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Thread: Edmonton Office Market

  1. #1

    Default Edmonton Office Market

    The first quarter of 2015 saw negative absorption of 40,709 square
    feet, pushing total city-wide vacancy rates up to 10.60% from
    10.43% at the end of Q4 2014. This is only the second time since Q3
    2011 that overall absorption has been negative, and is the highest
    city-wide vacancy rate since Q4 2011.
    Colliers Edmonton Office Market Report Q1 2015

    Colliers Edmonton Skyline Report Q1 2015

  2. #2

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    What's the CBD vacancy?
    Let's make Edmonton better.

  3. #3

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    I have been looking for some retail space in the southside.

    A developer of a new project down there is asking for 45-47 sq/ft plus CAM for a grocery anchored CRU.

    LOL...Good luck with that, I'll check back in a year.

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
    What's the CBD vacancy?
    The most recent stats I have are Q4 2014.

    Q4 2014 Edmonton Office Stats

    It's showing a Financial District overall vacancy of 9.4%, but that breaks down as follows:
    • Class AA 12.4%
    • Class A 8.8%
    • Class A 6.8%
    • Class A 20.8%

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by burbs View Post
    I have been looking for some retail space in the southside.

    A developer of a new project down there is asking for 45-47 sq/ft plus CAM for a grocery anchored CRU.

    LOL...Good luck with that, I'll check back in a year.
    Southside is super expensive. You might want to consider Leduc.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vincent View Post
    The first quarter of 2015 saw negative absorption of 40,709 square
    feet, pushing total city-wide vacancy rates up to 10.60% from
    10.43% at the end of Q4 2014. This is only the second time since Q3
    2011 that overall absorption has been negative, and is the highest
    city-wide vacancy rate since Q4 2011.
    Colliers Edmonton Office Market Report Q1 2015

    Colliers Edmonton Skyline Report Q1 2015
    Probably only going to get worse as the shiny, new white elephants come to fruition over the next few years.
    "The only really positive thing one could say about Vancouver is, it’s not the rest of Canada." Oink (britishexpats.com)

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    As it does ^in every city at this point of the cycle.
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    ^^ You have a very positive attitude.
    The world is full of kings and queens, who blind your eyes then steal your dreams.
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    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Vincent View Post
    The first quarter of 2015 saw negative absorption of 40,709 square
    feet, pushing total city-wide vacancy rates up to 10.60% from
    10.43% at the end of Q4 2014. This is only the second time since Q3
    2011 that overall absorption has been negative, and is the highest
    city-wide vacancy rate since Q4 2011.
    Colliers Edmonton Office Market Report Q1 2015

    Colliers Edmonton Skyline Report Q1 2015
    Probably only going to get worse as the shiny, new white elephants come to fruition over the next few years.
    You are an *****....

  10. #10

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    Oh oh Expat hit a sore point....

    Don't ever question the ideology!

  11. #11

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    ???

    The ideology of retaining Stantec in Edmonton?

    Yeah that's pretty far out, isn't it?
    Let's make Edmonton better.

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    A 'balanced office' market vacancy is between 8-10%. Once rates are above 10% it becomes more of a tenants market. Vacancy rates <8% favours the landlords. This is the cycle of the office market. One also has to dive into the overall vacancy rate and peel out the type of space that is vacant. High quality new space is what the 'blue chip' companies are looking and paying for. So make of this as you want folks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Franky Knuckles View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Vincent View Post
    The first quarter of 2015 saw negative absorption of 40,709 square
    feet, pushing total city-wide vacancy rates up to 10.60% from
    10.43% at the end of Q4 2014. This is only the second time since Q3
    2011 that overall absorption has been negative, and is the highest
    city-wide vacancy rate since Q4 2011.
    Colliers Edmonton Office Market Report Q1 2015

    Colliers Edmonton Skyline Report Q1 2015
    Probably only going to get worse as the shiny, new white elephants come to fruition over the next few years.
    You are an *****....
    Oracle?
    "The only really positive thing one could say about Vancouver is, it’s not the rest of Canada." Oink (britishexpats.com)

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    Quote Originally Posted by burbs View Post
    I have been looking for some retail space in the southside.

    A developer of a new project down there is asking for 45-47 sq/ft plus CAM for a grocery anchored CRU.

    LOL...Good luck with that, I'll check back in a year.
    that might be a little high depending on the size and location of the space and the overall deal within which it was being offered (rent is only part of the equation for both the landlord and the tenant) but it isn't completely out of line either.

    and even if that rent is $5 psf high, on 1,000 sf that's $13.70 per day. you're not going to save that by waiting a year even if the rent comes down by that in a year. not if you've lost a year's profit over the same year.

    if your business model requires rents to be much less than that in order to be viable, you should be looking to acquire older space - ether shopping centre or streetfront - not new space in a grocery anchored centre.
    "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

  15. #15

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    Thought I saw Donald Trump this morning on 106 Street. He was driving a BMW convertable.

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    Edmonton offices seeing higher vacancy rates as more supply coming online
    http://metronews.ca/news/edmonton/14...coming-online/

    Office space in Edmonton is growing at a breakneck pace, with almost 100,000 square feet more available now than at the start of the year and a vacancy rate that has already eclipsed 11 per cent.

    Leasing agents Colliers International released a report to Metro that shows — counting the space that’s been leased against new space on the market — 97,763 more square feet available in the Edmonton region this year, including an additional 8,466 square feet in the downtown core.

    But what has some predicting a “bloodbath” in office property is what’s coming: projects like the Kelly Ramsey building, the City of Edmonton office tower and the Stantec Tower, all set to open in the years ahead.

    Those new projects will add about 1.7-million square feet of office space to Edmonton over the next three or four years as the projects open up.

    By comparison, Toronto added 1.6-million square feet of office space in 2014, when its office vacancy rate was hovering around 5 per cent.

    Regardless, Mayor Don Iveson said the increasing space is not a major concern.

    “It’s natural fluctuations in the market. What we’re seeing is that when vacancies do go up landlords are actually investing in their properties,” he said.

    Colliers vice president Ian Bradley said landlords will be forced to improve their properties if they want to attract tenants.

    Bradley is the leasing agent for 9888 Jasper, a renovated property that’s re-opening on Jasper and 99 Street. He said that building has leased most of its new space, but only after extensive upgrades that gave the building a LEED gold certification.

    “That is a signal to any perspective tenant that you have a progressive landlord that is spending money on new buildings,” he said.

    Bradley predicted that office landlords are going to face hard times if they don’t invest in improvements.
    “You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012

  17. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cod Father View Post
    Thought I saw Donald Trump this morning on 106 Street. He was driving a BMW convertable.
    I think he's a little too busy right now trying to get elected.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sonic Death Monkey View Post
    Edmonton offices seeing higher vacancy rates as more supply coming online
    http://metronews.ca/news/edmonton/14...coming-online/
    ...
    in a similar vein from this morning's journal (other than the typo which should show them as taking space on the 14th floor):

    "Ernst & Young is relocating to the Epcor Tower, landlord Qualico Commercial said Wednesday.

    "The financial services firm is moving into 20,500 square feet on the 12th floor of the tower in February. Its Edmonton office is currently at Telus House.

    "The tower, the first phase of the Station Lands development, was the first office tower in the downtown in more than 20 years when it opened in 2011
    ."

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/searc...294/story.html
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    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sonic Death Monkey View Post
    Edmonton offices seeing higher vacancy rates as more supply coming online
    http://metronews.ca/news/edmonton/14...coming-online/
    ...
    in a similar vein from this morning's journal (other than the typo which should show them as taking space on the 14th floor):

    "Ernst & Young is relocating to the Epcor Tower, landlord Qualico Commercial said Wednesday.

    "The financial services firm is moving into 20,500 square feet on the 12th floor of the tower in February. Its Edmonton office is currently at Telus House.

    "The tower, the first phase of the Station Lands development, was the first office tower in the downtown in more than 20 years when it opened in 2011
    ."

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/searc...294/story.html
    What's the net gain in take up in this particular round of musical chairs?..
    "The only really positive thing one could say about Vancouver is, it’s not the rest of Canada." Oink (britishexpats.com)

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    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sonic Death Monkey View Post
    Edmonton offices seeing higher vacancy rates as more supply coming online
    http://metronews.ca/news/edmonton/14...coming-online/
    ...
    in a similar vein from this morning's journal (other than the typo which should show them as taking space on the 14th floor):

    "Ernst & Young is relocating to the Epcor Tower, landlord Qualico Commercial said Wednesday.

    "The financial services firm is moving into 20,500 square feet on the 12th floor of the tower in February. Its Edmonton office is currently at Telus House.

    "The tower, the first phase of the Station Lands development, was the first office tower in the downtown in more than 20 years when it opened in 2011
    ."

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/searc...294/story.html
    What's the net gain in take up in this particular round of musical chairs?..
    the net gain for us is 20,500 sf.

    the difference between the total area of their old and their new spaces is not substantial - the big change is in the quality and the efficiency of their space.
    "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sonic Death Monkey View Post
    Edmonton offices seeing higher vacancy rates as more supply coming online
    http://metronews.ca/news/edmonton/14...coming-online/

    Office space in Edmonton is growing at a breakneck pace, with almost 100,000 square feet more available now than at the start of the year and a vacancy rate that has already eclipsed 11 per cent.

    Leasing agents Colliers International released a report to Metro that shows — counting the space that’s been leased against new space on the market — 97,763 more square feet available in the Edmonton region this year, including an additional 8,466 square feet in the downtown core.

    But what has some predicting a “bloodbath” in office property is what’s coming: projects like the Kelly Ramsey building, the City of Edmonton office tower and the Stantec Tower, all set to open in the years ahead.

    Those new projects will add about 1.7-million square feet of office space to Edmonton over the next three or four years as the projects open up.

    By comparison, Toronto added 1.6-million square feet of office space in 2014, when its office vacancy rate was hovering around 5 per cent.

    Regardless, Mayor Don Iveson said the increasing space is not a major concern.

    “It’s natural fluctuations in the market. What we’re seeing is that when vacancies do go up landlords are actually investing in their properties,” he said.

    Colliers vice president Ian Bradley said landlords will be forced to improve their properties if they want to attract tenants.

    Bradley is the leasing agent for 9888 Jasper, a renovated property that’s re-opening on Jasper and 99 Street. He said that building has leased most of its new space, but only after extensive upgrades that gave the building a LEED gold certification.

    “That is a signal to any perspective tenant that you have a progressive landlord that is spending money on new buildings,” he said.

    Bradley predicted that office landlords are going to face hard times if they don’t invest in improvements.

    You missed a bit..

    “Their vacancies haven’t totally materialized yet, but they’re coming and it’s going to be a bit of a bloodbath,” he said.

    He said the new building proposed for the downtown will open a lot of space and the market will take time to fill it.

    “That is 1.7 million square feet of new supply and in a good year we have positive absorption of 200,00 square feet.”
    "The only really positive thing one could say about Vancouver is, it’s not the rest of Canada." Oink (britishexpats.com)

  22. #22

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    We all knew the vacancy rate was going to increase with all these new buildings. So, barring a miracle, it'll be another ten years before we see another building. I'm o.k. with that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sonic Death Monkey View Post
    Edmonton offices seeing higher vacancy rates as more supply coming online
    http://metronews.ca/news/edmonton/14...coming-online/

    Office space in Edmonton is growing at a breakneck pace, with almost 100,000 square feet more available now than at the start of the year and a vacancy rate that has already eclipsed 11 per cent.

    Leasing agents Colliers International released a report to Metro that shows — counting the space that’s been leased against new space on the market — 97,763 more square feet available in the Edmonton region this year, including an additional 8,466 square feet in the downtown core.

    But what has some predicting a “bloodbath” in office property is what’s coming: projects like the Kelly Ramsey building, the City of Edmonton office tower and the Stantec Tower, all set to open in the years ahead.

    Those new projects will add about 1.7-million square feet of office space to Edmonton over the next three or four years as the projects open up.

    By comparison, Toronto added 1.6-million square feet of office space in 2014, when its office vacancy rate was hovering around 5 per cent.

    Regardless, Mayor Don Iveson said the increasing space is not a major concern.

    “It’s natural fluctuations in the market. What we’re seeing is that when vacancies do go up landlords are actually investing in their properties,” he said.

    Colliers vice president Ian Bradley said landlords will be forced to improve their properties if they want to attract tenants.

    Bradley is the leasing agent for 9888 Jasper, a renovated property that’s re-opening on Jasper and 99 Street. He said that building has leased most of its new space, but only after extensive upgrades that gave the building a LEED gold certification.

    “That is a signal to any perspective tenant that you have a progressive landlord that is spending money on new buildings,” he said.

    Bradley predicted that office landlords are going to face hard times if they don’t invest in improvements.

    You missed a bit..

    “Their vacancies haven’t totally materialized yet, but they’re coming and it’s going to be a bit of a bloodbath,” he said.

    He said the new building proposed for the downtown will open a lot of space and the market will take time to fill it.

    “That is 1.7 million square feet of new supply and in a good year we have positive absorption of 200,00 square feet.”
    you're missing a bit yourself...

    first, as noted, it will be 3 - 4 years yet before those new buildings are even complete.

    second, it's not those new buildings that will be vacant. the upcoming vacancy will be in the backfill space as those tenants committed to the new buildings complete their moves.

    third, as noted, the landlord's of those newly vacated buildings will have to improve their properties in order to attract tenants, something that is likely to take an additional 2 years.

    so we have a total of 6 - 7 years for that "looming vacancy" to come to market. a market where 200,000 sf of absorption is a realistic average. which comes to 1.2 - 1.4 million sf of that 1.7 million in total. and some of that backfill is likely to be converted to other uses which means there is enough "looming demand" to take up pretty much all of that "looming vacancy".

    but go ahead... panic if you choose. my own guess is that at the end of the day this will all be as anti-climactic as the much bally-hooed "epcor effect" which was the doom and gloom of the day in 2007.
    "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

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    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    you're missing a bit yourself...

    first, as noted, it will be 3 - 4 years yet before those new buildings are even complete.

    second, it's not those new buildings that will be vacant. the upcoming vacancy will be in the backfill space as those tenants committed to the new buildings complete their moves.

    third, as noted, the landlord's of those newly vacated buildings will have to improve their properties in order to attract tenants, something that is likely to take an additional 2 years.

    so we have a total of 6 - 7 years for that "looming vacancy" to come to market. a market where 200,000 sf of absorption is a realistic average. which comes to 1.2 - 1.4 million sf of that 1.7 million in total. and some of that backfill is likely to be converted to other uses which means there is enough "looming demand" to take up pretty much all of that "looming vacancy".

    but go ahead... panic if you choose. my own guess is that at the end of the day this will all be as anti-climactic as the much bally-hooed "epcor effect" which was the doom and gloom of the day in 2007.
    Didn't say it was.

    The rest relies on a lot of ifs and buts, ignores Edmonton's inability to attract new business and takes no account of the inevitable addition of vacancy due to the coming downturn/recession.

    I appreciate it's your job to talk your book, but even you must be a little uneasy about what's around the corner.
    Last edited by expat; 09-07-2015 at 05:56 PM.
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    One thing that might work for Edmonton could be attracting prospective federal government agencies.
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  26. #26

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    ^^ I don't own an outdated and uncompetitive office building, ergo what do I care?

    All I care about is that Downtown is going to look and feel great - for workers, residents, students and other visitors inclusive. These new towers will be huge steps in worker comfort, streetscape life, and skyline appearance.

    Still some work to do, but zero concern in that regard due to these new towers. Exactly the opposite.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

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    Better too much space than not enough. Now if we could just figure out a way to have too much residential rental apartment space that would be great. Renters need a break from the astronomical high rents.

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    Wonder what knock on effect this will have on Edmonton further on down the line?

    As oil prices plummet, Calgary's vacant office space soars

    Energy companies already grappling with the sharp drop in crude prices are confronting a new problem: finding tenants to lease a glut of unused office space...

    ...Companies are seeking to lease a record 2.6 million square feet of office space, amounting to 52 per cent of downtown vacancies as of June 30, according to Colliers International.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle25610756/
    "The only really positive thing one could say about Vancouver is, it’s not the rest of Canada." Oink (britishexpats.com)

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    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    Wonder what knock on effect this will have on Edmonton further on down the line?
    I don't think much direct effect. The two cities have very, very different office markets.

  30. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    Wonder what knock on effect this will have on Edmonton further on down the line?

    As oil prices plummet, Calgary's vacant office space soars

    Energy companies already grappling with the sharp drop in crude prices are confronting a new problem: finding tenants to lease a glut of unused office space...

    ...Companies are seeking to lease a record 2.6 million square feet of office space, amounting to 52 per cent of downtown vacancies as of June 30, according to Colliers International.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle25610756/
    Wow. That's bigger than South Edmonton Common!

    Edit - if a Calgary company had been considering moving North, I expect this makes that decision harder. Likewise if a company from elsewhere were considering Alberta, on office space alone Calgary would be more competitive (although we are on target to definitively pass them on livability by 2020 or earlier. )
    Last edited by JayBee; 22-07-2015 at 04:24 PM.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JayBee View Post

    Wow. That's bigger than South Edmonton Common!
    And that's before this...

    Today, the market is reeling, lease rates have plummeted and new construction threatens to exacerbate a glut of supply.

    The average rental rate for so-called Class A buildings fell to $26 a square foot in the second quarter, down from $28 in the first quarter of 2015, according to Colliers. At the same time, nearly four million square feet of new space will hit the market by 2018 – the result of a building boom that started long before oil prices hit the skids.
    "The only really positive thing one could say about Vancouver is, it’s not the rest of Canada." Oink (britishexpats.com)

  32. #32

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    ^ the SEC-sized block is just the stuff available for sublease too, the total existing vacancy is the size of WEM!

    I can't see how Brookfield reaches its planned height now.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

  33. #33

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    We've seen this before. A few years from now they won't have enough office space and more towers will be announced.

  34. #34

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    ^ Maybe, but the times we saw it before, Edmonton wasn't prepared to compete...
    Let's make Edmonton better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vincent View Post
    We've seen this before. A few years from now they won't have enough office space and more towers will be announced.
    Cycles people, cycles.
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  36. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    Wonder what knock on effect this will have on Edmonton further on down the line?
    I don't think much direct effect. The two cities have very, very different office markets.
    Commercial Real Estate



    What economic downturn? Edmonton building permit values soar

    EDMONTON - Despite Alberta’s economic doldrums, Edmonton’s construction industry appears to still be booming.
    The City of Edmonton issued building permits worth almost $2.4 billion in construction value in the first six months of this year for commercial, residential, industrial and institutional work. That’s a 14-per-cent increase from the same period last year and a 33-per-cent increase over the five-year average.
    The value of the building permits is “close” to setting a record, said Garry Dziwenka, acting branch manager of current planning for the city.








    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/busin...573/story.html
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
    Wow. That's bigger than South Edmonton Common!

    Edit - if a Calgary company had been considering moving North, I expect this makes that decision harder. Likewise if a company from elsewhere were considering Alberta, on office space alone Calgary would be more competitive (although we are on target to definitively pass them on livability by 2020 or earlier. )
    Or, if an Edmonton based Co. was considering flying south, could a more incentivized market down there help tip the balance?
    "The only really positive thing one could say about Vancouver is, it’s not the rest of Canada." Oink (britishexpats.com)

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    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
    Wow. That's bigger than South Edmonton Common!

    Edit - if a Calgary company had been considering moving North, I expect this makes that decision harder. Likewise if a company from elsewhere were considering Alberta, on office space alone Calgary would be more competitive (although we are on target to definitively pass them on livability by 2020 or earlier. )
    Or, if an Edmonton based Co. was considering flying south, could a more incentivized market down there help tip the balance?
    take a look at most financial statements... rent as a proportionate expense barely shows up.
    "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

  39. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
    Wow. That's bigger than South Edmonton Common!

    Edit - if a Calgary company had been considering moving North, I expect this makes that decision harder. Likewise if a company from elsewhere were considering Alberta, on office space alone Calgary would be more competitive (although we are on target to definitively pass them on livability by 2020 or earlier. )
    Or, if an Edmonton based Co. was considering flying south, could a more incentivized market down there help tip the balance?
    I suspect so. Sobey's just did. But only as a tip of the balance. There would have to be other reasons.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

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    Safeway may have owned the building that their head office was in in Calgary.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
    Wow. That's bigger than South Edmonton Common!

    Edit - if a Calgary company had been considering moving North, I expect this makes that decision harder. Likewise if a company from elsewhere were considering Alberta, on office space alone Calgary would be more competitive (although we are on target to definitively pass them on livability by 2020 or earlier. )
    Or, if an Edmonton based Co. was considering flying south, could a more incentivized market down there help tip the balance?
    take a look at most financial statements... rent as a proportionate expense barely shows up.
    Hence my "tip the balance" reference... That said, the longer the downturn runs on, the closer the bean counters will be scrutinizing the statements for any possible reductions.
    "The only really positive thing one could say about Vancouver is, it’s not the rest of Canada." Oink (britishexpats.com)

  42. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by SP59 View Post
    Safeway may have owned the building that their head office was in in Calgary.
    And if the Calgary office market justified it, they might have considered selling it.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

  43. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
    Wow. That's bigger than South Edmonton Common!

    Edit - if a Calgary company had been considering moving North, I expect this makes that decision harder. Likewise if a company from elsewhere were considering Alberta, on office space alone Calgary would be more competitive (although we are on target to definitively pass them on livability by 2020 or earlier. )
    Or, if an Edmonton based Co. was considering flying south, could a more incentivized market down there help tip the balance?
    take a look at most financial statements... rent as a proportionate expense barely shows up.
    Hence my "tip the balance" reference... That said, the longer the downturn runs on, the closer the bean counters will be scrutinizing the statements for any possible reductions.
    unless you're prepared to move your offices back and forth time after time and think you can guarantee both your lease expiries and the availability of space and labour in the alternate market, short term fluctuations in the market (and this is what we're dealing with) won't "tip the balance".

    the other costs involved in a move - particularly the costs of moving and/or acquiring a new labour force - far outweigh any perceived potential short term savings in rents.
    "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

  44. #44
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    ^No one is suggesting they would go back and forth? History seems to suggest that once companies decide, for what ever reason, to go south the seem to stay there.

    Another interesting point you raise is the labour market. With the current rounds of layoffs in Calgary there is, one assumes, a keen and motivated talent base looking for the right opportunities?

    Still, I bow to your expertise in these matters, and am glad you see no need for concern.
    "The only really positive thing one could say about Vancouver is, it’s not the rest of Canada." Oink (britishexpats.com)

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    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    ^No one is suggesting they would go back and forth? History seems to suggest that once companies decide, for what ever reason, to go south the seem to stay there.

    Another interesting point you raise is the labour market. With the current rounds of layoffs in Calgary there is, one assumes, a keen and motivated talent base looking for the right opportunities?

    Still, I bow to your expertise in these matters, and am glad you see no need for concern.
    "concern" and "chicken little sky is falling, panic in the streets, it's the end of the world as we know it..." are two very different things.
    "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

  46. #46

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    Calgary's mass of office space in various ways does pencil them in as 'default', although a large portion of the white collar workforce is much more mobile (than the office space).

    In the past what would happen is at the next up cycle, everyone and everything goes back to Calgary, but during this cycle, for "an amount" of the white collar sector, there can be pause for considering Edmonton when the pendulum comes back to Alberta. We need to focus on being prepared as a place white collar workers would prefer to land:

    1. The suburbs are fine
    2. Air service is making great progress.
    3. Roads are less congested.
    4. LRT is way behind.
    5. Post-secondary is better.
    6. Primary and secondary is worse.
    7. Downtown environs are mixed bag:
    • Culture, arts, and entertainment are better.
    • High density residential is way behind.
    • Vacant office space, while smaller scale, now will have good options for most levels.
    • Downtown retail is way way behind.
    • Conference facilities are getting there.
    • Mental and physical health issues are in places and causing issues that they wouldn't be if we cared for them properly.


    Focus on the weaknesses, enhance the strengths, be ready for the next up cycle. I believe we will stop losing, and may even gain, proportionally.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

  47. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    ^No one is suggesting they would go back and forth? History seems to suggest that once companies decide, for what ever reason, to go south the seem to stay there.

    Another interesting point you raise is the labour market. With the current rounds of layoffs in Calgary there is, one assumes, a keen and motivated talent base looking for the right opportunities?

    Still, I bow to your expertise in these matters, and am glad you see no need for concern.
    "concern" and "chicken little sky is falling, panic in the streets, it's the end of the world as we know it..." are two very different things.
    Don't see anyone on this thread suggesting that yet?.. Maybe you know something we don't?
    "The only really positive thing one could say about Vancouver is, it’s not the rest of Canada." Oink (britishexpats.com)

  48. #48

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    Summary

    Overall, the downtown Financial District reported a positive net absorption of 30,635 square feet; however, the vacancy rate remained virtually unchanged as the total inventory increased by 26,760 square feet through a repositioning project. Positive absorption was reported in Class AA (20,318 SF), Class A (6,811 SF) and Class C (5,971 SF), while Class B (-2,465 SF) reported the only negative absorption over the quarter.

    And just to compare Edmonton to the rest of the country...

    Summary
    • Vancouver's vacancy rate jumped from 5.8% to 8.6%
    • Calgary's vacancy rate jumped from 8.2% to 12.8%.
    • Edmonton's vacancy rate jumped from 8.7% to 9.5%
    • Toronto's vacancy rate dropped from 3.6% to 2.6%
    • Ottawa's vacancy rate jumped from 9.5% to 9.9%
    • Montreal's vacancy rate dropped from 5.9% to 5.0%

  49. #49

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    So looking at the skyline report Vincent kindly linked, ceteris paribus (ha ha ha)...


    Post CoE Tower (2016):
    1. Only HSBC tower would be over half empty
    2. CN not even half empty
    3. Scotia Plaza hardly affected at all. (???)
    4. Chancery Hall unlikely to remain on the office market.


    Post Kelly-Ramsey (also 2016)
    1. Enbridge Tower zero.
    2. Enbridge Place zero.
    3. Commerce Place Mall liberated (Simons would look sweet on Jasper. )


    Post Stantec Tower (2018 ):
    1. Stantec Technology Centre zero.
    2. Devonian Building 90% empty.
    3. Old Centre Club liberated. (could be a very attractive large scale restaurant location.)



    Meaning again all else equal for the next four to six years (ha ha ha) 5 major A-Class office holes and two exciting large retail prospects added to the mix. Not too overwhelming, I think. Healthily attractive overall, nice large blocks for smaller players to consider consolidating.

    I think Atco choosing the ex-Enbridge buildings would be unlikely. Scotia Centre looks nearly impossible. Either 10405 Jasper (what we used to call the Standard Life Building) makes some incremental expansion space for them or its potentially another new build.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

  50. #50
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    Lots of opportunity.
    www.decl.org

    Ottawa-Edmonton-Vancouver-Edmonton

  51. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
    So looking at the skyline report Vincent kindly linked, ceteris paribus (ha ha ha)...




    Post Stantec Tower (2018 ):
    1. Stantec Technology Centre zero.
    2. Devonian Building 90% empty.
    3. Old Centre Club liberated. (could be a very attractive large scale restaurant location.)


    Also some of the upcoming vacancy in Bell Tower would be Stantec, no? I'm not sure if they have significant space there or not.

  52. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by KevinW View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by JayBee View Post
    So looking at the skyline report Vincent kindly linked, ceteris paribus (ha ha ha)...




    Post Stantec Tower (2018 ):
    1. Stantec Technology Centre zero.
    2. Devonian Building 90% empty.
    3. Old Centre Club liberated. (could be a very attractive large scale restaurant location.)


    Also some of the upcoming vacancy in Bell Tower would be Stantec, no? I'm not sure if they have significant space there or not.
    That's the old center club.

  53. #53

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    ^ I hate that building, it does absolutely nothing for the street.
    Edmonton first, everything else second.

  54. #54
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    How the hell did people get into the Centre Club building when Doucette's restaurant was there? I hope a couple of street level entrances are built. The Ice District should spur something getting filled there, likely a retailer or a restaurant.

    According to Aspen's website, Stantec is occupying 57.25 sq ft - is that the entire size of the Centre Club building?
    “You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012

  55. #55

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    ^ I believe so.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

  56. #56

    Default Q1 2016 Update

    The first quarter of 2016 ended with negative 85,130 square
    feet of net absorption, marking the fifth quarter in a row of
    negative net absorption for the City and pushing vacancy rates
    up slightly from 11.78% to 12.01%.
    ...
    Manulife Place and Bell Tower are responsible for the negative
    absorption reported in Financial Class AA (-48,078 SF). SciQuest
    is closing their Edmonton office, leaving 24,609 square feet
    vacant on the 3rd floor of Manulife. Within Bell Tower, one new
    sublease was brought onto the market (Sierra Systems for 14,159
    square feet), and The Law Society of Alberta is closing their
    office, vacating 14,180 square feet.
    Colliers - Edmonton Office Market Report Q1 2016
    Colliers - Edmonton Office Skyline Report Q1 2016
    Colliers - Edmonton Office Statistics Q1 2016

  57. #57

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    Hmmmmmn.

    That third level space in Manulife always seemed like it could be converted to retail. In a way it was retail at one point, with airline ticket sales.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

  58. #58

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    Is there escalator access to that third level?

  59. #59

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    ^ not presently.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

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