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Thread: Ever heard the term peak oil

  1. #1
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    Default Ever heard the term peak oil

    Ever heard the term peak oil? Alberta would have you believe that by producing 5 million barrels a day by 2030 we will become global leaders, with an enhanced quality of life. Consider that by 2016, globally we will be using 100million barrels of oil per day.

    So Boohoo, alternative power to the rescue right? Wrong, alternative power is oil derived. Don't believe me? About a year ago I said we were about to see how far down this rabbit hole goes.

    I think I've found the bottom:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSQ0KtnaMVc
    http://www.canadasoilsands.com/en/fo...ic.aspx?id=160
    http://www.collapsemovie.com/
    http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

    Still counting on that recovery?

    Contact all the MLAs, demand public discussion, now!
    Last edited by Innadiated; 30-01-2010 at 04:28 AM.

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    You should try coherent thoughts. They travel better.
    Change the incentives and our car-dependant city can change too.

  3. #3

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    If the issue is plateau oil (more likley than peak oil), here is a good thread to discuss it in:

    http://www.connect2edmonton.ca/forum...ad.php?t=12878

  4. #4

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    Yay! Return of the tin-foil hatters!
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

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    My hat doesn't contain any oil derived products, thx. I don't even have a hat.

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    tin is derived from oil? somebody better tell whomever put it into the periodic table!

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    Actually it is aluminum

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    how do we extract and mold tin into a hat?

    No oil involved?

    Derived does not mean "made of".
    Last edited by Innadiated; 30-01-2010 at 05:06 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Innadiated View Post
    how do we extract and mold tin into a hat?

    No oil involved?

    Derived does not mean "made of".
    Long before oil, there was a thing called COAL! people have smelted tin ,iron, steel. with other sources long before oil showed up. Remember the bronze age? no oil there!

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    Another person who didn't read what i linked.

    * Hint: I didn't say how "did" we, I said how "do" we...
    Last edited by Innadiated; 31-01-2010 at 02:13 AM.

  11. #11

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    The way I see it, Huberts' "peak oil" is a pretty simple reality the planet will very likely face if it isn't already. However, it will only be obvious in hindsight. Luckily, as fears increase, so will the price of oil thus leading to conservation, further exploration and the adoption of alternative energies. Of course, countries will then also get fearful and start to lock up reserves and thus take more supply right off the market. (Creating their own Fort Knoxs of sort.) We'll have to see what new drilling and supply from Iraq, the Caribbean, etc. might bring.

    Maybe something with decent energy density for the money will come along before the peak and oil will become seemingly plentiful like coal. However, I don't think so, since oil has so many alternate uses. For instance, even today we still use coal despite cheap oil and gas arriving decades ago. So oil will continue to be drained from the ground.

    Combine huge federal deficits [from bailing out investors and bankers of questionable intelligence which very possibly will create a need for new taxes], with fears of global warming and depleting oil reserves and I think regulation may soon come along to bias oil use to fertilizer and plastic production or pay a huge combustion/carbon tax. Natural gas will be cut slack since it's still plentiful.

    People just need to realize that all their eggs are in one basket here and that can put people and countries in very risky or desperate situations when supply disruptions or price spikes occur. Note that the youtube play above said the average Chinese uses 2 bbl of oil a year, Brit uses 11 barrels a yr - and American 25 bbl/yr - and I've heard elsewhere that China is now producing as many cars as America!

    "Peak Commodity" is a newer extension of the concept being discussed. Look at what we've done to the oceans (we seem well past Peak Fish) and it sure seems likely that we will strip all natural resource value from all parts of the planet.
    Last edited by KC; 10-02-2010 at 09:18 AM.

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    Actually, "peak commodity" isn't all that new at all. Hubert himself looked at regional production of other resources and found that they typically followed the exact same pattern. In fact it's called "Hubert's Peak Theory", with no "oil" in there.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert...#Hubbert_peaks

    The problem of course is that technology and new discoveries are unpredictable, and they can mess with the curve. Look at shale gas and what it's done for natural gas production in North America. But the basic premise remains the same: if there's a finite amount of resources, production will initially be easy and cheap to achieve, but as the total amount of remaining resources dwindle and the "big finds" are played out they'll become more and more expensive to produce, and eventually overall production will decline without massively increasing production expenses.

  13. #13

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    Peak oil is a physical reality, and whether or not it has arrived or not is pretty irrelevant. By the time the last drop of oil could theoretically be squeezed, if our economy was geared the way it is currently, that drop would be infinitely valuable. Obviously, we will never reach that point.

    One thing that environmentalists tend to forget is that the free market is their friend, and not their foe. The energy spike in 2007 caused a massive amount of public awareness and investment capital to be concentrated on alternative energies. Indeed, electric cars and hybrids because common points of conversation and started reaching scale. Hopefully the promising tecnology around nuclear fusion make our energy debate go away for the next 1000 years.

    The point is that peak oil will be a total non-story... because the high price of oil will have created demand for an entire subclass of energy products that now seems obscure. This process has happened repeatedly throughout human history. And eventually, we're not going to run out of it -- people simply aren't going to need it anymore.

    Conspiracy theorists need to do more research.

  14. #14

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    Notice we don't here anything in the media about peak oil anymore?

    Modern fracing and in-situ techniques are opening up huge reserves or previously untapped Oil throughout North America. This is what happens, prices go up, and new technologies are developed, and become more economic. The peak never arrives, or at least, has been put back 50 or 100 years (by which time, no dount there will be more energy saving and extracting technologies).

    Part of the problem is these new US supplies compete with Canadian oil. Word is that the US could be fully energy independent on a net basis, by 2017. The glut is starting to impact oil sands producers, particularly due to choke points in the US like at Cushing. Quite a change.
    Last edited by moahunter; 25-04-2012 at 10:19 AM. Reason: throughout not throuhout

  15. #15

    Default US Boom in Production Spells Peril for Canadian Crude

    For Canada, the news is both good and grim: Canadian crude, flowing by pipeline, will continue to be a substantial source of U.S. energy. But growth in Canadian exports south of the border could face a wall in 2018, when the combination of U.S. oil output and pipeline constraints raise the possibility for new “Canadian production to get pushed out,” said Jodi Quinnell, one of the Bentek report authors. “What comes in to the U.S. will slow and basically remain flat from 2018 to 2025.”

    That projection suggests the coming half-decade will see Canada, and its fast-growing oil sands, struggle against the tide of U.S. oil. It also substantially raises the stakes for a country in the midst of two contentious applications to carry Canadian crude to the British Columbia coast for export to Pacific markets. It should “cause us to, even more than we are today, realize the importance of creating additional channels to the world,” said Wayne Chodzicki, the Calgary-based global head of oil and gas for consulting firm KPMG.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle4535525/

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    So perhaps Transcanada should be thinking of running pipelines to Ontario instead of Oklahoma.

  17. #17

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    ^Bingo, there is talk of TransCanada converting part of the Canadian gas mainline to carry oil East:

    http://business.financialpost.com/20...o-oil-service/

    CALGARY — TransCanada Corp. said it’s taking a serious look at converting its underused mainline, Canada’s largest natural gas pipeline, to oil service, a prospect that would give a big boost to the idea of a Canadian solution to anti-oil sands activism by shipping more of Canada’s Western oil to Eastern consumers.

    CEO Russ Girling said Friday refiners in Eastern Canada and oil producers in Western Canada are keen on the concept and have asked TransCanada to look into the feasibility of converting parts of the system.

    “We are going to actively pursue it and see if we can turn it into an opportunity for both, the oil and gas industry and TransCanada,” Mr. Girling told reporters after addressing the company’s annual meeting.

    The giant pipeline is TransCanada’s original business and is one of Canada’s nation-building infrastructures. For decades, it is has moved natural gas from Empress, Alta., down to the U.S. northeast and into Ontario and Quebec

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    Quote Originally Posted by Titanium48 View Post
    So perhaps Transcanada should be thinking of running pipelines to Ontario instead of Oklahoma.
    In case anyone missed the announcement in July
    Enbridge Line 9 Reversal - Approved by the NEB
    http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rth...rls13-eng.html

    i.e. Additional flows from the west will be travelling eastbound.

    Also, I would love to see the Bentek report...

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    ^Bingo, there is talk of TransCanada converting part of the Canadian gas mainline to carry oil East:

    http://business.financialpost.com/20...o-oil-service/

    CALGARY — TransCanada Corp. said it’s taking a serious look at converting its underused mainline, Canada’s largest natural gas pipeline, to oil service, a prospect that would give a big boost to the idea of a Canadian solution to anti-oil sands activism by shipping more of Canada’s Western oil to Eastern consumers.

    CEO Russ Girling said Friday refiners in Eastern Canada and oil producers in Western Canada are keen on the concept and have asked TransCanada to look into the feasibility of converting parts of the system.

    “We are going to actively pursue it and see if we can turn it into an opportunity for both, the oil and gas industry and TransCanada,” Mr. Girling told reporters after addressing the company’s annual meeting.

    The giant pipeline is TransCanada’s original business and is one of Canada’s nation-building infrastructures. For decades, it is has moved natural gas from Empress, Alta., down to the U.S. northeast and into Ontario and Quebec
    This would be Enbridge exploring contingencies due to Clark attempting to extract more money out of Northern Gateway under the guise of environmental protection.
    Don't feed the trolls!

  20. #20

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    ^TransCanada and Enbridge compete (although not viciously). The issue remains refining capacity, eastern refineries would require billions in investment to be able to refine our heavy oil. There is little desire to invest money in refineries given what a poor payback they provide (and all the environmental issues associated with them). At some point though the balance might "tip" to make it worthwhile if our oil gets totally trapped.

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    Default Potential of Alberta's shale formations may exceed oilsands: study

    The province's shale formations, including the Duvernay, Montney and Muskwa, could contain 3,324 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 58.6 billion barrels of gas liquids and 423.6 billion barrels of oil, according to the research, conducted by the Alberta Energy Resources Conservation Board and Alberta Geological Survey.
    The numbers show Alberta has huge potential even beyond its oilsands. They are seen as the world's third-largest crude deposit with about 170 billion barrels of proven reserves and ultimate potential of as much as 1.7 trillion barrels.
    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/busin...922/story.html
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  22. #22

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    Massive shale oil find in Australia, larger than oil sands:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/aust...ands-1.1320034

  23. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Massive shale oil find in Australia, larger than oil sands:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/aust...ands-1.1320034
    They say it could be worth twenty trillion dollars. But that's at current pricing. Since prices rose over the mast decade it seems everyone is 'finding' these massive deposits. Natural gas prices have plummeted on all the new gas finds so you have to wonder about the future for oil pricing.

  24. #24

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    They will keep finding oil all over the place.. But it's running it's course... More and more pressure to get out of these technologies and into something less polluting and destructive to the planet. (And yes climate change is real)..

    Just hope that alberta can get off the oil diet and into something else..

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Massive shale oil find in Australia, larger than oil sands:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/aust...ands-1.1320034
    It's not actually. The oil sands in total contains about 2 trillion barrels, give or take. Of which about 170 billion barrels are economically recoverable with today's technology. It would appear from the article that the total deposit there is around 230 billion barrels, but the actual recoverable amount is still unknown, and likely to be a fraction of that. So in actuality, this deposit is probably around 10% of the size of the Athabasca oil sands, although it's too early to say.

    He says it is still to early to fully assess the quality of the resource, and how much is extractable at a commercially competitive cost. "I think it's unwise to hang one's hat too much on the size of the numbers," he added."The numbers are going to be very large, but we really need to move from that in terms of this focus around the quantity to ultimately one of the quality of the resource — how good is it, how economic will it be, and that's going to take a significant amount of exploration and appraisal work before the industry's in a position to determine that."
    Last edited by Marcel Petrin; 06-11-2013 at 09:05 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Massive shale oil find in Australia, larger than oil sands:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/aust...ands-1.1320034
    It's not actually. The oil sands in total contains about 2 trillion barrels, give or take. Of which about 170 billion barrels are economically recoverable with today's technology. It would appear from the article that the total deposit there is around 230 billion barrels, but the actual recoverable amount is still unknown, and likely to be a fraction of that. So in actuality, this deposit is probably around 10% of the size of the Athabasca oil sands, although it's too early to say.

    He says it is still to early to fully assess the quality of the resource, and how much is extractable at a commercially competitive cost. "I think it's unwise to hang one's hat too much on the size of the numbers," he added."The numbers are going to be very large, but we really need to move from that in terms of this focus around the quantity to ultimately one of the quality of the resource — how good is it, how economic will it be, and that's going to take a significant amount of exploration and appraisal work before the industry's in a position to determine that."
    Thanks for the clarification! Besides, look at the difficulties we have getting oil to market, and we've known about it for far longer!

    Count on organizations like EEDC and TEC-Edmonton, and the U of A to develop alternative industries (technology, etc.) that will take Alberta's dependence off of oil, albeit minimally in the short term.

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    Default Oil sands crude is tanking again

    http://www.mining.com/oil-sands-crud...g-again-28306/
    Maya heavy oil from Mexico is of similar quality to the oil sands blend but is priced at a $40 premium to Canadian crude today.


    Alberta's landlocked oil cannot reach lucrative growing markets in Asia because of a lack of pipelines which turns the province into a price-taker.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Glenco View Post
    http://www.mining.com/oil-sands-crud...g-again-28306/
    Maya heavy oil from Mexico is of similar quality to the oil sands blend but is priced at a $40 premium to Canadian crude today.


    Alberta's landlocked oil cannot reach lucrative growing markets in Asia because of a lack of pipelines which turns the province into a price-taker.
    Lack of pipelines but also a lack of domestic refining capacity. Maybe the province should have just subsidized the building of a local refinery.

  29. #29

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    Now all the talk is Peak Demand by 2040:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle29648169/

    If that is true, then the theory is, you want to pump as fast as you can, as oil will ultimately be trapped in the ground.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Glenco View Post
    http://www.mining.com/oil-sands-crud...g-again-28306/
    Maya heavy oil from Mexico is of similar quality to the oil sands blend but is priced at a $40 premium to Canadian crude today.


    Alberta's landlocked oil cannot reach lucrative growing markets in Asia because of a lack of pipelines which turns the province into a price-taker.
    Lack of pipelines but also a lack of domestic refining capacity. Maybe the province should have just subsidized the building of a local refinery.
    like redwater? the first new canadian refinery since 1984?
    "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

  31. #31

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    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Glenco View Post
    http://www.mining.com/oil-sands-crud...g-again-28306/
    Maya heavy oil from Mexico is of similar quality to the oil sands blend but is priced at a $40 premium to Canadian crude today.


    Alberta's landlocked oil cannot reach lucrative growing markets in Asia because of a lack of pipelines which turns the province into a price-taker.
    Lack of pipelines but also a lack of domestic refining capacity. Maybe the province should have just subsidized the building of a local refinery.
    like redwater? the first new canadian refinery since 1984?
    Did the province chip in on that?

  32. #32

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    ^my understanding is the province is locked up as the shipper on it (province has production it needs to process or export), the shipper ultimately pays - but the province gets to sell the mostly diesel product.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Glenco View Post
    http://www.mining.com/oil-sands-crud...g-again-28306/
    Maya heavy oil from Mexico is of similar quality to the oil sands blend but is priced at a $40 premium to Canadian crude today.


    Alberta's landlocked oil cannot reach lucrative growing markets in Asia because of a lack of pipelines which turns the province into a price-taker.
    Lack of pipelines but also a lack of domestic refining capacity. Maybe the province should have just subsidized the building of a local refinery.
    like redwater? the first new canadian refinery since 1984?
    Did the province chip in on that?
    Here is a source to explain the BRIK system

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Now all the talk is Peak Demand by 2040:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle29648169/

    If that is true, then the theory is, you want to pump as fast as you can, as oil will ultimately be trapped in the ground.
    Saudi Arabia plans to sell state oil assets to create $2tn wealth fund

    ...If the fund was built up to $2tn, it would be more than double Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, regarded as the largest in the world by assets...

    ...“IPOing Aramco and transferring its shares to PIF will technically make investments the source of Saudi government revenue, not oil,” the 30-year-old son of King Salman said in an interview with Bloomberg in Riyadh.

    “What is left now is to diversify investments, so within 20 years we will be an economy or state that doesn’t depend mainly on oil.”...
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/...tn-wealth-fund
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  35. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by glasshead View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Glenco View Post
    http://www.mining.com/oil-sands-crud...g-again-28306/
    Maya heavy oil from Mexico is of similar quality to the oil sands blend but is priced at a $40 premium to Canadian crude today.


    Alberta's landlocked oil cannot reach lucrative growing markets in Asia because of a lack of pipelines which turns the province into a price-taker.
    Lack of pipelines but also a lack of domestic refining capacity. Maybe the province should have just subsidized the building of a local refinery.
    like redwater? the first new canadian refinery since 1984?
    Did the province chip in on that?
    Here is a source to explain the BRIK system

    That document talks of the value of a secure supply. Presently, with apparently a massive surplus due to over production that doesn't seem to be a value adding component to the equation.

    Are there huge constraints here to exporting upgraded product? i.e. a shortage of pipeline capacity?

    From that link:

    Why is this important to Alberta?

    Numerous studies and reports demonstrate the majority of “value” contained in Alberta’s resources doesn’t come from the extraction process, but rather through the processing of these materials into higher end products. Taking Alberta bitumen from a raw state to a consumer ready product can double or even triple the GDP effect it will have on the province. Moving products further up the value chain diversifies Alberta’s economy and decreases the impact of drastic fluctuations in the price of oil and natural gas.

    The BRIK program also encourages investment in Alberta’s resources in entirely new sectors, dispelling the myth that Alberta was just the place where oil was pumped from the ground. It opens doors to a whole new global marketplace and results in investment by companies that have traditionally not had a presence in our province.

    While BRIK will not be the silver bullet that overcomes all pressures and challenges, it is a major step forward in creating a new chapter in industrial development in Alberta.

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