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Thread: Edmonton Centre Riding discussion

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    Default Edmonton Centre Riding discussion

    For discussing candiate platforms, praises, and concerns.

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    Project Democracy has poll data by riding on easy to use pages. Here's the one for Edmonton-Centre.

    Hawn is leading but with weaker numbers than last election. The Liberals have regained a lot of ground and I would guess that having Anne McLellan actively campaign for Mary MacDonald is helping.

    My personal analysis is that since the election was called the Liberals have climbed from 'no chance' to 'slim chance'. Lewis Cardinal is still pulling numbers fewer than the NDs received last round. It will be interesting to see if on voting day enough NDP voters decide to vote Liberal to swing it. I've spoken to a few people who are regular, traditional NDP voters with Cardinal signs on their lawns who thinking of voting Liberal if it looks like MacDonald is close Hawn.

    So the question is: Can MacDonald get the numbers up to striking distance?

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    I certainly hope so. When I first came to Canada that clown Hawn came a'knocking, and the second he heard I couldn't vote he actually turned and left. He didn't say a single word, just marched away when he heard I couldn't vote for him.

    Screw that. Left a sour taste in my mouth ever since and I'm actively campaigning against him now, where I probably wouldn't have if he wasn't a jerk to me. It's personal now =P

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    Good grief -- Laurie's been nailing his signs into trees!

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    Quote Originally Posted by JamesL View Post
    Good grief -- Laurie's been nailing his signs into trees!
    What a tool. Who does that?

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    Mary has been door knocking for over a year and a half. She is very serious about winning this riding, she has great people supporting her and on her team. www.electmary.ca

    Hey, I'll vote Liberal here if someone in Edmonton Strathcona is willing to vote for Linda :P
    www.decl.org

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    ^Consider it done, GreenSPACE.

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    Projections by http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com have Mary consistently within 3-6% of Hawn. These are only projections though based on large assumptions. Mary and her team know at the door, though, that her support is strong enough to be a serious threat to the Tories. Hence why Martin and Ignatieff where here Saturday working with Mary.
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    Projections by EKOS have Mary in the lead for the first time - http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-conte...il_19_2011.pdf I'm inferring this considering they have 1 seat projected in Alberta...
    Last edited by GreenSPACE; 19-04-2011 at 02:45 PM.
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    It's a bit odd that they'd rate Mary McDonald with a higher chance of success than Linda Duncan (which is what their projection appears to be). I think, maybe, there was a transcription error and the projection is actually 27 Conservative - 1 NDP.

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    ^ya, who knows.
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    It's possible Duncan could lose the seat, Project Democracy's poll rollup puts Duncan behind as of three days ago. They haven't added in the newer polls yet.

    Three Hundred Eight has her still holding the seat..

    The big problem is that these are national polls whose sample size at the riding level is very low. It's really hard to say how accurate they are.

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    A good set of candidate interviews from the Edmonton Journal. Me likes! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIHUk...embedded#at=46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    It's possible Duncan could lose the seat, Project Democracy's poll rollup puts Duncan behind as of three days ago. They haven't added in the newer polls yet.

    Three Hundred Eight has her still holding the seat..

    The big problem is that these are national polls whose sample size at the riding level is very low. It's really hard to say how accurate they are.
    I think at the riding level it will largely come down to turnout. Linda Duncan runs very good campaigns and her supporters are highly motivated, but Hastman is running a better campaign than Jaffer ever did. This is going to be a really exciting riding to watch on election night.

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    I would take all those polling sites with a huge grain of salt. Even local phone polls are sort of accurate at best, but most of those sites never take local issues, or the actual candidates into account.

    This site predicts riding by riding - http://www.electionprediction.org/
    Interesting to read up on the swing ridings on here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBandit View Post
    I certainly hope so. When I first came to Canada that clown Hawn came a'knocking, and the second he heard I couldn't vote he actually turned and left. He didn't say a single word, just marched away when he heard I couldn't vote for him.

    Screw that. Left a sour taste in my mouth ever since and I'm actively campaigning against him now, where I probably wouldn't have if he wasn't a jerk to me. It's personal now =P
    I'm not voting for him (this time, because of some "deal breaker" Conservative positions), but I've met him. He's a nice enough guy. Friendly. Pretty positive every time I've spoken with him. He's certainly not a "jerk". Maybe he misheard something you said.

    Maybe you don't understand the purpose of doorknocking. It's to identify your supporters and "get out the vote". Laurie did what any doorknocker should do. As soon as someone indicates they aren't voting for you, you leave with little or no comment.

    Party supporters often try to engage opposition supporters out campaigning, to try and waste as much of their time as possible. It's a common tactic, used by all parties.

    Rule #1 of doorknocking - don't waste any time debating or arguing with those who disagree with you.
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    I entirely understand the purpose of door knocking However, I do not live alone and you don't just turn your back on someone and walk away silently even if they aren't eligible to vote. "Sorry then, have a good day!" could have entirely changed my feelings towards him and taken three seconds, and those of my house mates who overheard the exchange and agreed it was awkward and a dick thing to do. I do want to clarify that it wasn't that I disagreed with him and was going to tie him up or said the wrong thing, I just explained where I was from and why I couldn't yet vote. If he was trying to give the cold shoulder to someone who wouldn't vote for him either way, I'd still think going from all smiles and happy shaking hands to stone faced silent march away wouldn't be right.

    As well, I refuse your assertion that anyone else would have done it, from personal experience in similar campaigns in the US and having been approached by other parties here in Canada. I say have a good day to people who I barely say two words to when I'm purchasing groceries or to my bus driver, a politician pushing for votes damn well better at least toss a shortened "Bye!" in there if they don't want to come off badly.

    Rule #1 of doorknocking - don't waste any time debating or arguing with those who disagree with you.
    Doesn't really relate to my experience =P I guess I will put it like this:

    My first real experience involving canadian politics had a politician disinterestedly walking away from me without even saying a word after he heard I wasn't yet eligible to vote. That's going to leave an impression on an outsider, even if that's the way it is supposed to be done.
    Last edited by DiscoBandit; 20-04-2011 at 11:24 PM. Reason: Changed tone

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    Projectdemocracy is completely useless for this election. The progressive vote in this riding could easily break either way, and (I can't stress this enough) ****there are no public riding polls for edmonton centre****. PD calculates the 'current' numbers from the 2008 election results swung by regional breakdowns of national polls. That means it's assuming that the results on a per-riding level will be roughly uniform with the previous election +/- however the prairies as a whole swing.

    Considering there's an entirely new slate of candidates other than Laurie Hawn, the NDP has been putting a huge focus on this riding (along with Ed-East and Ed-Strathcona), and the NDP have been experiencing a ridiculous surge across the country, I don't think a uniform swing from 2-300 samples of a national poll spread out over the entire prairies are going to cut it to tell anyone where they should vote strategically here.
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    The issue with the NDP in Edmonton-Centre is one of base. The Liberals have an existing base in the riding as well as 10000 voters who didn't vote when Anne McLellan left. Working from this base and with Anne actively campaigning they have a chance to get back to their previous numbers.

    For Lewis Cardinal to take the riding he has to more than triple the NDPs historical vote in the riding. Those votes aren't going to come from Conservative voters so he either has to take them from the Liberals or get new voters out.

    I agree that it is not out of the question that he could do this but with the both the Liberals and NDP running strong candidates it's starting to feel like a split.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    Blog post by Paula Simons on Mary - Will the Real Mary MacDonald Please Stand Up?

    http://communities.canada.com/edmont...macdonald.aspx
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    Quote Originally Posted by GreenSPACE View Post
    Blog post by Paula Simons on Mary - Will the Real Mary MacDonald Please Stand Up?

    http://communities.canada.com/edmont...macdonald.aspx
    Thanks. That was an interesting read.

    In campaigns how candidates brand themselves is always tricky. I do think Mary could have mentioned her other credentials more while still emphasizing her community work.

    I also think is discouraging that a PhD and background in law would be considered liabilities for getting elected.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    I think that comes from a misunderstanding of the reason why people go for the elitist labelling as a negative. When someone is perceived as elite in a negative way, it's because they didn't have to work for their status or have gone soft and lazy because of their status.

    Having a PhD and being a lawyer when you worked your *** off to be those things should be positives to average people who want to believe that they can achieve the same things if they only put in the work.
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    I think that Mary is the strongest candidate, but Layton is the best leader.

    Who to vote for?

    Mary to defeat Hawn I think.

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    ^Lewis Cardinal is also a very strong candidate with excellent community credentials. With the NDP wave turning into a tide, and the Liberal vote collapsing, Lewis becomes the strategic choice in Edmonton Centre.

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    I still don't see Lewis as being the strategic choice. Especially downtown, there is a STRONG liberal base and many business-types support liberal. NDP not so much. I would say Mary and the Liberals would be the best strategic vote in Edmonton Centre.

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    I don't really buy that there's a strong liberal base anywhere in the country anymore, least of all in the middle of Alberta.
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    vote splitting will ensure that the PC's win. Although I like Lewis I don't feel that he may be to too focused on certain demographics in Edmonton Center.
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    Quote Originally Posted by East McCauley View Post
    ^Lewis Cardinal is also a very strong candidate with excellent community credentials. With the NDP wave turning into a tide, and the Liberal vote collapsing, Lewis becomes the strategic choice in Edmonton Centre.
    The strategic choice to re-elect Laurie Hawn. I can't believe NDP supporters...Liberal supporters are voting for Linda in Strathcona and Ray Martin in Edmonton East, yet they won't do the right thing and support a Liberal in one measly riding.

    There is no evidence of the NDP being competitive in Edmonton Centre.

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    he is doing well with the large aboriginal population in edm center.
    "Do you give people who already use transit a better service, or do you build it where they don't use it in the hopes they might start to use it?" Nenshi

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    Quote Originally Posted by PrairieBoyinExile View Post
    I can't believe NDP supporters...Liberal supporters are voting for Linda in Strathcona and Ray Martin in Edmonton East, yet they won't do the right thing and support a Liberal in one measly riding.
    Since I kind of started this line of conversation, I feel I should point out that I am not generally an NDP supporter. My views align well with the Liberal party.

    But I think it's completely delusional to not see the imminent collapse of the Liberal party across the country. They lost the prairies, then they lost Quebec, and next they're going to lose everything but a few scattered ridings in metropolitan BC, Ontario and maybe the maritimes.

    Strategic voting is no longer cut and dry, and anyone pretending it is is delusional.
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    Quote Originally Posted by graham View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by PrairieBoyinExile View Post
    I can't believe NDP supporters...Liberal supporters are voting for Linda in Strathcona and Ray Martin in Edmonton East, yet they won't do the right thing and support a Liberal in one measly riding.
    Since I kind of started this line of conversation, I feel I should point out that I am not generally an NDP supporter. My views align well with the Liberal party.

    But I think it's completely delusional to not see the imminent collapse of the Liberal party across the country. They lost the prairies, then they lost Quebec, and next they're going to lose everything but a few scattered ridings in metropolitan BC, Ontario and maybe the maritimes.

    Strategic voting is no longer cut and dry, and anyone pretending it is is delusional.
    Voting based on your own analysis without a shred of evidence is more delusional than anything I've suggested. Project Democracy still shows Mary with 5000 more votes than Lewis. He may have the aboriginal support, but everyone knows aboriginals are one of the least reliable demographics when it comes to voter turnout, and that is not going to completely change in this election. Also, each race is different, and in Edmonton-Centre the vote is as dependent on the candidates as it is the party. Mary has Anne McLellan's endorsement, which is significant here.

    I don't have a lot of hope for this riding as it seems people are quite comfortable splitting the vote and re-electing Laurie Hawn.

    http://www.projectdemocracy.ca/node/65

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    There is a belief that NDP supporters stick to their guns and would never vote strategically. Whereas Liberal supporters are more open to vote strategically just so the Evil Conservatives do not get a majority.

    This can be viewed that NDPers are loyal and vote ethically. Or that NDPers are stubborn and elitists.

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    And EC split. Towards the NDP. So much for that incredibly solid base for the Liberals, and seat predictions using simplistic models and high margins of error in the face of a paradigm shift.

    Also so much for systematic strategic voting, failing for a fourth time in 10 years.
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    Looks like Hawn has been re-elected. Mary MacDonald is way behind.
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    So in the end the NDP grew their vote in Edmonton Centre by almost 6000 votes while the Liberals lost just under 2000 and Hawn gained just under 1000.
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    Solid win for Hawn. Given the numbers it can't even be called a split vote.

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    ^ it was a split vote.. the total NDP and Lib votes combined beat out Hawn.
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    By a hairs breadth which means that all the voters from one of the parties would have had to have switched their votes. It's only a split if there's a plausible scenario where the second or third place candidate could have won. That is not the case here.

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    I want my JETS and JAILS RIGHT NOW!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    By a hairs breadth which means that all the voters from one of the parties would have had to have switched their votes. It's only a split if there's a plausible scenario where the second or third place candidate could have won. That is not the case here.
    If you include the 1373 votes for the Green Party candidate in Edm-Centre, then yes, Laurie Hawn was the benefactor of a vote split.

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    Current posted numbers are:

    CON: 23552
    NDP: 12634
    LIB: 10969
    GRN: 1637
    PPC: 292

    Or:

    CON: 25552 23552
    Everyone Else: 25532

    Hawn won barely won.

    ---

    Edit note: I originally had Hawn incorrectly totalling 25552.
    Last edited by Paul Turnbull; 03-05-2011 at 12:53 PM. Reason: Math error.

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    oo so he did..

    its a squeeker though.. hardly a sweeping victory.

    not like some of the Edmonton/suburbia ridings where cons got 70+ percent of the vote.
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    ^ Your numbers are up-to-date. I got mine from today's Journal.

    Okay Hawn won....but barely.

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    he won.
    time to move on.

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    Doh!

    Actually I was wrong and misread.

    CON: 23552
    Everyone Else: 25532

    Apologies.

    I'd still say it is very implausible for the vote to shifted around in a way where Hawn could have lost short there only being two candidates. But it was at least technically possible.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  46. #46

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    YAY EDMONTON CENTER!!

    Time to start the party merger facebook thread!
    "Do you give people who already use transit a better service, or do you build it where they don't use it in the hopes they might start to use it?" Nenshi

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Current posted numbers are:
    CON: 23552
    NDP: 12634
    LIB: 10969
    GRN: 1637
    PPC: 292
    Or:
    CON: 25552 23552
    Everyone Else: 25532
    Hawn won barely won.

    ---

    Edit note: I originally had Hawn incorrectly totalling 25552.
    You can whine and cry and do all the wacky math you want. He won by over 11,000 votes.

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    Next time there won't be a strong Liberal candidate in this riding, they'll be too busy trying to rebuild themselves out east to bother trying to regain here. You can look at Edmonton East and Edmonton Strathcona to see that a one-sided vote for the lefter parties is entirely possible in Edmonton, and that means next time Hawn should probably campaign a bit harder if he wants to keep his seat.

    The collapse of the Liberal party could lose the CPC some seats in the prairies next time.
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    If Lewis Cardinal commits to federal politics and works on his base then he might have chance against Hawn. I get the feeling that the vast majority of Hawn's voters are base (voters who will vote for him no matter what) while a lot of Cardinal's vote were part of the NDP surge. These are people switched their votes NDP based on the current campaign. The Cardinal needs to convert those people into committed NDP voters if they're going to have a chance next round.

    My fear with Cardinal is that he'll abandon the federal party to run provincially when the next Alberta election rolls around.

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    Agreed, it would take a commitment to stick with the federal party and to continue campaigning for the duration. If the NDP have enough vision to commit to expanding the foothold they gained in Edmonton Strathcona (which grew in this election to a solid win, so it shouldn't be too difficult of a bet to make), they will do well here. But that does mean keeping a solid campaign on the ground for the long duration.

    With urban densification happening in the core and growing all the time, the demographics will likely have shifted considerably in the next 4 years as well.

    Here's what Lewis Cardinal said on facebook:

    In so many ways my team and I won big last night. We started with very little and built a movement powered by a formidable campaign team, a small army of volunteers, and real friendships. My sleeves are still rolled up, my campaign shoes are being re-soled, and I will run again. Thank you all.
    Last edited by graham; 03-05-2011 at 03:54 PM.
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