...according to Stats Canada;
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...26a002-eng.htm
We grew by 140 000 in the past year
Albera's Population Tops 4 million
...according to Stats Canada;
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...26a002-eng.htm
We grew by 140 000 in the past year
AB growth rate of over 3%... wow!
3.4 is that even sustainable?
we are on schedule to be at 5 mill before 2020
In the short term it's sustainable Medwards...but in order for it to be so we have to keep building!
"Do you give people who already use transit a better service, or do you build it where they don't use it in the hopes they might start to use it?" Nenshi
Only if the oil based economy keeps strong.Originally Posted by Medwards
If I remember correctly Alberta saw similar growth in the late 70s and early 80s with similar problems we are facing now with rising costs, housing demands etc.
When the oil industry crashed it reversed frighteningly fast.
Without the oil industry our economy is not diverse enough to sustain this type of growth.
IN my highly biased personal opinion
We are going to pass BC in a few years at this rate
I don't think it's realistic to expect Alberta to keep growing so fast or for BC to grow so slowly. More realistic numbers:
Alberta: 4,025,000 x 1.025^10 = 5,152,000
BC: 4,543,000 x 1.015^10 = 5,272,000
Play around with the numbers if you'd like, but I doubt it'll happen much more quickly than 10 years, and a lot can happen in 10 years.
I read somewhere, sorry can't find the link, at this rate we will reach 5 mil before B.C. However that is a big if. The situation is a lot different than before with the geopolitical situation being what it is, the rise of the Asian economies and no NEP on the horizon. But who knows if another Trudeau will get elected.
“Canada is the only country in the world that knows how to live without an identity,”-Marshall McLuhan
^ correct 2020
"Do you give people who already use transit a better service, or do you build it where they don't use it in the hopes they might start to use it?" Nenshi
Besides the oil industry, another factor is immigration from near and far. Even after the mass migration from Hong Kong, Vancouver and the Lower Mainland still had an influx of immigrants from across the ocean. The Okanagan and the Island are still favorite places for retirees to relocate to.
“You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012
SDM
Specifically to Vancouver IslandThe Okanagan and the Island are still favorite places for retirees to relocate to.
I have family on the Island and due to a death in the family was there this past January. As usual lots of talk to fill the gaps in such a situation.
From that:
Vancouver Island and the lower mainland are not the retirement hot beds they used to be.
Extreme cost of living, tough to get staff in a service based economy and property prices are sagging (still nuts, but have dropped).
They are feeling the effects of the slowing retirement influx.
In my highly biased personal opinion
Alberta’s population topped the magic four-million mark July 1: report
Edmonton Journal:
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/...079/story.html
“By all accounts this growth is extraordinary, outpacing even the robust growth rates of the mid 2000s boom years,” the report says.
Last edited by The13thFloor; 26-09-2013 at 12:32 PM.
From employment point of view, the migration to our province is primarily ontario. The west energy sector, anchored by alberta, is where you want to be- particuliarly Edmonton. The east coast has a boom of their own- NFLD in the offshore oil, and NS with the shipping contract and offshore oil. That leaves the huge population in between migrating here- employment.
Regarding BC, i personally think there may be an influx of exodusses soon. The regular working class can no longer afford to live there- Van has become a world top ten real estate paradign. Anywhere along the coast is unaffordable, the interior region-kelowna etc - is also getting out of hand. I have slowly witness this trend the last three year with trade workers across the board from up north. BC will still attract migration but mostly from foreign upper class and high mid-class income.
Amazing growth ! A couple of fundamental things I see happening. Now we are getting a direct flow of immigrants, that did not really happen before at least since the settling of the west. Immigrants tended to focus on Toronto and Vancouver . This will have many effects ( better overseas air service will be one good one).
We have long attracted a youthful population . See if you agree with me here: I am noticing that the baby boom echo generation is starting to get married and have kids . As we have a disproportionate and employed population in this group we can expect more of this growth and the demands this entails.
Take a walk through your local large apartment complex parking lots. You will be bound to see the license plates of new arrivals to take part in the Alberta economy which is better than at home
( again they a generally young group) I see a lot of BC, Ontario and Quebec plates.
I concur with Toms observation about retirees resistant to move. After the last recession a lot of people were stung and there has been a fear to leave employment and actually retire to a leisure lifestyle . Eventually this fear will ebb will and the numbers will be large as this predicable migration has been deferred.
It is my sincere hope that the energy and the vitality of the population will be able to provide diversity and a critical mass to the economy that allows it to grow in all and brand new directions.
The irrationality of this statement is actually frightening.
Trudeau had NOTHING to do with the bust -- global demand and Alberta's desire to get world prices for its product did the trick.
I'm not much of a Justin fan, but a perverse side of me wants him to get in with as large a majority as possible, just so to see how many of the complex-ridden coots, many of whom weren't even around in the 1970s, can drop dead from fright at the prospect.
Bingo. People here seem to have very short memories or not be old enough to appreciate how these boom/bust cycles can change things almost overnight...Only if the oil based economy keeps strong.
If I remember correctly Alberta saw similar growth in the late 70s and early 80s with similar problems we are facing now with rising costs, housing demands etc.
When the oil industry crashed it reversed frighteningly fast.
Without the oil industry our economy is not diverse enough to sustain this type of growth.
IN my highly biased personal opinion
Definitely something for us to stay cognizant of. The difference with this boom to past, in my view, is this... The boom of the 70s-80's was driven by the power of America where as this boom is led by multiple nations desiring growth.
1. China's growth over the last 3 decades+ caters to roughly 20-30% of population. With roughly 800-900 mils still desiring.
2. India has commenced their economic rival 10 yrs ago and with the same population as china. We can easily put the pieces together here...
3. South America, led by Brazil and Argentina is also leading a charge for economic prosperity.
4. Globally, this is evident everywhere.
I don't fear a bust, but im concern with our ability to manage. We need leaders to focus on pragmatic and responsible guidence to our resources.
As long as those issues are covered and nurtured, Alberta's population will continue to flourish. The 2000-08 boom saw ultra greed causing inflation to skyrocket faster than we can blink.
This time, we need to set stability and in doing so, prosperity overall will just coast; doing so will be a win win right across the board and present other opportunities such as attracting head offices to our city.
My guess is that Metro Edmonton is approaching 1.3 million and the city is approaching 900,000 residents. I've looked at StatsCan and other data and Edmonton and Calgary are growing faster than the 3.5% provincial average. That means about 30,000 new residents per year in the city.
"Talk minus action equals zero." - Joe Keithley, D. O. A.
Great news!
One factor isn't being discussed is global warming (yes, it is happening indeed!) and the northward movement of the agricultural frontier and opening up of northern AB to further mineral exploitation. Coupled with retirement of the boomer generation, it will mean more newcomers (both from abroad and other provinces) and a steady growth in our population. We may surpass BC in 15-29 yrs, I won't be surprised.
As for the Trudeau effect, fear not- both the LPC and provincial PCs are looking to supply eastern Canadians with AB's oil (if nothing else it would reduce our unhealthy dependence on the US market- I'm hoping Keystone is killed and Northern Gateway is approved).
All in all, it will exciting times over the next few decades!
^ Agreed Exciting times. Edmonton has yet to really assert its position as the Northernmost Major city in North America. It is on its way and has a population demographic to drive it.
I don't foresee the chance of any old Trudeau style measures happening against the west again. The west is more on guard and has more clout economically and politically . A lot of the nations profitable companies are now head quartered in the west , World markets have shifted to the pacific.
One interesting thing that will change the west will be the eventual changing of the BC Mindset from socialist to more conservative leaning. The Immigrant vote will establish its self , currently this is not reflected in the elected members , at some point it will . In addition well off retirees will flood into the province . To follow suit , In northern BC when the land claims are settled the First Nations will court development to fill the coffers.
With a growing and educated and skilled population there is an exciting course to chart. Right now we are fueled by oil money . This can and will be transitioned over the long term . We have to remember that we were founded by the Fur trade and we have survived and grown astronomically since then.
^Despite the mythology that has been spun, the NEP of the 1980-82 period had only short-term and limited impacts on Edmonton's economy compared to the collapse of global oil prices that endured (with peaks and troughs) from the mid-1980s to the late 1990s. Link: http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif
The biggest threat to the Alberta economy is not an NEP type policy. Rather it is the rapid development of unconventional sources of light crude oil and natural gas (e.g. in shale or sand formations) combined with a possible outbreak of relative stability in major oil producing countries. For example, while Iraq has been ramping up production, global oil supplies have been held back by sanctions against Iran and civil strife affecting Libyan oil production. And should Venezuela ever get its act together, watch out.
Then you would agree that it would be better to get the Keystone pipeline established with long term supply contracts , before the potential of Venezuela getting its act together ?
Your link does not work.
The NEP was not a myth. It really happened. Even the two years that it had it's greatest impact was absolutely devastating to the economy especially Edmonton.
Dealing with the world supply and demand for oil is a lot easier to cope with than some arbitrary idealistic social engineering policy that is unpredictable. Yes there was a double whammy but you always know that commodities have a cycle. With Trudeau you never new what he was going to do. How demoralizing is that?
“Canada is the only country in the world that knows how to live without an identity,”-Marshall McLuhan
O god.. Don't try to take away every true albertans Raison d'ętre.
This will turn ugly
"Do you give people who already use transit a better service, or do you build it where they don't use it in the hopes they might start to use it?" Nenshi
^^Never said the NEP was a myth. Said a lot of mythology has been spun around it, including conflating the NEP of the 1980 to 1982 period with the much more damaging collapse in world oil prices that started in the mid-1980s and lasted into the late 1990s. The federal/provincial energy agreement which basically ended the NEP was signed in September 1981 (which resulted in the famous photo of Trudeau and Lougheed clinking champagne glasses).
The Edmonton and Alberta economy was still humming along in the 1980 to 1982 period despite the well-publicized rush of oil rigs across the US border. Alberta's population growth in 1980 was 4.5%, in 1981 was 4.6%, and in 1982 was 3.4% (CANSIM Table 051-0001). This is higher or the same yearly growth rate as the 3.4% growth rate that got so much media play this week.
If the previous link doesn't work, try this one instead: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm. Or just google 'historical world oil prices' and it is the first entry.
As usual your flippant callous attitude towards the agony people really suffered can be dismissed with one trite comment. Keep it up you are bound to make lots of friends.O god.. Don't try to take away every true albertans Raison d'ętre.
This will turn ugly
Now back on topic.
“Canada is the only country in the world that knows how to live without an identity,”-Marshall McLuhan
Not to be flippant, but I wish people would get over the NEP already. That was 30 years ago, and the people who brought it in are dead or nearly dead. Not saying we shouldn't be vigilant against any repeats of such schemes. But nearly 15 years of Liberal Chretien/Martin rule didn't see any similar schemes hatched, nor has any federal party even been considering it as far as I know. So this long-dead bogeyman should no longer be an excuse for Albertans to vote the way they do.
“You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012
^^ as of right now, Many Albertans doesn't want to hear anything about NEP anymore and they just want to move on with their lives.
but as for me, I knew pretty much about NEP when I was living in Ontario back in the early 80's.
Edmonton Rocks Rocks Rocks
Considering I am one of those who bailed out of BC in 2008 and have since ran into many other people including family members and friends originally from Alberta who have moved back to their home province after decades in B.C, Not "totally" linked to the booming economy here but the cost of living in B.C is so out of step with most people's incomes people with the ability to cross the Rockies are doing so.
My nephew born and raised in West Kelowna now in Fort Mac via Calgary,
Friends I have now known for decades back in Edmonton, Calgary, Lethbridge, Red Deer.
Also several people I know still in Vancouver are seriously thinking about either returning to the prairies or moving here even though B.C is their home province. It mostly comes down to cost of living....
I have noticed a large number of BC plates on cars recently commuting in and around the city during morning or evening rush hours that is another hint of a much faster population growth at their expense.
Just as Saskatchewan is attracting some Albertans to return to their home province for lower living costs, Alberta is having a similar effect on B.C.
I have no idea what is Edmonton's city population so far this year ??
Edmonton Rocks Rocks Rocks
Last week in the Edmonton Journal a insert listed Greater Edmonton at according to Census Canada estimates as around 1,259,000 now for July 1 2013.
And honestly with the huge increase of traffic, housing and businesses flocking in this is probably not far off the mark.
Things always go in circles, for decades Edmonton was the population/economic/political powerhouse in the province, Calgary passed us in regards to population and growth (but not too much as per percentage rates) and now with the projects in the North ramping up again Edmonton is actually recapturing the "attraction" quality that Calgary managed to snatch away when Ralph Klein was premier favouring his hometown over Alberta's capital.
While the rivalry still exists each city is going full throttle in regards to growth with much more varied circumstances then before. Hence why Alberta is in British Columbia's taillights in regards to population much closer than it used to be.
You can look at it this way as well, Greater Edmonton has more people now than either Manitoba or Saskatchewan. Same with Calgary it also has more people in their metro region that either of those "sister" prairie provinces. And until the province altering Oil Boom that started with the discovery at Leduc #1 in 1947 Alberta was the 3rd in population and wealth in the prairies after Manitoba and Saskatchewan with Winnipeg being the 4th largest city in Canada.
Last edited by NielCole; 07-10-2013 at 08:49 PM.
Im curious as to how the Prince Rupert/Kittima shipping terminal will enhenced our economic prosperity. I recalled reading an article from a former magazine called " Edmontonian " in which it mentioned that that this could rival the Oilsands in terms of financial bennifit for our city. That port has just started.
This will definitely spur more population growth to this region and province.
Any improved global access for our landlocked province will spur growth in any industry located here
*cough* Port Alberta *cough*
That boat sailed a long time ago.
Get a clue. (I'll try to be more passive aggressive next post ok)That boat sailed a long time ago.
http://portalberta.com/in-the-news/
PORT ALBERTA PRIORITIES
High Load Corridor
Foreign Trade Zone
Aerotropolis
Transportation & Investment Portal
Connect - Academia, Provincial, National and International entities to collaborate on strategy, opportunities and relationships.
Last edited by edmonton daily photo; 08-10-2013 at 03:45 PM.
"Do you give people who already use transit a better service, or do you build it where they don't use it in the hopes they might start to use it?" Nenshi
While this news release is trying to tie in with the focus on Regina for this weekends football game , It highlights the growth that is Happening in Alberta. After a period of inertia , people are indeed pulling up stakes and moving here from across the country.
The chart in the news release really puts the Edmonton advantage into focus when you compare housing, employment , employment growth and taxes. I strongly feel that when this is combined with the cultural , educational and sports options that Edmonton offers,Edmonton is a very strong choice for someone when they are deciding where to move their family to get ahead in life.
http://www.marketwired.com/press-rel...mo-1855290.htm
Alberta Migrant Growth 18,0000 in November
According to this article , There are still some huge numbers of people coming this way from other parts of Canada. What is amazing is that we seem to be able to put most of them to work full time . Alberta created half of the new jobs in Canada last month !
http://www.troymedia.com/2013/12/07/...cember-7-2013/
Keep in mind that the people most likely to move here because here is where the jobs are are for the very same reason most likely to move somewhere else if that's where the jobs go -- they are mobile! Thomas Hinderks has already said it, I guess.
Population growth brings its own problems as well. All the stuff about partying and crime aside, public services incur fixed costs for new construction/setup that go beyond proportionately increasing operating costs.
I'm not at all gloom and doom in the near and most likely middle term. But the world situation is complex enough and I've been around long enough I'm not going to just cheer.
I agree with those several comments putting this growth spurt in a cyclical economic setting. Like any cyclical pattern Edmonton/Alberta population will see high and low growth going forward, as in before.
As for if/when the cycle turns I agree with East McCauley that there are some headwinds brewing.
1- Developed countries are moving towards renewable energies but more importantly "energy efficiency", growth but with less reliance on energy. Look at the projection below from US Energy Information Administration (EIA):
2- Developing countries: Yes, they are still in the part of their growth where efficiency is not at the top of their policy agenda, but they are changing too. China, is shifting towards a consumption model of growth slowly but surely. They will never see double-digit growth rate of the past decade as a result. Based mainly on China's reduced appetite for commodities, a "bear" supercycle in commodity prices is underway. Most investment banks are closing their commodities trading desks due to reduced demand. India, not using the central planning government model of China, never realized such frenzied growth as China, and probably never will.
3- Add to the mix the possibility of extra oil from middle east, after US deal with Iran, and the supply of oil seems overtaking the demand in a few years time. With that, inevitably oil prices drops and with that Edmonton/Alberta economy.
4- However, I wanted to also point to a tailwind brewing too, which hopefully offset part of these energy-induced economic decline. And that is FOOD.
As China shifts to a middle-class economy, there is a huge demand for better food, more protein and dairy etc. Here is a chart of what demand looks like as per capita GDP:
And if history is any guide, we are in for a rise in food prices as China's demands grows, like what happened to industrial metals and energy in the past decade. In fact, it has already started. For instance look at the long-term movement of pork prices (traded in futures markets as lean hog contracts):
The trend is clear: upwards. And Alberta, has a lot of potential in agriculture sector.
Last edited by FamilyMan; 07-12-2013 at 09:54 PM.
Here's an interesting link related to population movement in general. But if you scroll down you will see how it relates to this thread look at the migration into the Edmonton and Calgary.
https://www.facebook.com/notes/faceb...51930946453859
*pic below for those too lazy to follow link*
Now sitting at 4,060,719. Grew by 35,000 since last quarter, which is the same as last year.
http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistic...y_pop_prov.pdf
Some perspective; BC took 5 quarters to go from 4,026,000 to 4,066,000 in 2000-2001. If the growth percentages stay the same Alberta eclipses BC in 2019.
Once again there was some tepid Kool-Aid reported in Fridays February Unemployment numbers on a National basis , but Alberta once again leads the way with the bulk of the National job growth.
I could not find a mention of it in the Journal this morning , But it looks like a significant drop in the Edmonton unemployment rate for this winter month From 5.5 down to 5.1 . This has to be doubly significant when we are experiencing such strong in-migration numbers.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business...117/story.html
4,082,xxx Q1 14'
Unreal growth numbers.... more than Ontario, double BC.
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...ataTable&csid=
What is 35,344,962 - 8,179,712.
https://www.google.com/search?q=What...62+-+8,179,712.
"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"
Haha. Thanks. Not that I needed it, but just presenting an equation as food for thought.
^ it depends on how the "subtraction" is performed...if one puts visa/work-visa barriers in place, it can be closer to 35,000,000 mark, IMO.
The growth continues...
The Conference board of Canada released it Growth projections this morning . Alberta is way ahead of the pack nationally at 3.2% . They are calling for an additional 61,000 New Jobs this year here.
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1325...growth-in-2014
Unemployment rate up slightly due to mass in-migration
The new stats this morning indicate the unemployment rate in Alberta is up slightly , but due to 13,500 new residents in March ! If this kind of in-migration is happening over the winter, summer should be very interesting.
http://economicdashboard.albertacanada.com/Unemployment
VERY interesting. I am hoping we get back to pre Great Recession days of 2007 with lots of work for everyone (including me)
13500 new residents in one month? Hopefully Alberta keeps this growth up! Imagine beating last years record of 134000 in a year! Bring on the 160000 for this year
13,500 growth in the Alberta labour force during March does not represent new residents. The labour force includes any Albertan who is either working or actively seeking work during the month.
Most recent data is 14,412 new residents in Q4 of 2013, which covers a three month period.
http://economicdashboard.albertacanada.com/NetMigration
Last edited by East McCauley; 04-04-2014 at 04:48 PM.
https://twitter.com/YourAlbertaAlberta Government @YourAlberta
New population numbers: 4,121,692 (July1). Alberta's the youngest, 36 median age, and fastest growing province, 2.5X nat'l average.
I'd be a little cautious with these statistics. Hog prices, at least in the near term, have risen drasitically because of all of the pigs that were being slaughtered due to Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea. Also, herds of cattle were slaughtered due to drought.I agree with those several comments putting this growth spurt in a cyclical economic setting. Like any cyclical pattern Edmonton/Alberta population will see high and low growth going forward, as in before.
As for if/when the cycle turns I agree with East McCauley that there are some headwinds brewing.
1- Developed countries are moving towards renewable energies but more importantly "energy efficiency", growth but with less reliance on energy. Look at the projection below from US Energy Information Administration (EIA):
2- Developing countries: Yes, they are still in the part of their growth where efficiency is not at the top of their policy agenda, but they are changing too. China, is shifting towards a consumption model of growth slowly but surely. They will never see double-digit growth rate of the past decade as a result. Based mainly on China's reduced appetite for commodities, a "bear" supercycle in commodity prices is underway. Most investment banks are closing their commodities trading desks due to reduced demand. India, not using the central planning government model of China, never realized such frenzied growth as China, and probably never will.
3- Add to the mix the possibility of extra oil from middle east, after US deal with Iran, and the supply of oil seems overtaking the demand in a few years time. With that, inevitably oil prices drops and with that Edmonton/Alberta economy.
4- However, I wanted to also point to a tailwind brewing too, which hopefully offset part of these energy-induced economic decline. And that is FOOD.
As China shifts to a middle-class economy, there is a huge demand for better food, more protein and dairy etc. Here is a chart of what demand looks like as per capita GDP:
And if history is any guide, we are in for a rise in food prices as China's demands grows, like what happened to industrial metals and energy in the past decade. In fact, it has already started. For instance look at the long-term movement of pork prices (traded in futures markets as lean hog contracts):
The trend is clear: upwards. And Alberta, has a lot of potential in agriculture sector.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0RP1DL20140925
In terms of caloric intake, it's not necessarily how much you eat, but what you eat, and that's as much a function of culture as income.
Full article posted due to Journals paywall.
Read the rest over here:People keep leaving Alberta as economy remains sluggish
It’s the fourth consecutive quarter that Statistics Canada’s population numbers have shown a net outflow. The population figures show that about 22,000 people left Alberta and about 18,000 people arrived in the province, for a net loss of almost 4,000 people in the last quarter. Year to date, there has been a net loss of 8,335 people in Alberta in the past four quarters.
While people may be moving to other provinces, industrious Albertans have managed to keep the population growing by posting the highest birth rate in the country.
http://edmontonjournal.com/business/...mains-sluggish
Last edited by ThomasH; 17-12-2016 at 05:24 PM.
^ You don't post the full article on this forum.
Edmonton first, everything else second.
meh I'll edit this comment.
Last edited by Kitlope; 17-12-2016 at 11:13 PM.
In the summer Jeremy Grantham wrote this article linked below. He uses Toronto and his home town as examples. As Alberta moves to a post oil economy lacking diversification to create replacement jobs (with export returns comparable to oil) we may be like Grantham's former coal mining based home town.
Grantham Warns on Immigration, Brexit
Immigration from outside Europe is a potentially explosive problem and Brexit may be its fuse
By Jeremy Grantham
July 2026, Barrons
...
http://www.barrons.com/articles/jere...xit-1468613443
Last edited by KC; 18-12-2016 at 09:58 AM.
Worthless link since the guy says nothing pertinent in the first seven lines of type.
Consider it like compounding interest.
Like the WSJ, if you google the headline you can bypass the paywall.
"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"
Thanks Paul.
The Journal headline is misleading.
It was only through interprovincial migration that Alberta lost a net 3,850 residents in the third quarter of 2016. During the same time period, an additional net 10,444 international migrants arrived in Alberta. So 6,594 more people moved to Alberta in Q3 than moved out of the province.
Data on the various components of Alberta population growth are detailed in Table 4 of this document:
http://www.finance.alberta.ca/abouta...3rdQuarter.pdf
Map 1 in the same document shows the movement to and from Alberta graphically.
Which is very interesting isn't it. Worse recession in decades and we still have immigration.
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