sanctions. That's over $150B up for grabs. SA does not want to make a enemy out of the US:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/06/wo...deal.html?_r=0
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  51. #51

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    The Real Price of Oil Is Far Lower Than You Realize
    Grant Smith
    January 13, 2016 — 5:01 PM MST Updated on January 14, 2016 — 1:54 AM MST

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-china-fizzles

  52. #52

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    No surprise here. I think we all pretty much acknowledged this possibility over a year ago...

    Canadian oil production growth could come to ‘complete standstill,’ IEA warns | Financial Post

    http://business.financialpost.com/ne..._lsa=24e0-cde5

    A quote from that same article..


    "In 2016, we are living in perhaps the first truly free oil market we have seen since the pioneering days of the industry,” the IEA said, with oil producers maximising production with little considerations for price.
    Last edited by KC; 22-02-2016 at 10:53 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    No surprise here. I think we all pretty much acknowledged this possibility over a year ago...

    Canadian oil production growth could come to ‘complete standstill,’ IEA warns | Financial Post

    http://business.financialpost.com/ne..._lsa=24e0-cde5
    A quote from that same article..


    "In 2016, we are living in perhaps the first truly free oil market we have seen since the pioneering days of the industry,” the IEA said, with oil producers maximising production with little considerations for price.
    and little consideration - despite lots of unfounded rhetoric - for environmental or social impact either. which may be telling when it comes to what's really important despite the rhetoric.
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    They can't mothball the oilsands and allow the pipelines to stop flowing - they can only slow it down to a snails crawl. Too expensive to do so not to mention pipelines depend on the flow of material to maintain integrity.

    My prediction is that futures trades will continue to sustain market volatility unfortunately for us.

    40 dollars a barrel - with lots of peaks and drops between as traders play their games.

  55. #55

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    Oil cannot be pumped out the ground unabated. The capacity to store this oil is going to run out sometime in the future. What is the point of churning out oil if there is no place to put it or if it sits in holding tanks for months on end. It cost money to store this product. Tankers waiting for weeks/months in the water loaded with oil is not very practical either.
    We are at the hurry up and wait stage as to when the price plunge starts to turn. It will turn but the million dollar question is 'when'.
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  56. #56

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    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    No surprise here. I think we all pretty much acknowledged this possibility over a year ago...

    Canadian oil production growth could come to ‘complete standstill,’ IEA warns | Financial Post

    http://business.financialpost.com/ne..._lsa=24e0-cde5
    A quote from that same article..


    "In 2016, we are living in perhaps the first truly free oil market we have seen since the pioneering days of the industry,” the IEA said, with oil producers maximising production with little considerations for price.
    and little consideration - despite lots of unfounded rhetoric - for environmental or social impact either. which may be telling when it comes to what's really important despite the rhetoric.
    Yup, once Fort Hills is complete i can't see another Oilsands projects being built for say another 50 years? A large portion of Edmonton's growth in the last 15 years has been Oilsands expansion and all the direct and ancillary jobs that created here. Look out below!!!

  57. #57

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    Oil price plunges after Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi rules out production cuts.

    HOUSTON • Saudi oil minister Ali Al-Naimi issued a stark warning Tuesday to global oil executives gathered in Houston, many of them North American producers: Lower your costs or “get out.”
    “The producers of those high-cost barrels must find a way to lower their costs, borrow cash or liquidate,” the minister told a business audience in Houston during a speech at the IHS Ceraweek event on Tuesday.
    “It sounds harsh, and unfortunately it is, but it is the most efficient way to rebalance markets. Cutting low-cost production to subsidize higher cost supplies only delays an inevitable reckoning.”
    The minister emphasized that OPEC has not “declared war on shale,” nor is it chasing greater market share and is seeking to cooperate with other producers.

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/price...543/story.html

    It's getting to the point were people are scared to open the business section and read about this stuff. Is there no end?.
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    I wonder how long these low prices will go on before Russia decides to "deal" with them?

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    I wonder how long these low prices will go on before Russia decides to "deal" with them?
    The Russians already have. The holdout is Iran, and to some extent Iraq. But SA and Russia have agreed to basically place a freeze on their December/January production. The problem is that for Iraq, that's an all time high so it's not really making any difference, and Iran doesn't want to sign on because they just had sanctions lifted and want to crank out an extra million barrels a day over what they were previously allowed to, at least.

  60. #60

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    And every time there is a "freeze" it's not held. Russia has "agreed" to freezes before and continued to increase production.

    SA, Iran, Russia, etc. are duking it out. This is what economic war looks like.

  61. #61
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    Over $50 today. The question, though, is if it will drop again once the oil sands are back online.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  62. #62

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    ^encouraging. Summer driving season still has a way to go as well, when that ends, it normally dips a bit.

  63. #63
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    ^^What's the butumen bubble discount at? With a million barrels off line for a month there could be a big bonus for alberta oil producers who weren't affected, and for the provincial government too, the increased royalty on the remaining 2/3 of production now getting a better price might be more than lost revenue on shut-down production.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    ^encouraging. Summer driving season still has a way to go as well, when that ends, it normally dips a bit.
    Ten bucks a barrel down on this time last year. Highs usually starts to drop back sometime around the end of June.
    "The only really positive thing one could say about Vancouver is, it’s not the rest of Canada." Oink (britishexpats.com)

  65. #65

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    Quote Originally Posted by highlander View Post
    ^^What's the butumen bubble discount at?
    According to Bloomberg data around -12 USD a barrel to WTI, currently. Since its most recent dip, in August 2015 at -20 USD, the discount has narrowed steadily. At the end of April, just before Fort McMurray fire started the discount was -13.35 USD.

  66. #66
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    Price will drop on June 2nd when OPEC meets and fails to agree on a production cap again. Saudi will increase supply to lower the price again as not enough American oil producer bankruptcies have occurred yet.

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    That could mean more Canadian bank layoffs.
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  68. #68
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    Oil prices will probably stick around $ 50-55 all of this year.
    Edmonton Rocks Rocks Rocks

  69. #69
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    Well, I'm no expert but I'd say between $40-50 between now and the rest of the year.
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  70. #70

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    OPEC is talking market collusion again.
    Congress has overruled Obama on suing Saudi Arabia.
    Obama has said something like: the legislation is extremely foolish.
    Trump may become the new "wild card" president.
    OPEC is talking about a meeting in November
    The US election is in November
    Putin has said to his people give it two years and things will turn around

    Interesting times.

    Brent crude LCOc1 settled up $2.72, or 5.9 percent, at $48.69 a barrel, hitting a more than two-week high of $48.96.

    U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 rose by $2.38, or 5.3 percent, to settle at $47.05, after a peak $47.45, its highest since Sept 8.

    The oil rally spilled over into the stock market, with Wall Street's index of energy shares .SPNY rising 4 percent for its best one-day gain since January. [.N]

    "This is a historic deal. This is the first time OPEC and non-OPEC will agree together in over a decade. This should put a floor on oil and should see oil move back toward the $60s," Phil Flynn, analyst at Chicago-based brokerage Price Futures Group.


    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gl...-idUSKCN11X03E

    The White House has fought against the bill for months, to no avail. Administration officials warn that it would put Americans overseas at legal risk and leave the United States vulnerable to bogus lawsuits ― and hefty bills ― in court systems around the world. The European Union and former top executive branch officials have urged Obama to stop it, in the name of protecting sovereign immunity. Saudi Arabia has threatened to retaliate by selling off hundreds of billions of dollars in American assets.

    But those arguments didn’t sway lawmakers, who say the White House’s case is overblown. The bill originally passed the House and Senate without a single “no” vote.


    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/...b082aad9b80f0a
    Markets are happy but I always wonder.

    "Here come the 70s"?
    Last edited by KC; 28-09-2016 at 06:33 PM.

  71. #71
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    I know its not oil related (or is it?) but how come we never hear of any Paris Isis like terror attacks against Saudi Arabia or Iran? I know why but just wondering what the c2e universe thinks.
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  72. #72

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    3/4ths of the way to the end of the year, not sure what it's going to take for the price to hit my guess ($130).
    Let's make Edmonton better.

  73. #73

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    I know its not oil related (or is it?) but how come we never hear of any Paris Isis like terror attacks against Saudi Arabia or Iran? I know why but just wondering what the c2e universe thinks.

    I know little, literally. However I think Saudi Arabia has had some terrorist activity but I think they are pretty much a police state plus I believe the majority of the population has religious beliefs that are closer to Wahhabism behind a lot of terrorism, than different from it.


    Weirdly repetitive but explains a bit:
    http://jcpa.org/article/sunni-vs-shi...-saudi-arabia/

    Frontline article:
    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...wahhabism.html

    My view. Even ISIS grabbed the oil and exported it to fund their activity and expansion. So the beauty of the oil for money trade with Saudi Arabia is that no matter who is in power, they will want money and will likely even trade with their religious enemies (maybe through an intermediary), so I don't see a huge threat beyond civil war destruction and being charged a premium price, at which time we'd ramp up our own production. So, short term interruption could be somewhat economically devastating but it would be short term.
    Last edited by KC; 29-09-2016 at 06:38 AM.

  74. #74
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    If only we could nuke the isis caliphate
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  75. #75

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    Just under $50 now on the OPEC agreement. I believe I rode with the same $58 bbl USD prediction as last year so I think my *** (that's where I picked my number out of) may have been too optimistic.

  76. #76
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    Almost $51 right now. While a month is a long time in this business I feel pretty good about my $52 call now.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  77. #77

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Almost $51 right now. While a month is a long time in this business I feel pretty good about my $52 call now.
    Pessimist!

  78. #78

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    I said $77.88. Forever the optimist I guess.
    "The man who does not read has no advantage over the man who cannot read." –Mark Twain

  79. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Almost $51 right now. While a month is a long time in this business I feel pretty good about my $52 call now.
    Pessimist!
    Realist.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  80. #80
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    My $75 is still a long way off but with the approval of the 2 pipelines (which wont come online for awhile) looks good. However as soon as they come online, that oil will only add to the oversupply problem, which got us to where we are now. When that happens, the Saudi's will go back to where they were and resume oil production again. In other words, we're about to cause ourselves (Canada) a self inflicting wound here.
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  81. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    My $75 is still a long way off but with the approval of the 2 pipelines (which wont come online for awhile) looks good. However as soon as they come online, that oil will only add to the oversupply problem, which got us to where we are now. When that happens, the Saudi's will go back to where they were and resume oil production again. In other words, we're about to cause ourselves (Canada) a self inflicting wound here.
    My murky understanding is the Western Canada Select price, currently around US$34, is in part depressed because of the lack of pipelines. If building the pipelines lowers the WTI price but results in an increase in the WCS price then we aren't wounding ourselves. However my overall understanding of the price relations isn't that strong so I'm going on what the governments and local producers (who obviously have their biases) have said.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  82. #82
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    By the time the pipelines come online, no one really knows where supply vs. demand will be, so it's impossible say whether or not they'll significantly impact world pricing. A lot of the product that's being moved by rail now will be moved by pipeline instead, so it isn't even necessarily new production/supply, just displacing less efficient and more hazardous rail transport. Both pipelines combined are somewhat less than 1m bpd, which is less than the OPEC production cutback announced yesterday. Not a drop in the bucket by any means, but they represent just over 1% of world oil production, of which a significant portion is already making it's way to market by rail.

    And in any case, there is already 1-2m bpd of production increases in the oil sands "baked in" over the next 10-15 years anyways, from already underway new projects and expansions of existing ones. That oil is coming online no matter what, and will find it's way to market one way or another. Whether by rail, or in the new pipelines.

    So no, I don't see how these pipelines are anything but a good thing for the energy industry in Alberta.

  83. #83

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    There are some hush hush projects to take bitumen and process it into solid rail 20-40 foot container sized chunks that are relatively inert (think solid coal) for shipment by rail. That will be one avenue for picking up the slack and removing some of the pain of shipping by rail that producers have right now.

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    Maybe someday they can fly these chunks out of Port Alberta or YMM and have them in China in a few hours.
    Last edited by Drumbones; 07-12-2016 at 01:56 AM.

  85. #85
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    ^ By that time alternate sources of energy will be ubiquitous making oil obsolete.
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  86. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    I'll just go with last year's guess of $54. (Some year I may actually be right.)

    With production still climbing, Saudi Arabia and Iran now cutting diplomatic ties, I'm also guessing that I may be very wrong in one direction or the other.
    Two weeks early from the look it.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  87. #87

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    I'll just go with last year's guess of $54. (Some year I may actually be right.)

    With production still climbing, Saudi Arabia and Iran now cutting diplomatic ties, I'm also guessing that I may be very wrong in one direction or the other.
    Two weeks early from the look it.

    Maybe I'll just pull a Trump and no matter what, i'll claim I was on the mark.

  88. #88
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    Now that Trump wants to fast track Keystone, and with Kinder Morgan approved will Saudi's/OPEC continue with their status quo oil production? The 2 pipelines mentioned above will only add to the surplus glut of oil.
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  89. #89

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    ^no they won't, just moves by pipeline instead of by train, and we get much better prices instead of selling at a discount. Canadian growth in production is tiny drop in ocean anyway.
    Last edited by moahunter; 12-12-2016 at 01:12 PM.

  90. #90

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    I literally have zero chance on this one, good luck to everyone.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

  91. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
    I literally have zero chance on this one, good luck to everyone.
    Think positive! There's still time for a 240% increase.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  92. #92
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    Can I change my answer, or I guess the question, to Brent?

  93. #93

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    Now that Trump wants to fast track Keystone, and with Kinder Morgan approved will Saudi's/OPEC continue with their status quo oil production? The 2 pipelines mentioned above will only add to the surplus glut of oil.

    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    ^no they won't, just moves by pipeline instead of by train, and we get much better prices instead of selling at a discount. Canadian growth in production is tiny drop in ocean anyway.
    Improved margins and volume, but that's still a long time away isn't it? When would the pipeline be completed? (It's been two years since oil prices really collapsed. How far away is pipeline relief?)

    As for prices today, it's all about interference with the free market through collusion. It has very little today to do with great business acumen. So those right leaning people should be aghast at these rising oil prices caused by the dirty anti-free market practices of foreign nation states.

    as we've discussed many times is that global growth in oil demand is still growth. Cheap oil just supports growth and hinders growth in alternative energy sources.

    Then add the fact that reserves are depleting, with businesses naturally depleting the lowest cost, highest margin reserves first, so the cost of oil has to rise unless technologies and discoveries somehow manage to bring down the costs on a scale on par with old low cost conventional oil reserve depletion.
    Last edited by KC; 13-12-2016 at 09:00 AM.

  94. #94
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    If only we left Saddam to burn the Mideast oilfields up. We'd be stylin' in Alberta. We would all be driving Lexus's and smokin big cigars. lol

  95. #95

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Then add the fact that reserves are depleting, with businesses naturally depleting the lowest cost, highest margin reserves first, so the cost of oil has to rise unless technologies and discoveries somehow manage to bring down the costs on a scale on par with old low cost conventional oil reserve depletion.
    That has been proven throughout the entire history of oil and gas. Everytime somebody thinks that costs are going up to get the next lot of reserves, they barely do, because of technology. There are accounts now that shale production is a fraction of the price it was to produce just a few years ago before this crises hit - the attention of focus changed from production increase to cost reduction. There will never be an oil and gas shortage, only a small fraction of the worlds reserves have been tapped, and what were once difficult to obtain reserves are now readily available at a reasonable cost - it will only get cheaper as technology moves on even further. There may one-day be a transition away from it as our primary fuel source, but at the moment global demand is still growing not declining, that's what will drive a price rebound.

    As to pipelines, unsure about Keystone, but the TM pipeline should be in operation early 2020.
    Last edited by moahunter; 13-12-2016 at 09:02 AM.

  96. #96

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Then add the fact that reserves are depleting, with businesses naturally depleting the lowest cost, highest margin reserves first, so the cost of oil has to rise unless technologies and discoveries somehow manage to bring down the costs on a scale on par with old low cost conventional oil reserve depletion.
    That has been proven throughout the entire history of oil and gas. Everytime somebody thinks that costs are going up to get the next lot of reserves, they barely do, because of technology. There are accounts now that shale production is a fraction of the price it was to produce just a few years ago before this crises hit - the attention of focus changed from production increase to cost reduction. There will never be an oil and gas shortage, only a small fraction of the worlds reserves have been tapped, and what were once difficult to obtain reserves are now readily available at a reasonable cost - it will only get cheaper as technology moves on even further. There may one-day be a transition away from it as our primary fuel source, but at the moment global demand is still growing not declining, that's what will drive a price rebound.

    As to pipelines, unsure about Keystone, but the TM pipeline should be in operation early 2020.
    Agree that there's lots of oil and gas. Similar situation with gold. i.e. There's no shortage of gold, just a shortage of cheap to mine gold. Everytime higher prices appear, crappy sources become economic and new technologies are inspired, funded and deployed leading to over production and crashing prices. Nonetheless, the cheapest easiest gold to mine will always be mined first then it's up to technology to find cheap ways to utilize crappy mines.

    The long term price of oil has been upward, but I'm not sure about it on a real basis vs nominal. Nonetheless, new very large reserves have to be able to produce at a price below Saudi Arabia's 80-cents a bbl price or whatever in order to replace it at a lower technologically based price. I don't see that happening, so the floor keeps rising.

    Shale was long known about and the technology took billions of dollars of government assistance (paid R&D, subsidies, tax credits, tax breaks, etc) to make it economic. Now technology is pushing down costs plus hard times are slamming down labour and contract rates. At some point these gains will flatline.
    Last edited by KC; 13-12-2016 at 09:16 AM.

  97. #97

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    2016 Oil Price Forecasts: Why Is Everyone Getting It Wrong
    By Peter Taberner - Oct 06, 2016,

    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Ge...-It-Wrong.html



    The Craziest Oil Price Predictions For 2017
    By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 22, 2016

    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Ge...201712879.html

  98. #98
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    The price for WTI at the close of trading on the NYMEX on December 30, 2016 was $53.72 US per barrel.

    How does this stack up against the predictions of C2E members made in early 2016? Drum roll please.

    grish $150
    JayBee $130
    EEDC_Brad $108.50
    Sabir $108.50
    kcantor $78.50
    Medwards $70
    hilman $69.69
    Loobs Peugot208 $65
    booster $65
    IanO $63.47
    Drumbones $60
    ChrisD $58
    Marcel Petrin $57
    The Cat $55
    KC $54
    WTI Closing $53.72
    Paul Turnbull $52
    East McCauley $51
    Greenspace $48.50
    Downtown $48.15
    blaine hamilton $48
    howie $46.55
    Kitlope $45
    Jagators $45
    GranaryMan $44.58
    moahunter $43
    Bill $42
    Stevey_G $40
    evaneo $35
    Sonic Death Monkey $32
    AShetsen $28.75

    Feel free to post if I missed your guess or reported it incorrectly.

    Barring any last minute appeals, the winner of the prestigious C2E oil price prognosticator of 2016 (drum roll please) is KC whose guess was remarkably within 28 cents of the actual closing price.

    Congratulations KC. It seems reading all those obscure publications you like to post from has value after all.

    I will open a new thread for 2017 guesses tomorrow.
    Last edited by East McCauley; 31-12-2016 at 12:42 PM. Reason: forgot Kitlope's guess

  99. #99
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    Thanks EM. Congratulations KC. Happy New Year! and Happy New Year to all C2Eers!!
    Last edited by Drumbones; 31-12-2016 at 01:27 PM.

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    Not bad, for a Cat.
    "Talk minus action equals zero." - Joe Keithley, D. O. A.

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