Credit crisis drivel

KC · 18-07-2008, 06:18 AM

Most economists believe credit crisis far from over, poll finds

http://www.canada.com/edmontonjourna...5-17151ba2e113

What a joke - these guys were no where to be found as conditions got precarious - and now they are experts?!?!

I wish the Journal would instead report on what Prem Watsa, Warren Buffett, Bill Ackerman, Marty Whitman and all the other clear thinking investment pros (some even warning of the crisis years in advance) are now saying. These economists likely didn't even know what "moral hazard" was until six months ago. This time last year they were likely forecasting global warming economic impacts or oil at $60/bbl.

What was it Galbraith said about economists and their forecasts? 'If economists have such a poor record for forecasting why to they do it? Because someone asked them to.'

Jimbo · 18-07-2008, 09:23 AM

/\ C'mon, cut them some slack. They've correctly predicted 20 of the last 2 recessions.

KC · 17-01-2009, 08:51 AM

Hey - "Oil May fall next week"!!! (see below)

Anyway, each time a recession is predicted we soon started to read about how it was going to turn into the next Great Depression. (Six years ago we had the same thing.) The media loves to report on the extremes. The geniuses are now predicting increasingly worse times - and companies are jumping on the bandwagon and laying off staff making the situation far worse. (Generally, everyone can handle a bit of a wage or time rollback but layoffs can create catastrophic situations.)

It just seems that the whole world is run by manic-depressive personality types that can't think for themselves. And they are paid outrageous sums to put our world at risk. As for investment markets - if anyone has been reading up on any of the forward thinking investment managers above, they are all pretty much drooling over the investment opportunities they are seeing. The doom and gloomers though have got the snowball rolling - it's just as bad as the rule of the "spend as if there's no tomorrow" crowd we've had to endure for the last few years.

And if you are prone to believing what you read about most analysts predictions - this is what a coworker always gets a great laugh over - note their astounding success rate.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aseTfSt7Kjvg

Oil May Fall as U.S. Inventories Rise, Survey Shows

"...The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.

Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. "

And people make decisions, like laying off staff, based on this repetitive but mindless reporting. (If you hear something enough times - from seemingly credible sources - you start to believe it.)

18-07-2008, 06:18 AM	#1
KC Addicted to C2E Join Date: Mar 2006	Credit crisis drivel Most economists believe credit crisis far from over, poll finds http://www.canada.com/edmontonjourna...5-17151ba2e113 What a joke - these guys were no where to be found as conditions got precarious - and now they are experts?!?! I wish the Journal would instead report on what Prem Watsa, Warren Buffett, Bill Ackerman, Marty Whitman and all the other clear thinking investment pros (some even warning of the crisis years in advance) are now saying. These economists likely didn't even know what "moral hazard" was until six months ago. This time last year they were likely forecasting global warming economic impacts or oil at $60/bbl. What was it Galbraith said about economists and their forecasts? 'If economists have such a poor record for forecasting why to they do it? Because someone asked them to.'

18-07-2008, 09:23 AM	#2
Jimbo Addicted to C2E Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Westmount, Edmonton	/\ C'mon, cut them some slack. They've correctly predicted 20 of the last 2 recessions. __________________ aka Jim Good; "The sooner you fall behind, the more time you have to catch up." - Steven Wright

17-01-2009, 08:51 AM	#3
KC Addicted to C2E Join Date: Mar 2006	Hey - "Oil May fall next week"!!! (see below) Anyway, each time a recession is predicted we soon started to read about how it was going to turn into the next Great Depression. (Six years ago we had the same thing.) The media loves to report on the extremes. The geniuses are now predicting increasingly worse times - and companies are jumping on the bandwagon and laying off staff making the situation far worse. (Generally, everyone can handle a bit of a wage or time rollback but layoffs can create catastrophic situations.) It just seems that the whole world is run by manic-depressive personality types that can't think for themselves. And they are paid outrageous sums to put our world at risk. As for investment markets - if anyone has been reading up on any of the forward thinking investment managers above, they are all pretty much drooling over the investment opportunities they are seeing. The doom and gloomers though have got the snowball rolling - it's just as bad as the rule of the "spend as if there's no tomorrow" crowd we've had to endure for the last few years. And if you are prone to believing what you read about most analysts predictions - this is what a coworker always gets a great laugh over - note their astounding success rate. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aseTfSt7Kjvg Oil May Fall as U.S. Inventories Rise, Survey Shows "...The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004. Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week. " And people make decisions, like laying off staff, based on this repetitive but mindless reporting. (If you hear something enough times - from seemingly credible sources - you start to believe it.) Last edited by KC; 17-01-2009 at 09:16 AM..