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Thread: Reflect on the last boom, plan for the next

  1. #1

    Default Reflect on the last boom, plan for the next

    There can be no doubt that Edmonton has a boom/bust economy, which oscillates wildly and unexpectedly like our weather. Now, unfortunately, we are slumping into a torpor of economic depression, after a wild frenzy of economic growth. The boom is over- I’m sorry.

    Perpetually an optimist, I know with absolute certainty that Edmonton will boom again. Right now, we have an opportunity to plan for this bright future, and our current bust offers us the blessing of time to think, something we never have when our economy turns super hot in the blink of an eye.

    So looking back on this last boom, and previous booms, how did we grow? How did we develop? What were our missed opportunities? What could we have done differently? Did we blow it, or did we manage our growth well?

    What are our thoughts, so we can plan ahead for the next great leap in our development?
    Last edited by Graham66; 04-05-2009 at 02:33 PM.

  2. #2

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    Quote Originally Posted by Graham66 View Post
    There can be no doubt that Edmonton has a boom/bust economy, which oscillates wildly and unexpectedly like our weather. Now, unfortunately, we are slumping into a torpor of economic depression, after a wild frenzy of economic growth. The boom is over- I’m sorry.

    Perpetually an optimist, I know with absolute certainty that Edmonton will boom again. Right now, we have an opportunity to plan for this bright future, and our current bust offers us the blessing of time to think, something we never have when our economy turns super hot in the blink of an eye.

    So looking back on this last boom, and previous booms, how did we grow? How did we develop? What were our missed opportunities? What cold we have done differently? Did we blow it, or did we manage our growth well?

    What are our thoughts, so we can plan ahead for the next great leap in our development?
    I'm sorry but this city is still growing.. still creating jobs and people are still moving here.

    We may not be BOOMING, but we are still growing.

  3. #3
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    ^Yes that's true but booming and growing are two different things.

    I think one great thing that we can do is have more incentives to develop the downtown, Quarters, "North Edge", Oliver, Old Strathcona, Strathearn, and Glenora areas as well promote and construct more TODs like Century Park. I know we were trying to promote these urban areas more, especially towards the tail end of the boom, but we need to do more and more I think. Instead of sprawlifying the southside more, build a few subdivisions because no matter you like it or not, there will always be demand but instead focus development on urban intensification. Work with Sherwood Park and St. Albert to develop a regional consensus so we can get LRT out there, and that they somewhat abide by what Edmonton would be doing in terms of growth - urbanifying it. We should also not even consider expanding our city limits, like the last one with considering a section to Leduc, AB. We should develop our NE quadrant into a cool new urbanism (See: Prospect New Town, Maple Grove) based on the LRT. We could expand past Gorman to Fort Saskatchewan.
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  4. #4

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    Unlike Calgary, we are much more stable. We are not as affect by the boom and bust cycle of gas and oil.

    Thank you for diversity! Edmonton is Canada's most diversified economy, and this is why we ride out this down turn in good shape.

  5. #5

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    Is Edmonton really Canada's most diversified Economy?

    Where is your source? I am more curious than doubting.

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  7. #7

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    So, we may not feel the economic downturn as badly as some other places, but can we agree that the pace of growth feels a little bit different than it did a year ago? Look at construction starts, employment figures, and news headlines about layoffs.
    We are still growing, for sure, but in the not-too-distant future we will be growing frenetically again, like we were a few years ago, and a decade before that, and a decade before that.

    Edmontonenthusiast ^^^ brings up some great projects. But these projects were only really developed once the boom was in full swing, which I argue was to late. Had these ideas been developed before the boom, could some of our sprawl have been prevented, and diverted into well-thought-out, sustainable urban communities?

  8. #8

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    Its important during this slower period to make headway into projects such as transportation infrastructure deficit. Repair those streets in the old neighbourhoods. Get WLRT and NLRT going... get SELRT going too.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Graham66 View Post
    So, we may not feel the economic downturn as badly as some other places, but can we agree that the pace of growth feels a little bit different than it did a year ago? Look at construction starts, employment figures, and news headlines about layoffs.
    We are still growing, for sure, but in the not-too-distant future we will be growing frenetically again, like we were a few years ago, and a decade before that, and a decade before that.

    Edmontonenthusiast ^^^ brings up some great projects. But these projects were only really developed once the boom was in full swing, which I argue was to late. Had these ideas been developed before the boom, could some of our sprawl have been prevented, and diverted into well-thought-out, sustainable urban communities?
    Your right development does feel diffrent.. IT feel normal

    I think we have forgotten at what pace life truley does progress at.

  10. #10

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    Thanks for the link, Medwards. Perhaps we can also agree that economic turmoil is disadvantageous, and economic diversification is key to dampening our vulnerability to cyclical economic conditions (i.e. the oil and gas industry). But diverse or not, another boom is coming, folks, I'm sure of it.

  11. #11
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    Graham

    Yes I agree to an extent the planning needs to at least be started pre-boom. It's a good thing that stuff such as Strathearn redevelopment, Vision For the Corner in Glenora, Jasper Avenue revitalization, and Station Pointe are being started now because they take longer and WAY more thought than Rutherford or Cameron Heights. Come the next boom cycle, the Quarters area will probably go nuts. It could end up like Yaletown, Coal Harbour, the Pearl District, SoWa (Portland), or Gastown.
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  12. #12
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    ^well the most important thing is to manage the boom properly. That means government having the foresight to do infrastructure now that things have slowed down, and to NOT exacerbate the boom by spending frantically and competing with massive oil companies for the same pool of labor.

  13. #13

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    We are prepping for it.

    Master plans for Jasper Ave

    Rezoning for Infill Developement Going Ahead.

    Station Lands lookign forward to starting the next project, as all they would need is a major tennant to start the next tower.

    LRT Planning, and building.

    U of A South Campus

    Nait Campus extension

    Grant Mac Campus Extension.

    I think we are on a prety big roll!

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    ^Also...

    Many downtown developments ready to go,
    Strathearn redevelopment,
    VFTC,
    Clairmont Village,
    Centre in the Park (parts of it are not being built),
    other Sherwood park villages,
    Station Pointe (Ft Road Redevelopment),
    The Quarters,
    More North Edge stuff,
    WLRT,
    NLRT,
    SELRT,
    Stadium Stn TOD,
    Strathcona Junction,
    Jasper Avenue revitalization,
    YEG Expansion,
    Bus expansion,
    YXD closing.

    Granted some of the stuff you already said.
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  15. #15

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    ready to go, but no credit available...

    Some of these new condo proposals are going to die rather then seeing fruition.

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    ^yes, but some have been approved and could easily start if the economy goes back in 1-2 years.
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  17. #17

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    I think this is a time to focus on infrustructre and not expect housing projects to employ our labour force.

  18. #18

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    The Globe and Mail this Saturday featured a stat that Edmonton's average housing price over the past 5 yrs increased 74%, I think the 2nd highest in the country. Booms aren't healthy for anybody. Steady growth is better.

  19. #19

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    Our housing prices prior to the boom were far far far below the natational average.

    We were teh ugly sister that grew into her looks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Transplanted_Edm View Post
    The Globe and Mail this Saturday featured a stat that Edmonton's average housing price over the past 5 yrs increased 74%, I think the 2nd highest in the country. Booms aren't healthy for anybody. Steady growth is better.
    on the other hand, we bought our first house in edmonton in 1977 in goldbar for $72,000 - a 1,200 sf three bedroom bungalow with a partially finished basement, a single car unheated garage and some great neighbors. at 5% per annum - pretty steady growth i would think - for 33 years, that house today would have to sell for about $360,000. at this point in time, within two blocks of that house there are two very similar homes listed for 320,000 and 349,900. before deciding whether growth and rising prices are "reasonable" or not, you must look at them over a reasonable length of time, not simply during a short term boost or a short term bust period...
    Last edited by kcantor; 04-05-2009 at 10:25 PM.
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  21. #21

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    Steady growth is better, but so is steady weather, yet we choose to live here anyway, knowing that in all likelihood we will never have either!

    But in all seriousness, I think that a large portion of the growth in housing prices is attributable to them being undervalued prior to the boom, and overvalued at the end (more so the first than the latter), as 'daily photo' suggests.

    But during boom times, it is all too easy to build huge vinyl subdivisions, which is exactly what happened last time, and we cannot let this happen again. There is real danger that some of these major housing projects (my favorite is the Quarters) could never come into fruition, due to the current economic climate. And once they fail, it may be hard to reintroduce them when they are needed.

    But what a great time this is to catch up on our infrastructure!

  22. #22

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    Will the Quarteres fill out EXACTLY the way it's planned. No, but nothing ever does.
    I think Vision and Grand design is a very important key to developement too!

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    ^^Wrong. Edmonton like any major North American city had boom times. After those boom times the city either becomes a stable, beautiful, healthy, full of things to do, and very urban city (Montréal), or falls behind (Detroit). Detroit was Paris in the 1930s. Montréal was the top of Canada until the mid 1970s. Both cities were boom towns earlier in their history. But they've aged and "matured". Edmonton is still in the boom phase, and it probably will continue to for another say 20 years or so and then stablizing. So ... for right now yeah we're going to see boom-bust cycles, like many major cities have - New York, Detroit, Chicago, Winnipeg, Cleveland, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Tulsa, or Albany. I guess it depends how smart we are with it. We can be like Calgary and build lts and then just crash when the bust comes, or be more like Edmonton is, build less, diversify and see less of a crash. Maybe somewhere in between?

    ^
    No - not exactly. You gotta remember most of the stuff with the Quarters is pretty preliminary right now anyways. Over the next 1-3 yrs we'll see it get more detailed and come an up turn in the economy - there will be sound renderings and plans and it will be built very close to the plan in 1-3 yrs I suppose. I think Pearl District or Coal Harbour please !
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    Maybe this was asked before in another thread:

    During that last Alberta boom the prices were mainly in the $40 range, got up to $60 by 2006, then shot up into the stratosphere last year. So at $70/barrel today, why is Alberta government still in a deficit?
    “You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012

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    ^oil is dynamic and so is the province's budgeted prediction of what it will be.... it dropped but our commitments to the budget at a set oil price were done.

    think of it like a future you are committed to
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sonic Death Monkey View Post
    Maybe this was asked before in another thread:

    During that last Alberta boom the prices were mainly in the $40 range, got up to $60 by 2006, then shot up into the stratosphere last year. So at $70/barrel today, why is Alberta government still in a deficit?
    a good portion of the province's revenue are from royalties from natural gas, which is in the tank at the moment.

  27. #27

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    Why Alberta remains an energy investment magnet even without the oilsands
    Peter Tertzakian | February 7, 2017

    http://business.financialpost.com/ne...t-the-oilsands

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